I think he is working on #2.
He is not invested in Jakom
But has invested heavily in Jubilee - rebranding, posters, billboards.
It appears he also called off his boys in their small parties - Lee, Upya, etc - and ordered them to run on Jubilee.
His gameplan for now - he wants Jubilee to get as many Mps as possible for political leverage.
Now the problem he has - Azimio is killing Jubilee in GEMA - after all that re-branding - as long as it's linked to Raila - it aint going to fly in GEMA.
Jubilee will win most seats in NFD 5 counties of Isiolo, Marsabit, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir - has good game in Turkana, Taita Taveta, Lamu and even Kisii.
That gives him a solid base of 10 counties before he gets to GEMA.
For Uhuru to get some seats in Mt kenya - he has to kiss Ruto arse.
Once he do that - Jubilee in Mt kenya will become competitive.
Otherwise for now - he can play 10 counties in pastoral region - force Raila in Nairobi to elect Jubilee candidates - and then after election where Raila get predictably thumped run to Ruto with 50Mps as political leverage.
The problem Ruto will likely have no use of him or his MPs - because he is likely to have 200Mps of his own.
So that bring him to scenario one - FOLD CAMP, GET SOME 5B Kshs to BRIBE RUTO WITH AND SHAKE HANDS - privately. Let Jakom continue to be played offside by Kioni like maDVD was done.
To make Jubilee competitive in Mt kenya - he needs to either support Ruto - or go quiet like Kibaki - become neutral - call both Raila and Ruto say may the best man win - Mt kenya will interprete that to mean he is not forcing Raila on them - and Jubilee will get 10-15mps in Mt kenya.