How much GEMA votes does Ruto need to win now: 40 percent.

[RV Pundit]

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This maths I did one year ago - when Ruto was running kisolo - refer to MOASS thread -  1st page.


Now Ruto has got Weta, MaDVD, Kingi and Mutua - and most importantly is doing way better in Ukambani and coast than I imagined.



Refer to MOASS Thread Page 1.


Scenario 003 - Ruto versus 50 percent-  Overally I see 2 percent gain from Jubilee 2022 - with GEMA stratified.

Total expected votes 15,170,163
 
Ruto with 50 percent of GEMA - 6,738,067 (44%)   
Ruto with 60 percent of GEMA - 7,224,253 (48%)   
Ruto with 70 percent of GEMA -  7,701,926 (51%)   
Ruto with 80 percent of GEMA -  8,148,769 (54%)   
Ruto with 90 percent of GEMA -  8,564,128  (56%

Conclusion
1) Outside GEMA, I see small improvement everywhere compared to Uhuru except in Gusii (Nyamira/Kisii) and Kajiado where Ruto will perform worse than Uhuru -  Uhuru had 55 of Nyamira - I see Ruto dropping 20 percent - to 35 percent thanks Matiangi wars. Kajiado Jubilee are influenced by GEMA and are confused on where to go now. The other half is solidly NASA.

2) Ruto will do well in Kalenjin counties including West Pokot. Let see Gideon Moi gameplan - it hazy - but he can only get few votes in Baringo and West Pokot.

3) I see Ruto doing well in Kamatusa except in Kajiado. Capturing Nanok - will see improvement from 39 percent to I think 69 percent in Turkana - while settling NAROK restlessness with Mau/Kipsigis - will see small improvement - it was 50-50 with Raila thanks to Kalenjin/Kikuyu vote - with Maasai voting Raila 3:1. I see Ruto going 1:1 with Raila - considering Ruto failure to win over Narok senator Ole Kina. But Ruto has won over Purko - the most popolous- who were unhappy with governor seat going to Tunai.

4) I think NEP will vote almost at the same level - didnt bother to tinker with that - Ruto will do better than Uhuru but it wont change much.

5) Ruto will do better than Uhuru in coast...especially Kwale and Taita Taveta...also see improvement in Kilifi and Mombasa.

6) I see mt kenya turnout dropping to around 80 percent from 87 - and Kalenjin improving from 80 to 87 percent - Luos will remain there if not depressed - excitment level we shall see - if it will rise with Uhuru fuzy games. So far excitment in Nyanza and NASA region is subdued - Kichwa Mbaya is good indicator. The only people I see really excited about 2022 are Kalenjin.

7) Western - Jubilee improved in 2017 - compared to disaster of 2013 (mademoni debacle) - where they got 4 percent Jubilee Tawe - to as much as 18 percent - I see Ruto improving that to 25 percent. It worst ROI but that is political life.

Most importantly Ruto only need 70 percent of GEMA to win PORK

If he get as much GEMA support as Uhuru did - he will win with 56 percent - or 8.5m - or even 58 percent if the turnout is sustained.

If Ruto get another of NASA principles -  2% (Weta), MaDVD(4 %), Kalonzo(8%) - then percentages increase by those margins. It possible MaDVD has moved to 6 percent - considering Raila has lost Western soul - he is just left with fringes.

Ruto if he get Weta - will only need 60 percent of GEMA to win.

Ruto if he get maDVD - will only need 50 percent of GEMA to win.

Ruto if he get Kalonzo - will only need 40 percent of GEMA to win.


Next Scenario : How much Kalenjin can improve their voter registration numbers? Can they match GEMA who registered 60 percent of their total population? And what percentage would Ruto gain from that.


GEMA has 5 percent advantage from registration (roughly 27 percent of national vote) compared to their population (roughly 23 percent).

Ruto if he works on registering 60 percent ( demographics allowing) - will have 4m kalenjin votes. But Mt Kenya demographics is in transition - I' think Kalenjin adult are probably 50:50 - so best is to get 3.3 million votes - assuming Kalenjin population is now close to 6.7 - adding about 150K kids per annum.

[RV Pundit]

Let me break it down.
GEMA population is about 23% - 17.5% kikuyu,4.5% meru, Embu/Mbeere 1%.
Due to their population structure (more adults than kids) & higher turnout - their national voters share is higher - at 28% (rough estimate of 2017)
If turnout is subdued by 10% - that will slice off 2.8%
So this election GEMA is 25% of the total expected voters nationally...about the size of entire rift valley province.

50% of that 12.5%....

The gap btw Jubilee and NASA in 2017 was about 9-10%.
If Ruto loses half GEMA(12.5%) but retain the rest of Jubilee he would be around 54.5% - 12.5% - (42%)

But we know Ruto has gained by campaigning for 5yrs nationally - all over - with Hustler Revolution - so give and take - 3-4% - like he helped Jubilee in 2017 improve from 51% to 55% (rounding off).

So Ruto essentially with half GEMA is 45%. That is UDA Ruto - that for argument sake has lost 50% of GEMA

And that is without Kenya Kwanza.

Weta brings Bukusu votes...he has never run but he is influential in Bukusu who are the largest subtribe in Luhyaland (give him 2% nationally - I think Bukusu are 5% nationally - maDVD last time got 1% - Ruto already has had his play - so I think he really add Ruto 2%)
MaDVD brings Maragoli and other Luhyas...he got 4-5% in 2013. It didn't quite show in NASA - who improve slightly because Raila like he does hammorage more votes than maDVD brough to NASA from Amani caolition.

So at 45% UDA  with half GEMA (for argument sake) - with MaDVD 5% - Ruto is already 50% - with Weta - he is at 52%.

Ruto still has little play from Mutua & Kingi (latest acquisition maybe worth 1% nationally) - to afford to lose another 10% of GEMA (3%) - and still win by 51% - a whisker.

In Short for Raila to go 50-50 with RUto - he better be playing around 60% of GEMA.

But reality - Ruto is not losing 50% of GEMA. Ruto is losing 20-30% of GEMA - that about 7.5% nationally- so he essentially starts at 54.5% - minus 7.5% ---which is around 47% of 2017 as his UDA base.

[RV Pundit]

Raila maths at 45% in 2017 - was more simple.
Try to get at least 6-7% more to go 52%.
That would require 20-30% of GEMA.
GEMA at 25% - 10% is 2.5% - 20% is 5% - 30% is 7.5%.

VERY EASY MATHS. RETAIN NASA. GET 30% of GEMA. BECOME PORK

So yes Raila got the maths right - he needed 30% of GEMA - that would give him 7.5% vote nationally to go to 52%

BUT BIG MISTAKE HE FORGOT HE MUST RETAIN HIS BASE.

Now if he gains 7.5% (30% of GEMA) and has lost 7.5% of NASA - it means he now needs another 7.5% from GEMA - to compensate.

He must therefore get 60% from GEMA to compensate for the loses he has endured in his base....so he can go 51 versus 50 with Ruto or something that  close.

If he aint getting 60% of GEMA - then he must somehow in the next one month - rediscover his NASA base

Both scenarios we know are clearly unlikely but he has a month to beg or bribe maDVD, Weta, Kingi, Nanok, Muthama and all those leaders as a start - and to appease NASA voters by not appearing to run for Uhuru 3rd term - because right now he is gaining 8% in GEMA (BIG IFF- it could be a disaster of 15%) and losing 8%.

I dont know how GEMA will vote - but definitely Martha is struggling - Uhuru has gone MIA - and we have a month to go.