Kalonzo sends excel format to IEBC - and will appear with Ruto this saturday

[Pajero]

Highest percentage he will do is about 15% in machakos,rural kitui and makueni will be about 10%.Kambas are like ,Luos,Kalenjins,they move in one basket.

[RV Pundit]

So i trust your own opinion poll done in bar   They give good raw data; and if they are many; you can tell which one is credible; then we work from there; and refine;

Dont trust opinion polls. They are in for Business.

[RV Pundit]

But kikuyus wont move in one basket?

Highest percentage he will do is about 15% in machakos,rural kitui and makueni will be about 10%.Kambas are like ,Luos,Kalenjins,they move in one basket.

[Nowayhaha]

RV you know Ive been in politics for a very longtime . Ive maintained since time memorial Ruto will win by 56% . Wewe uliyoka 60+% and now you are at 55%.
We both predicted Mudavadi and Wetangula would join Ruto.
Why would you then doubt me when I point out the obvious truth.

So i trust your own opinion poll done in bar   They give good raw data; and if they are many; you can tell which one is credible; then we work from there; and refine;

Dont trust opinion polls. They are in for Business.

[RV Pundit]

I dont doubt you anecdotal evidence; I am just more inclined to work with empirical evidence however poisoned; at least I have strong basis to begin with; I check all the many opinion polls; if they say the same story; that is good basis; if they are consisent; that is good; sometimes they are all over the places; that is redflag
Politics is very dynamic;
You'd be a genius to predict all the moves;
Watch for me Mijikenda while down at coast...let see if Kingi move will have some impact.
And Ruto talking big about Land and SGR.

RV you know Ive been in politics for a very longtime . Ive maintained since time memorial Ruto will win by 56% . Wewe uliyoka 60+% and now you are at 55%.
We both predicted Mudavadi and Wetangula would join Ruto.
Why would you then doubt me when I point out the obvious truth.

[Pajero]

You see what I mean when I say you smoke weed.55% of possible 16 million voters is about 9M.So you are saying Ruto will ganner 9 million votes.Now,let's start with the so called perceived stronghold s of central and Kalenjin Rift.Central has 3.1 registered voters,with a turn out of 70%,we are likely to see only 2.1M people vote.Give Ruto 70% if this which is 1.4M.
We go to Kalenjin Rift with a combined vote of about 2.2M.With voters turn out of 80%,about 1.6M will vote with Ruto getting 90% if this,which is about 1.5M.
Now add 1.4M ya central and 1.5 M ya wa kale and you get 2.9M votes.As per your MOA,s,Ruto is winning with 9M votes,the deficiet is 6.1M votes.Where is Ruto getting this 6.1M from.???????
Please,revise your numbers,55% is not making sense.

[Pajero]

You see what I mean when I say you smoke weed.55% of possible 16 million voters is about 9M.So you are saying Ruto will ganner 9 million votes.Now,let's start with the so called perceived stronghold s of central and Kalenjin Rift.Central has 3.1 registered voters,with a turn out of 70%,we are likely to see only 2.1M people vote.Give Ruto 70% if this which is 1.4M.
We go to Kalenjin Rift with a combined vote of about 2.2M.With voters turn out of 80%,about 1.6M will vote with Ruto getting 90% if this,which is about 1.5M.
Now add 1.4M ya central and 1.5 M ya wa kale and you get 2.9M votes.As per your MOA,s,Ruto is winning with 9M votes,the deficiet is 6.1M votes.Where is Ruto getting this 6.1M from.???????
Please,revise your numbers,55% is not making sense.

[Pajero]

Even if Ruto gets the entire Coast, western,Nyanza,Nairobi,still he can't bridge the 6.1M deficiet,lying requires some intelligence bwana,dint just throw numbers for sake of it.Ruto CANNOT get 56%.

[Nowayhaha]

In a different thread you mentioned whats the total  electorate numeber of GEMA ?

Even if Ruto gets the entire Coast, western,Nyanza,Nairobi,still he can't bridge the 6.1M deficiet,lying requires some intelligence bwana,dint just throw numbers for sake of it.Ruto CANNOT get 56%.

