DRC joining EAC/EAF

[Dear Mami]

• Tweet

Haven't seen this discussed here but surely this is a big move. I'd say all the other six countries are dancing and celebrating because if the union integrates and holds in the future, DRC will have a chance to stabilize and the rest will have much to gain from its endless resources and giant population. I've read other countries have been seeking to join but have been snubbed, like Sudan and Somalia. With Sudan, I understand it might be its issues with South Sudan, but why we snubbing Somalia? Well, I suppose it's the instability. But we let South Sudan in and now DRC, so maybe the unspoken reason is good old ukabila? Maybe East Africans are weary of Horn peoples? I don't know. But it's interesting how fast S. Sudan some years ago and now DRC have been ushered in. Would we snub Ethiopia if it applied? I don't think so, given how well it's been doing (recent events notwithstanding) but we'll see.

[RV Pundit]

DRC is great move. Now bring Ethiopia on board - and we will have really big market. Somalia is a mess but if they apply why not.
DRC and Ethiopia is 200M potential market - and that will make EAC have a population of 300M. That is huge. The size of USA.

Getting Ethiopia on board should be Ruto priority - together with opening up the north - south sudan - need to tarmac road to juba from loki - and also we need to build infrastructure btw Kenya and somalia - for more trade. The current gov has irrational fear of somalis.

The highway to Mandera and Liboi - will open a new trading route - like the Moyale one has done.

Getting the road from Loki to Juba tarmacked should be top priority for kenya and south sudan - and then doing the lapset road corridor - plus industrial city in Lamu - will open a new economic corridor and solve the insecurity challenges in the north

Haven't seen this discussed here but surely this is a big move. I'd say all the other six countries are dancing and celebrating because if the union integrates and holds in the future, DRC will have a chance to stabilize and the rest will have much to gain from its endless resources and giant population. I've read other countries have been seeking to join but have been snubbed, like Sudan and Somalia. With Sudan, I understand it might be its issues with South Sudan, but why we snubbing Somalia? Well, I suppose it's the instability. But we let South Sudan in and now DRC, so maybe the unspoken reason is good old ukabila? Maybe East Africans are weary of Horn peoples? I don't know. But it's interesting how fast S. Sudan some years ago and now DRC have been ushered in. Would we snub Ethiopia if it applied? I don't think so, given how well it's been doing (recent events notwithstanding) but we'll see.

[Dear Mami]

DRC is great move. Now bring Ethiopia on board - and we will have really big market. Somalia is a mess but if they apply why not.

They already applied a long time ago, along with Sudan. I think Sudan was vetoed by S. Sudan and Uganda, but I don't know why they've ignored Somalia. Maybe they're waiting for them to stabilize first. It's been years now since they applied. EAC haven't said a flat-out No, but hasn't progressed the discussion further. In conrast, TZ invited DRC to apply (Maghufuli) and they did in 2019. Just two years later, it's virtually complete now, only waiting for final touches.

Ethiopia has never applied but I've been reading countries have started eyeing EAC/EAF far more keenly now, and more might apply. So maybe Ethiopia will, plus a few more further South, like Mozambique which already speaks Swahili (but I don't know, just guessing they will after DRC, but I haven't studied their geopolitics so I don't know if this is even something they'd be interested in.)

I just hope the Horn is brought in, plus Mozambique, after DRC, and that harmonization and integration really kicks off. An entity like this could catapult development like dynamite. But even without the Horn, EAF would still achieve first world status if politicians don't ruin it with our usual baafrika nonsense.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I would hold off on new applications until the existing arrangement exhibits some coherence as a real viable unit.  There are still major issues to iron out even between the current members. That way East Africa can require specific metrics that new applicants have to meet in order to join.

[Dear Mami]

I would hold off on new applications until the existing arrangement exhibits some coherence as a real viable unit.  There are still major issues to iron out even between the current members. That way East Africa can require specific metrics that new applicants have to meet in order to join.

Yeah, that's important and I think is why Somalia wasn't approved to join. But my thinking is sometimes massive positive prospects (perceived benefits) might help with the ironing-out-of-the-kinks because it'll make nations more willing to make the sacrifices (of sovereignty) that integration requires. When the union is small and benefits not as big, squabbling and tantrums are more likely, like with EAC I in the seventies (IMO).

