Sakaja need a very good GEMA running mate - he should besiege Moses Kuria and convince him to run as his deputy.
Someone who can rally GEMA - otherwise Igathe has good start if he gets Luo and Kambas on board.
Now that biggest problem for Raila is not governorship but the other seats - when MOU btw Luo and Luhyas is broken - then Luhyas will generally vote with GEMA - for mostly GEMA candidate - instead of what they normally do - voting for mostly Luo candidates - with a few token thrown their way...(normally Makadara and Westland)
So UDA is greatest beneficiary. Sakaja has to be careful not become the collatoral.
The way I see - Igathe start strong with most Luos & kambs.
Sakaja start strong with Luhyas and rest of Nairobeans who see Igathe as project.
So at that point each candidate is at 30%.
Whoever get majority of GEMA wins.
Sakaja can get majority if GEMA vote blindly for UDA - but they may not. Igathe is good brand name in GEMA coming from Equity and solid proffesional. GEMA may feel inclined to give him a chance...considering they wont have PORK in Nairobi.
Therefore Sakaja need a very very good running mate (who can paint Igathe as a Kenyatta personal project as opposed to being a GEMA project)- who can do 50-50 power sharing for governship.
Looking at the field...I can only think about Moses Kuria. Who else? I cannot see any GEMA Nairobeans well known in city politics...Sakaja-Moses Kuria anchored on 50-50 power sharing will sail through.
I mean these says I the so called party thinktanks are either drunk in power or simply get bribed.
You dont lock out Nairobi Luhyas like that while your oponent is giving them another Luhya Candidate.
Actaully the best person to lock out Sakaja would have been another Luhya . Just like ODM did with Woman rep in 2017 Where Passaris got full backing of Anti Gema votes and topped up a few of Gema vote .
Jubilee played the same with Sakaja vs Sifuna . Sakaja got Gema votes ans topped a little bit of Luhya votes.
Now its full throttle for Sakaja he will get majority of GEMA votes and majority of Luhya votes. Kamba votes who are substantial will go Kalokis way but wont change the traction .Lets see who Sakaja will chose as rhe running mate.
Just relocate to Bungoma and aim for 2027...Kazi ya Raila ni ufala