GEMA MPs.. UDA 60 vs 30 Azimio

[Nefertiti]

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Not nearly a clean sweep unlike the euphoria on nipate. 7 vs 3 split

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/uhuru-mt-kenya-friends-allies-turn-their-backs-on-him-3785726

The Mt Kenya region has over 90 elected MPs, senators and governors, and a Nation analysis shows that President Kenyatta has lost the support of more than 60 of them.

Mt Kenya East UDA 23 vs 2 Azimio

Nakuru.. UDA 9 vs 3 Azimio

In Nakuru, only Governor Lee Kinyanjui and MPs Raymond Moi (Rongai) and Samuel Arama (Nakuru Town West) are with President Kenyatta.

MPs Jayne Kihara (Naivasha), Kimani Ngunjiri (Bahati), Samuel Gachobe (Subukia), Joseph Tonui (Kuresoi South), Moses Cheboi (Kuresoi North), Charity Kathambi (Njoro), David Gikaria (Nakuru Town East), Kuria Kimani (Molo) and Martha Wangari (Gilgil), all elected under Jubilee, have since decamped to UDA.

Kiambu.. UDA 9 vs 6 Azimio

Nyeri.. UDA 5 vs 4 Azimio

In Nyeri, President Kenyatta is supported by Senator Ephraim Maina, and MPs Ngunjiri Wambugu (Nyeri Town), Kanini Kega (Kieni) and Gichuki Mugambi (Othaya), while Dr Ruto has Governor Mutahi Kahiga, Rigathi Gachagua (Mathira), Gichuhi Mwangi (Tetu), Gathiaka Kiai (Mukurweini), and Rehab Mukami (Nyeri).

Murang'a.. UDA 4 vs 6 Azimio

Nyandarua.. UDA 3 vs 4 Azimio

Laikipia.. UDA 4 vs 2 Azimio

Kirinyaga.. UDA 3 vs 4 Azimio

In Kirinyaga, the President has the support of four elected leaders: Senator Charles Kibiru, MPs Wachira Kabinga (Mwea) and John Munene (Kirinyaga Central) and Woman Rep Purity Ngirici, while DP Ruto has Governor Anne Waiguru and MPs Githinji Robert (Gichugu) and George Kariuki (Ndia).

[RV Pundit]

In 2013 Raila had majority of Kalenjin Mps - ass minister & Ministers - and he got 2% of the vote.
These 30 mps are the sure bet to go home.
Maybe 1-2 will escape - but clearly selling Raila in Mt kenya is almost equal to committing political suicide.
Unless Jubilee was to completely distance themselves from Raila.
In short - those Mps are eating Uhuru money.
None is selling Azimio - not even Kiraitu - the moment Uhuru ask them to sell Azimio - they will part ways.
Anyway we use retention rate of 40% - that means 12mps will make it back in Jubilee.
Having not done nomination like UDA - it will be brutal when they face voters.

Jubilee in my estimate will get 20-25Mps in next election - about 10 in Mt kenya - about 10Mp in Northern Kenya (where they are very strong) - and 5 random Mps from coast/gusii.

Wiper will do worse this time round - no nominations - I expect them to lose 60% of current 22 mps - meaning they will have 10Mps.

ODM similarly will hamorrage - to something like 40Mps - Raila will have to really campaign for Six Piece Suit in Luo Nyanza to stop a rout.

Bottomline - Azimio is big joke that cannot govern a country - not with 70Mps

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Where are Uhuru MPS in RV the once home turf of Jubilee? Jubilee is now a party of a small section of GEMA

[RV Pundit]

RV he doesnt have any left MP apart from Gusii Arama of Nakuru West and Korere is Maasai of Laikipia North.
Mt Kenya East - same fate - One Mp Maoka Maore. Possibly Embu women rep last I checked was still eating Uhuru money.
In Kikuyu proper - majority of mps are from Kiambu (feeding on Kenyatta empire) & muranga (PK/Munga MKF poodles) & kirinyanga (eating Kibicho money)

In RV -
Maybe he will get Kanu seat in Tiaty and maybe 2 mps seat in West Pokot in Azimio.
Possibly 1-2 in Turkana.
Kwingine I dont see.

Where are Uhuru MPS in RV the once home turf of Jubilee? Jubilee is now a party of a small section of GEMA

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

RV he doesnt have any left MP apart from Gusii Arama of Nakuru West and Korere is Maasai of Laikipia North.
Mt Kenya East - same fate - One Mp Maoka Maore. Possibly Embu women rep last I checked was still eating Uhuru money.
In Kikuyu proper - majority of mps are from Kiambu (feeding on Kenyatta empire) & muranga (PK/Munga MKF poodles) & kirinyanga (eating Kibicho money)

In RV -
Maybe he will get Kanu seat in Tiaty and maybe 2 mps seat in West Pokot in Azimio.
Possibly 1-2 in Turkana.
Kwingine I dont see.

Where are Uhuru MPS in RV the once home turf of Jubilee? Jubilee is now a party of a small section of GEMA

If I was in Jubilee, I would eat Uhuru money too , so If losing is inevitable a least I have something. People are eating Uhuru left and right!

