Author Topic: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense  (Read 1210 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« on: May 24, 2022, 10:33:30 PM »
Look like almost everywhere is a tight contest :)

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-05-24-ruto-has-slight-lead-in-tight-race-with-raila-poll/

Ruto is still leading Raila in Central Province with 52 percent support compared to 32.2 percent although the gap between them has shrunk from 40 percent to 20 percent in the last six months.

Ruto also leads in North Rift with 68.9 percent compared to 22.6, in South Rift with 51.5 percent compared to 35.1, and in Upper Eastern with 58.6 percent against 27.8.

Elsewhere Raila leads although often the race is very close. At the Coast, Raila has 49.7 percent against 39.1 percent for Ruto; in Lower Eastern, Raila has 37.4 percent against Ruto's 35.2.

In in Nairobi, Raila has 53.4 percent against 34.3 for Ruto; in North Eastern, Raila has 46.6 percent against 40.4; in Western Raila leads by 44.8 percent to 38.8; and in Nyanza he holds a commanding lead of 69.6 percent against Ruto's 17.17 percent.

Offline Pajero

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2022, 10:48:38 PM »
Polls are very much okay,what's your issue with the polls????

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2022, 10:53:57 PM »
First all the four pollsters are showing their own things....
I would expect with less than 3 months to go...they would at least be in agreement...in many areas.
Secondly you should be very worried - for anyone ahead in Kalenjin and GEMA -
And then being very very close in other areas - means we are looking at Ruto winning by 55 percent plus

For now in terms of credibility
I am going with Mizani - they do very large samples for every county - and they sample every const.
Their record in UDA nomination was pretty good.

Tifa second.
The Star Third.




Useless Raila's InfoTrak - who did Nation poll.

Polls are very much okay,what's your issue with the polls????

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2022, 11:01:14 PM »
Once again I state a fact . Kenyan Opinion polls have never predicted correctly any Kenyan poll. Trust them at your own peril.

Offline Pajero

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2022, 11:04:11 PM »
Fungua pollstar yako.Polls are ok,6 out of 8 regions.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2022, 11:08:09 PM »
Except when you put average expected turnout - you will get beaten like Burukhenge
That is when you discover not all regions are the same.
Some region turn up at 60 percent - some will be almost 90 percent
There is no prize for guessing the laggards - Western, Coast, Gusii, Northern Kenya.
You lead there - minus 30% for turnout.
That is how Kibaki won with one region and Uhuru is finishing two terms with two regions.
Fungua pollstar yako.Polls are ok,6 out of 8 regions.

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2022, 11:21:01 PM »

False, Kibaki won Central,Eastern , North Eastern and Nairobi
Uhuru won Rift Valley, Central Eastern and North Eastern.
Now if you go country wise you will even be suprised how badly Raila was beaten in 2007,2013 and 2017.
Again why do people use regions which are not part of Kenyan constituion. Its either being plain lazy or dumb.


Except when you put average expected turnout - you will get beaten like Burukhenge
That is when you discover not all regions are the same.
Some region turn up at 60 percent - some will be almost 90 percent
There is no prize for guessing the laggards - Western, Coast, Gusii, Northern Kenya.
You lead there - minus 30% for turnout.
That is how Kibaki won with one region and Uhuru is finishing two terms with two regions.
Fungua pollstar yako.Polls are ok,6 out of 8 regions.

Offline GeeMail

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2022, 05:41:40 PM »

False, Kibaki won Central,Eastern , North Eastern and Nairobi
Uhuru won Rift Valley, Central Eastern and North Eastern.
Now if you go country wise you will even be suprised how badly Raila was beaten in 2007,2013 and 2017.
Again why do people use regions which are not part of Kenyan constituion. Its either being plain lazy or dumb.


Except when you put average expected turnout - you will get beaten like Burukhenge
That is when you discover not all regions are the same.
Some region turn up at 60 percent - some will be almost 90 percent
There is no prize for guessing the laggards - Western, Coast, Gusii, Northern Kenya.
You lead there - minus 30% for turnout.
That is how Kibaki won with one region and Uhuru is finishing two terms with two regions.
Fungua pollstar yako.Polls are ok,6 out of 8 regions.

Nowayaya dont cite 2013 or 2017 election numbers in any public place knowing they were super rigged. Why did Maraga send the thieving couple back to debe? Cite those numbers in private conversation with pundit maybe but not public.
Celebratory violence: 2017 crime invented to justify killings to prevent Raila from becoming PORK. http://www.nipate.com/download/file.php?id=4244

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2022, 05:49:35 PM »
2013 passed clean test; 2017 nobody impugned the numbers; No nasa; no the court; processes
Nowayaya dont cite 2013 or 2017 election numbers in any public place knowing they were super rigged. Why did Maraga send the thieving couple back to debe? Cite those numbers in private conversation with pundit maybe but not public.

Offline Nowayhaha

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2022, 07:06:52 PM »
Maraga claimed it was the process .
Raila will lose Aug 09 elections and you will also claim it was rigged.
Fact I repeat No opinion polls in Kenya have ever predicted any election correctly.


False, Kibaki won Central,Eastern , North Eastern and Nairobi
Uhuru won Rift Valley, Central Eastern and North Eastern.
Now if you go country wise you will even be suprised how badly Raila was beaten in 2007,2013 and 2017.
Again why do people use regions which are not part of Kenyan constituion. Its either being plain lazy or dumb.


Except when you put average expected turnout - you will get beaten like Burukhenge
That is when you discover not all regions are the same.
Some region turn up at 60 percent - some will be almost 90 percent
There is no prize for guessing the laggards - Western, Coast, Gusii, Northern Kenya.
You lead there - minus 30% for turnout.
That is how Kibaki won with one region and Uhuru is finishing two terms with two regions.
Fungua pollstar yako.Polls are ok,6 out of 8 regions.

Nowayaya dont cite 2013 or 2017 election numbers in any public place knowing they were super rigged. Why did Maraga send the thieving couple back to debe? Cite those numbers in private conversation with pundit maybe but not public.

Offline Pajero

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2022, 07:18:23 PM »
Okay,Baba will loose,let's close this chapter 🤦it's becoming boring.Ruto is walking straight to SH.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2022, 07:36:05 PM »
Of course it rather obvious that beating Ruto is only possible in a totally rigged process;
Okay,Baba will loose,let's close this chapter 🤦it's becoming boring.Ruto is walking straight to SH.

Offline Pajero

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Re: Some of these opinion polls dont make sense
« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2022, 07:51:30 PM »
It's okay,tumekubali boss.