Author Topic: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis  (Read 3011 times)

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #40 on: August 18, 2022, 02:12:02 PM »
If I asked you before election - you'd have gotten very violent. Nope you're wrong. Jubilee lost in all polling stations in Mt kenya almost. That was HUGE statement. It has nothing to do with family feuds. It's was huge protest votes on Uhuru & elite behaviour that many found utterly disgusting and revolting.

I could tell you that for free. he is hated by his extended family due to land issues. remember kenyatta was living in his maternal grandparents land and only relocated to gatundu once he got power and money. he punished those relative heavily and the locals resent him for that
does it matter as I said before moas predict the obvious but the complex it missed that why the complex areas where hustler rhetoric and tribe doesn't matter you failed in your predictions

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #41 on: August 18, 2022, 02:12:45 PM »
I was bullish on kiambu but it is because I thought turnout would be in the 80s

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #42 on: August 18, 2022, 02:14:31 PM »

I rarely say this... Njamba is a Joke.....ignore him...This is nonsence...

We are discussing the results as is. Try to understand them from 9th August. You're stuck in old theories. We have the results. We need to understand the results. Why did Ufool lose in Ichwari polling station?
when I get time I will show why assumptions and experience campaigning for raila may be onto something..listening to different ideas is what you suck at
I could tell you that for free. he is hated by his extended family due to land issues. remember kenyatta was living in his maternal grandparents land and only relocated to gatundu once he got power and money. he punished those relative heavily and the locals resent him for that

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #43 on: August 18, 2022, 02:15:16 PM »
2013 - Mandera was URP - and Uhuru got 90% of the vote - with crazy turnout. Tha time Ruto had hit jackpot because all Mandera clans elders had agreed to power sharing deal - and had agreed to back URP. No real election happen - JUST massive rigging.

2017 - Clan elders disagreed - Roba & team remained in Jubilee - I think Ruto stuck with his crew - former RV PC Hassan formed PDR - and Uhuru had no option except allow them. Jubilee still won.

2022 - Biggest move was Uhuru appointing current Finance Minister - the 1st Borana-Somali - to such a powerful position - he was dishing position to them - and the Somalis & Boranas clan elders and leaders - naturally trooped to him. He formed UPIA thing. Eventually Ufool seeing he had no play told him to fold up UPIA and join Jubilee.  Those like Roba who didnt want to join Jubilee - bought UDM.

So this time round Uhuru & Finance Minister had most of the clan elders and leaders.

And in twist of fate - UDM which Ruto formed in 1990s - went to NEP - and PDR that they formed became UDA.


I have to agree with you. In 2017 Uhuru agreed for Mandera to form PDR current UDA . He said he had to do that because clan elders said they wantee their own party. He nonetheless got the Presidential votes and Mps from PDR
They formed UDM this time around. Still dont tell me Ruto didnt know this.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #44 on: August 18, 2022, 05:53:34 PM »
Will next analyze Women Rep/Senator/Gov

Offline yulemsee

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #45 on: August 18, 2022, 08:54:30 PM »
MOASS had predicted 55% versus 45% with 1% for others - it came down to 48.8% versus 50.5% with less than 1%

In county breakdown - about half are spot on - within acceptable margin of error - which pretty awesome.

The biggest dilemma in this election was Mt Kenya - I nailed it. The exception was Kirinyanga where I expected twin force of Martha-Kibicho would dent some votes - in the end - they lost even in their own polling stations - pretty embarrasing.

I also nailed Gusii. Clearly Kalenjin & Luo were no brainer.

Clearly over-estimated Ruto in-roads in Luhya, Ukambani, Maa and Coast by factor of 15% (10-20%)

I believe something is wrong (massive rigging due to lack of UDA agents) in Mandera, Turkana and Garissa - and pockets of Marsabit, Wajir
and such places.

Quick scan of some areas - shows Ruto scoring 0 - in places like North Horr, Ijara and etc - where unsurprisingly there are no UDA agents - whenever they are agents - he is doing 40-50% of the votes.

Turnout I had estimated 72% turnout - with manual register (This historical Trend with an increasingly outdated register). On ever of election the crossing of names in the manual register was disallowed by court of appeal - this what aided rigging as folks knew who had not voted - and I had expected another 5 percent drop - so the turnout is within what I expected.

Rigging which happened - is basically crude form - where they were no agents in Northern Kenya - or in Luo Nyanza where numbers were carelessly and criminally inflated exceeded the total registered votes.
Very good chart, good presentation skills. Also good to see you do post mortem, Omollo by now would be MIA after giving tall tale reasons like he has been posted to a remote european outpost without internet.
We both got the turnouts wrong by a mile
You beat me in Gussi and Bungoma a good one, I beat you in rest of western and ukambani.
I got it completely wrong in Mlimani, especially Mt. Kenya East.
What went down in Lamu, Baba taking Lamu was an upset although very few votes to have an impact

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Postmortem -> MOAS versus IEBC 2022 analysis
« Reply #46 on: August 18, 2022, 09:16:26 PM »
Thanks Yule Mzee. You did well in Kakamega and Ukambani. You clearly underrated Ruto in Gusii. I still dont understand how Ruto got just 25% with all the work that Khawale and team did there. The same for Vihiga. Ruto well double the votes from 2017 - but maDVD clearly UNDELIVERED.
Yes Lamu, Kajiado, Tranzoia and Samburu - I would have expected Ruto to win - Raila narrowly won. I believe this impact of System and

Deep State - using Chiefs, relief food and rigging - that gave Raila slight lead - in all these areas that are remote and barren.

Very good chart, good presentation skills. Also good to see you do post mortem, Omollo by now would be MIA after giving tall tale reasons like he has been posted to a remote european outpost without internet.
We both got the turnouts wrong by a mile
You beat me in Gussi and Bungoma a good one, I beat you in rest of western and ukambani.
I got it completely wrong in Mlimani, especially Mt. Kenya East.
What went down in Lamu, Baba taking Lamu was an upset although very few votes to have an impact