raila has lost these elections

[KenyanPlato]

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now I need to start campaigns to be mp in 2027. it is a sad ending to Mzee Raila. I have campaigned for him vigorously on Githunguri but the voters are so determined to punish uhuru.,they are voting for ruto to despise uhuru. it is what it I'd. Ruto must be careful to deliver or these voters will turn on him in 2027

[patel]

I have no doubt Ruto will deliver beyond our expectations. Good thing with Ruto he is able to listen to diverse ideas. He is no intimidated by people who are smarter than him. He is quick to engage and acknowledge experts.  I hope Ndii get a senior position to drive economic agenda. Kenya will rise.

[Fairandbalanced]

[KenyanPlato]

well said my exact thoughts. we will see.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Senior Wezi Uhuru and Raila are despised by all Kenyans, Kikuyus leading the way. The only hope for Kenya now and into the future is one RVHH senior because even on his worst day, he will deliver more than Kibaki. Kenya is simple to manage- all you need is a working brain, someone with a legitimate degree, sober, unmatched integrity, and capable of putting together a competent team to turn the economy around.

[KenyanPlato]

Senior Wezi Uhuru and Raila are despised by all Kenyans, Kikuyus leading the way. The only hope for Kenya now and into the future is one RVHH senior because even on his worst day, he will deliver more than Kibaki. Kenya is simple to manage- all you need is a working brain, someone with a legitimate degree, sober, unmatched integrity, and capable of putting together a competent team to turn the economy around.

is ruto your brother?

[Fairandbalanced]

Stop selling Ruto like the second coming of Jesus Christ, we are not buying it. I just saw somewhere that Mane of Liverpool has used his money to transform his whole village. I have asked you to show me any tangible changes Ruto has done for his neighbors in all his years in government and money. This has been met with total silence cause outside of his gate is a shithole.

[Githunguri]

I just hate people who get moved by crowds or street opinions.The people who will vote Ruto are old Kikuyu AIPCA women and young kikuyu boys who chew muguka and drink cheap liquor.Otherwise,50% kikuyu are voting Raila Amollo Odinga.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I just hate people who get moved by crowds or street opinions.The people who will vote Ruto are old Kikuyu AIPCA women and young kikuyu boys who chew muguka and drink cheap liquor.Otherwise,50% kikuyu are voting Raila Amollo Odinga.

If Raila get 55% of Kikuyu, he will lose even badly. Right now, he need solid 65% to survive. Coast, Luhyas, and RV will drop numbers NEVER seen for Dr Ruto. Everywhere else will be fifty fifty

[RV Pundit]

Agreed- he now need 60 percent of GEMA just to go even with Ruto because he is losing coast every day- and ukambani is soft-

I just hate people who get moved by crowds or street opinions.The people who will vote Ruto
If Raila get 55% of Kikuyu, he will lose even badly. Right now, he need solid 65% to survive. Coast, Luhyas, and RV will drop numbers NEVER seen for Dr Ruto. Everywhere else will be fifty fifty

[RV Pundit]

You think voters are stupid to trust Ruto - who has been in politics since 1990s. Ruto has delivered, won the trust of voters, starting from eldoret north, to kalenjin, to gema, to rest of the country.

Even before CDF - Ruto changed the face of Eldoret North schools - from mud structures to modern buildings - and when cdf came he was always in top 10 of best performing. That enable him to win 3 terms

Stop selling Ruto like the second coming of Jesus Christ, we are not buying it. I just saw somewhere that Mane of Liverpool has used his money to transform his whole village. I have asked you to show me any tangible changes Ruto has done for his neighbors in all his years in government and money. This has been met with total silence cause outside of his gate is a shithole.

[RV Pundit]

Martha was the last card to play in GEMA and it's been rejected. It's over for Raila. He made a bet that has misfired. He thought he'd win over GEMA so abandoned his reliable base...which Ruto has inherited.

now I need to start campaigns to be mp in 2027. it is a sad ending to Mzee Raila. I have campaigned for him vigorously on Githunguri but the voters are so determined to punish uhuru.,they are voting for ruto to despise uhuru. it is what it I'd. Ruto must be careful to deliver or these voters will turn on him in 2027

[RV Pundit]

50 percent is not enough if he is losing his base.

I just hate people who get moved by crowds or street opinions.The people who will vote Ruto are old Kikuyu AIPCA women and young kikuyu boys who chew muguka and drink cheap liquor.Otherwise,50% kikuyu are voting Raila Amollo Odinga.

[Pragmatic]

Agreed- he now need 60 percent of GEMA just to go even with Ruto because he is losing coast every day- and ukambani is soft-

I just hate people who get moved by crowds or street opinions.The people who will vote Ruto
If Raila get 55% of Kikuyu, he will lose even badly. Right now, he need solid 65% to survive. Coast, Luhyas, and RV will drop numbers NEVER seen for Dr Ruto. Everywhere else will be fifty fifty

[patel]

Njamba is from Centro ndani ndani kabisa..deep in there..and he has told you conclusively Raila at best has only 20% of the vote. So where are you getting +30% of vote.  Coast same case, western still bleeding. Ukambani Kalonzo has refused to share 3 billions loot. Raila has no path to presidency period.

Agreed- he now need 60 percent of GEMA just to go even with Ruto because he is losing coast every day- and ukambani is soft-

I just hate people who get moved by crowds or street opinions.The people who will vote Ruto
If Raila get 55% of Kikuyu, he will lose even badly. Right now, he need solid 65% to survive. Coast, Luhyas, and RV will drop numbers NEVER seen for Dr Ruto. Everywhere else will be fifty fifty

[RV Pundit]

You just need an excel - some 30 minutes - and you will realize Raila is kaput.
I have run all sort of scenarios - with Raila scoring 20, 30, 40, 50 percent of GEMA
Last time he needed 49 percent of GEMA to go even with Ruto.
Now he loosing coast, ukambani is soft, and western continue to hamorrage, so he need 60 percent in GEMA.
Rift valley remember is 14 counties...Kalenjin are all of them except Turkana and Samburu.
For example. Unless Raila is getting more than 50% of Kikuyus in Nakuru - he cant beat Ruto - who starts with 35 percent of Nakuru.
The same in Narok, Tranzoia.
Maybe Kajiado, Turkana and Samburu can go 50-50...Realistic speaking Ruto has an edge in those...except Kajiado.
So you can see if we add you own county Bungoma...where kalenjin are 10% already...Ruto has  an almost solid 15 counties that he beat Raila.
The 7 odd dry counties from Tana River,Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo to Marsabit....are going to be 50:50;
Ruto takes 3: Raila takes 4.

I am not going to add 8 GEMA counties...let assume Raila has a slight edge in GEMA - he is at 55% (Just for the fun of it)

Ruto is now ahead with 18 counties- he just now need 6 counties where he beat Raila to win...Vihiga madvd will deliver that one.

Ruto just need 5 more counties - I think he has flipped Kwale.

Ruto just need 3 more counties - to get to 24 counties.

Now go back to GEMA 8 - at 60% percent - give Raila 5; Ruto 3

Ruto is at 24 counties.

In short Raila when you sit down and realistic assess popularity of Ruto; Raila need 60 percent of GEMA to go 50-50 with Ruto.

Unless you try like YuleMzee to claim Ruto wills score 15 percent in Gusii and Western

Realistically Ruto is doing 50% in Western; He is also doing very well in Ukambani; He is doing very well in Coast; He is doing very well in Northern Kenya.He is doing way better in Gusii now. Raila has slight edge in those places but RV alone will handle his lead. Maybe Nairobi is the big one...

The scenarios are somewhere in this forum