Turkana,Nanok the only one left

[Pajero]

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Pundito what's happening in Turkana,4 mps,senator and woman rep now in Azimio,Nanok the only one left standing with hustler,Anyway Munyes looks set to be next governor.

[RV Pundit]

Why are they not joining ODM.
Nanok ODM crew are running UDA.
Those Jubilee guys who were with Ruto dont feel safe.
Nanok endorsed his guy as UDA candidate to face Munyes - and will likely have his lineup.
This is normal politics.
You get some. You lose some.
Ruto has given Nanok the leeway to run Turkana.

Nanok has proven himself in two elections beating Munyes senselessly.
And Ruto want that oil.

And for numbers - check MOAS - Turkana yote - we have about 220K votes - with about 160K expected votes - Ruto will beat Raila slightly.

End of day - ODM is scoring zero in Turkana - as those quiting UDA are joining Munyes in JUBILEE.

This why come august ODM will be a very very small party with 20 mps - considering even in Luo Nyanza they have started direct tickets - everyone including Raila own sister are running to Azimio parties.

Raila will retire like Moi - in great shame.

Pundito what's happening in Turkana,4 mps,senator and woman rep now in Azimio,Nanok the only one left standing with hustler,Anyway Munyes looks set to be next governor.

[Pajero]

As,usual,you have not answered my question,just went round and round and summarized with Ruto winning.You are very predictable my friend..So,was Nanok winning because he was popular or because of ODM or a combination of both.

[RV Pundit]

Before ODM there was KANU and MOi.
Turkana, Coast,Maasai, NEP and others were in KANU coalition.
Raila joined the KANU coalition - which was small tribe coalition against the BIG TRIBES.
When Moi went 360 - and picked GEMA Uhuru - the small tribes coalition ended.
Some went to Raila as LDP- part of rebellion like Ntimama tagging along Saitoti - in 2002.
Some went to Raila - with Kalenjin in 2005 - to form ODM.
When Kalenjin left ODM - some decided to remain - about half went back with Kalenjin to URP.
From URP to Jubilee.

That is the historical context.

Now let talk 2022.
Ruto took ODM chairman - NANOK - huge political coup - and made him UDA chair and campaign manager.
Nanok obviously had his ODM crew that was in competition with Jubilee/Munyes/Ekwe Ethuro.

What is happening now.

Nanok has his lineup.
Those who do not see eye to eye with him have decided to join Munyes in Jubilee.

These are formerly Ruto allies but when they approach Ruto - Ruto tells them talk to Nanok.

For Ruto Nanok is important mostly because he has great plans for Turkana OIL

Ruto will deploy commonsensical approach and Turkana oil will flow - and generate billions.

As,usual,you have not answered my question,just went round and round and summarized with Ruto winning.You are very predictable my friend..So,was Nanok winning because he was popular or because of ODM or a combination of both.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

UDA will sweep Turkana. Folks reposition because UDA has fronted their fresh people on the ground. Jubilee will go down with many good politicians who failed to gauge the ground. The ground, except 40 mile radius of yala swamp, and few pockets here and there is with Samoei Ruto. As always, I will be here on election night moving threats up, bringing pain, and telling folks " I told you so"

[Nefertiti]

I agree ODM might do badly in MPs... but wins Azimio PORK. That is a good gamble for Raila approaching 80.

Munyes and those MPs will deliver votes to Raila.

[RV Pundit]

Big assumption
What we have seen - reality
Nobody is campaigning for Raila
They campaign for themselves.
If someone want Raila - they go to ODM.
If someone in Turkana doesnt want to pass Chungwa house iko shida.
ODM has free tickets outside it stronghold.

Strategy wise Raila is trying to pull a Kibaki of 2007

I agree ODM might do badly in MPs... but wins Azimio PORK. That is a good gamble for Raila approaching 80.

Munyes and those MPs will deliver votes to Raila.

[Nowayhaha]

Ribena, you are halfway there, Next you will say Raila will do badly compared to 2017 and 2013. Congrats One step at a time

I agree ODM might do badly in MPs... but wins Azimio PORK. That is a good gamble for Raila approaching 80.

Munyes and those MPs will deliver votes to Raila.

[Nefertiti]

Your personal beef with Raila is legendary - at least Pundit pretends to be dispassionate.

Raila is old - going 80 - so it would be silly to insist everyone join ODM now. Azimio has 20 parties at ODM expense - but big Raila advantage.

Raila cannot easily betray Azimio partners.. that makes him more trustworthy. Under KK expect UDA to get 90% of MPs that make Ruto so powerful - can easily dismiss tiny ANC & Ford-K.

Ribena, you are halfway there, Next you will say Raila will do badly compared to 2017 and 2013. Congrats One step at a time

[RV Pundit]

It's either kalonzo or Gideon as uhuru makes the choice