[Pajero]

Gema registered are about 6.2M spread across thus way central 3.1,Upper eastern 1.4,Nairobi 1M,Rift valley 1M.
Now on any given day,about 70% will turn out to vote which is about 4.5M.Of this 4.5Raila anakula yake 40% which is about 2M.Ruto anabaki na 2.5M.

[RV Pundit]

You're swinging wildly btw anger, acceptance, bargaining ; it going be though before you accept that WSR has won this thing.

Gema registered are about 6.2M spread across thus way central 3.1,Upper eastern 1.4,Nairobi 1M,Rift valley 1M.
Now on any given day,about 70% will turn out to vote which is about 4.5M.Of this 4.5Raila anakula yake 40% which is about 2M.Ruto anabaki na 2.5M.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit what you are ignoring is that Kalonzo is not going to run around the country with Raila.. but will focus on Ukambani. He will do serious damage to Ruto there. You saw in Machakos senate by-election. Poor Muthama was no match.

Another thing: saying Ruto will exceed Jubilee 2017 is a poor basis. Ruto is much more loathed by Kamba than Uhuru... especially by Kalonzo and the venomous Ngilu. His hard-nosed approach I guess threatens them, unlike Uhuru or Raila soft or hands-off approach.

Azimio know Ruto is salivating for Kamba.. and will unveil Kalonzo 3-leg deal as the new covenant. Even Ngilu & Kibwana have gone soft or stopped attacking him. Safe bet for Ruto is 15% like Machakos.

[Nefertiti]

There is no way @WilliamsRuto picked the DO for running mate out of his own free will, he must have been held hostage in some type of way. Otherwise, how else would anyone justify a choice that loses you votes every time he opens his mouth to speak? Disastrous. pic.twitter.com/f6ZjXlTCJl

— Charity Ngilu (@mamangilu) May 30, 2022

[Nefertiti]

Dear Kenyans, these are not gaffes. This is exactly who the other side is, after all, he is their number two. When you vote please remember that. Also, please remember, it’s your money they are talking about. pic.twitter.com/bPfllq5zNq

— Charity Ngilu (@mamangilu) May 30, 2022

[RV Pundit]

You sound desperate - opinion polls have routinely shown Ruto sometimes leading Ukambani - mostly at 40 percent - UDA is second most popular party - and has fielded in every MCA, MP, name it seat ukambani. That tell you candidates know UDA and Ruto are second best after missing wiper - meaning Ruto is doing very well.

Ruto will improve because he has Muthama and Mutua in Machakos - in addition to Kawayas and Munyakas. Hapo ako sawa Machakos...which is biggest in Ukambani.

The rest he will do good or bad depending on church network. I know in 2010 referendum - Nos won due to the church.

What is basis of 15 or 5 percent if not wishful thinking. Kalonzo in all opinion polls is doing very very badly in Ukambani - being beaten by Raila and Ruto. That is not someone who will be doing damage - he will be doing damage control - explaining why he is not DPORK or PORK - why he is making Kambas the subject of ridicule - mara this mara that. That is going to be hard to explain - unless kambas are Luos who will follow odinga and will ask how high.

So even if you half opinion polls - Ruto is doing very well. You can also check popular social media with kambas - UDA and Ruto are popular - because there are kambas tired with Kalonzo directionless politics.

For me Ukambani will remain the wild card of 2022 - expect anything because it totally muddy. Opinion polls generally show Ruto doing very well but I am cautious. Nobody knows the direction two months to the election.

Pundit what you are ignoring is that Kalonzo is not going to run around the country with Raila.. but will focus on Ukambani. He will do serious damage to Ruto there. You saw in Machakos senate by-election. Poor Muthama was no match.

Another thing: saying Ruto will exceed Jubilee 2017 is a poor basis. Ruto is much more loathed by Kamba than Uhuru... especially by Kalonzo and the venomous Ngilu. His hard-nosed approach I guess threatens them, unlike Uhuru or Raila soft or hands-off approach.

Azimio know Ruto is salivating for Kamba.. and will unveil Kalonzo 3-leg deal as the new covenant. Even Ngilu & Kibwana have gone soft or stopped attacking him. Safe bet for Ruto is 15% like Machakos.