1) Opinion polls
2) Social media
3) Kalonzo mess
I have put Ruto at 35 percent of Machakos, 30 percent of Makueni and 20 percent of Kitui.
Opinion polls have him at 40s - beating Raila and Kalonzo.
Those were before Kalonzo made his boneheaded move to Azimio.
Let's wait and see if opinion polls will change.
Politics is dynamics. That by-election had Kalonzo, MaDVD and Weta really defending their turf. Then last time Ruto made a mess by attacking Kalonzo for Yatta farm. Now he has learnt to stay away from attacking Kalonzo or Ngilu.
.. after Machakos senator dog-beating last by Muthama wife Kavindu under Wiper. I see little traction for Ruto in Kamba despite Pundit's false hope. Yaani even those side-lined or shortchanged by Wiper just cross to Jubilee or Muungano - any Azimio party.
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-03-25-rutos-ally-in-machakos-ditches-uda-for-railas-azimio/