[Nefertiti]

Kamba is Azimio full-house.. the haemorrhage will be Wiper to Chap Chap or such not UDA. Such cut-throat intra-Azimio wars are in fact good for Raila. Nothing in Kamba remotely looks like Ruto traction... 90% Kamba leaders have refused to board UDA. It seems your argument is Kamba are angry Wiper has lost 3-leg stool to Mutua & Kibwana

The other pipe-dream is Luhya. Ati sijui Lusaka has brought Bukusu. Mdvd-Weta earthquake should have carried Luhya MPs to Ruto like Kalonzo has done. But nope - you have half the ANC & Ford-K crew crossing over. I mean how is that - they were basically following Eugene & Atwoli. Isitoshe Mdvd fool unlike Kalonzo has track-record of running on empty and getting beaten by Raila.

Gema looks like 1-2 split for Ruto.. it is not Uhuru or Gideon cash but ground. I doubt Kiunjuri is selling Ruto.. he is saying vote me and whoever. Gema will split and turn out poorly.

In 2013 Raila had majority of Kalenjin Mps - ass minister & Ministers - and he got 2% of the vote.
These 30 mps are the sure bet to go home.
Maybe 1-2 will escape - but clearly selling Raila in Mt kenya is almost equal to committing political suicide.
Unless Jubilee was to completely distance themselves from Raila.
In short - those Mps are eating Uhuru money.
None is selling Azimio - not even Kiraitu - the moment Uhuru ask them to sell Azimio - they will part ways.
Anyway we use retention rate of 40% - that means 12mps will make it back in Jubilee.
Having not done nomination like UDA - it will be brutal when they face voters.

Jubilee in my estimate will get 20-25Mps in next election - about 10 in Mt kenya - about 10Mp in Northern Kenya (where they are very strong) - and 5 random Mps from coast/gusii.

Wiper will do worse this time round - no nominations - I expect them to lose 60% of current 22 mps - meaning they will have 10Mps.

ODM similarly will hamorrage - to something like 40Mps - Raila will have to really campaign for Six Piece Suit in Luo Nyanza to stop a rout.

Bottomline - Azimio is big joke that cannot govern a country - not with 70Mps

[RV Pundit]

UDA is running nomination in Ukambani - meaning they are many candidates who want it ticket.

UDA came very close to winning MCA seat in Makueni.

As for rest of usual debate - refer to MOAS for proper well researched ballpark estimates.

Kamba is Azimio full-house.. the haemorrhage will be Wiper to Chap Chap or such not UDA. Such cut-throat intra-Azimio wars are in fact good for Raila. Nothing in Kamba remotely looks like Ruto traction... 90% Kamba leaders have refused to board UDA. It seems your argument is Kamba are angry Wiper has lost 3-leg stool to Mutua & Kibwana

The other pipe-dream is Luhya. Ati sijui Lusaka has brought Bukusu. Mdvd-Weta earthquake should have carried Luhya MPs to Ruto like Kalonzo has done. But nope - you have half the ANC & Ford-K crew crossing over. I mean how is that - they were basically following Eugene & Atwoli. Isitoshe Mdvd fool unlike Kalonzo has track-record of running on empty and getting beaten by Raila.

Gema looks like 2-3 split for Ruto.. it is not Uhuru or Gideon cash but ground. I doubt Kiunjuri is selling Ruto.. he is saying vote me and whoever. Gema will split and turn out poorly.

In 2013 Raila had majority of Kalenjin Mps - ass minister & Ministers - and he got 2% of the vote.
These 30 mps are the sure bet to go home.
Maybe 1-2 will escape - but clearly selling Raila in Mt kenya is almost equal to committing political suicide.
Unless Jubilee was to completely distance themselves from Raila.
In short - those Mps are eating Uhuru money.
None is selling Azimio - not even Kiraitu - the moment Uhuru ask them to sell Azimio - they will part ways.
Anyway we use retention rate of 40% - that means 12mps will make it back in Jubilee.
Having not done nomination like UDA - it will be brutal when they face voters.

Jubilee in my estimate will get 20-25Mps in next election - about 10 in Mt kenya - about 10Mp in Northern Kenya (where they are very strong) - and 5 random Mps from coast/gusii.

Wiper will do worse this time round - no nominations - I expect them to lose 60% of current 22 mps - meaning they will have 10Mps.

ODM similarly will hamorrage - to something like 40Mps - Raila will have to really campaign for Six Piece Suit in Luo Nyanza to stop a rout.

Bottomline - Azimio is big joke that cannot govern a country - not with 70Mps

[Nowayhaha]

Elected Mps can never be used as a Barometer for popularity . Ive tried to make this stick in Robinas head but in vain.
ODM Azimios supportes have premised Raila win by either eatimg in Rutos Votes or a low turn out in GEMA and also Rigging.
This is a poor strategy a wrong strategy which failed feom the time Uhuru refused to go vote hunting for Raila as from 2018 , the same way they got it wrong with BBI. The same wrong assumption they thought Wetangula and Mudavadi would support Raila by default. The wrong strategy of trying ro edge out Kalonzo.
GEMAs hate of Raila is engrained in their minds and thoughts. Any mention of Raila brings back memories of P.E.V.  (Kabila adui) and the fight againat Kibaki . The dirty 2013 and 2017 competition.
The only way out for Raila is to just support someone else.
If he is on the ballot Just like 2007,2013 and 2017 elections GEMA will wake up midnight and go and vote against him.
Imagine in 2017 second elections Raila boycotted the elections but still GEMA went and voted against him because his name was in the ballot.

[Githunguri]

We are in 2022 not 2017...the question should now be hoe many MPs Uhuru will get this election...10,20,30?Are they enough to protect his loot when rails wins and goes after him?