Rwanda (and I think Burundi, though I'm not sure) already started to adopt the Common Law system used in the original EAC 3 countries who are all ex-British-colonies, despite never being colonized by the Brits themselves. They're dumping the Civil law system they inherited from the Belgians, just to be more like their EAC counterparts in terms of legal systems. So it's already happening, albeit slowly. That's why I doubt Ethiopia will apply. I don't see them willingly making such changes. But countries like DRC and Somalia could and would. Once Museveni and Kagame are gone, I'm hoping they'll be more efforts to imitate Kenya. Which is why I hope the BBI goes through, whatever the presidency looks like, in future. It's quite possible we'll see such devolution being slowly replicated in the belt that the EAC/EAF will form once DRC is in. But yeah, we need to iron out lots of kinks. None of it is easy, unfortunately. But a step in the right direction.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I would hold off on new applications until the existing arrangement exhibits some coherence as a real viable unit.  There are still major issues to iron out even between the current members. That way East Africa can require specific metrics that new applicants have to meet in order to join.

Yeah, that's important and I think is why Somalia wasn't approved to join. But my thinking is sometimes massive positive prospects (perceived benefits) might help with the ironing-out-of-the-kinks because it'll make nations more willing to make the sacrifices (of sovereignty) that integration requires. When the union is small and benefits not as big, squabbling and tantrums are more likely, like with EAC I in the seventies (IMO).

Rwanda (and I think Burundi, though I'm not sure) already started to adopt the Common Law system used in the original EAC 3 countries who are all ex-British-colonies, despite never being colonized by the Brits themselves. They're dumping the Civil law system they inherited from the Belgians, just to be more like their EAC counterparts in terms of legal systems. So it's already happening, albeit slowly. That's why I doubt Ethiopia will apply. I don't see them willingly making such changes. But countries like DRC and Somalia could and would. Once Museveni and Kagame are gone, I'm hoping they'll be more efforts to imitate Kenya. Which is why I hope the BBI goes through, whatever the presidency looks like, in future. It's quite possible we'll see such devolution being slowly replicated in the belt that the EAC/EAF will form once DRC is in. But yeah, we need to iron out lots of kinks. None of it is easy, unfortunately. But a step in the right direction.

I think Somalia is just seen as too unpredictable(rightly so IMO).  I would also view South Sudan the same way; still Somali society is famously  and dramatically unpredictable.  In fact all countries in this arrangement are generally unpredictable; but culturally Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania, even DRC are closer to each other than to Somalia or Ethiopia.

That aside, basics like a common market for goods and labor still seem like a pipe dream after all these years.  If I am not wrong a company still has to go through some hoops to do business in a neighboring country in matters like taxation, hiring an foreign East African etc.  Lots of talk, workshops and meetings but little reflecting those aspirations the ground.

[Dear Mami]

It's happening officially, today! Yay! 

[RV Pundit]

I wish we can convince Ethiopia to join EAC - then we will not need AFCAT - that will be huge 350M market - bigger than US.

[Kadudu]

Of course it would be good for Ethiopia to join the EAC, but we really have to define what EAC membership means. There is still a lot to clear especially inter state trade and exchange of manpower.
Also do not compare the EAC with the US. Two different worlds. The buing power of the US is nearly a hundred fold to that of the EAC with Ethiopia included.

I wish we can convince Ethiopia to join EAC - then we will not need AFCAT - that will be huge 350M market - bigger than US.

[RV Pundit]

Way I see - we should have minimum standards - and then bilateral agreeements - so we deal with Lazy TZ - while moving forward with progressive Rwanda.

Basic minimum is free trade btw countries.

Immigration/Labour/land such can take time. Currency and political federation - we dont need it

Of course it would be good for Ethiopia to join the EAC, but we really have to define what EAC membership means. There is still a lot to clear especially inter state trade and exchange of manpower.
Also do not compare the EAC with the US. Two different worlds. The buing power of the US is nearly a hundred fold to that of the EAC with Ethiopia included.

I wish we can convince Ethiopia to join EAC - then we will not need AFCAT - that will be huge 350M market - bigger than US.

[sema]

that will be huge 350M market - bigger than US.

Population size alone is not the issue. It's 350 million very poor people so it won't be a bigger "market" than the US.  The per capita incomes and disposable incomes need to go up.

[RV Pundit]

that will be huge 350M market - bigger than US.

Population size alone is not the issue. It's 350 million very poor people so it won't be a bigger "market" than the US.  The per capita incomes and disposable incomes need to go up.

of course..but it's still a big deal