Raila is number 2 among Kenya's top politicians. He could have easily cruised to victory had the number 1 politician (Ruto) not thrown his hat in the ring. Now that Ruto will be reigning top politician in the next 10 years and possibly another 10 if folks like Ndindi or Kimani consolidate the mountain as Dpork, Raila will not have a chance in the coming 20 years. In 2042, pushing close to a hundred, he may have an opportunity, and yes, better luck than 1997, 2007, 2013, 2017, and 2022. Remember, his best chance was in 2007 when DP almost made him president. I think by 2042, kabila mbili will have worn people out and Raila stands a chance then.
In 2022, DP is gunning for the presidency and his GEMA deputy for the next 20 years, and the way things look, there is no room for anyone to penetrate. As long as RVGEMA is united, it is tough for other people to run a meaningful presidential campaign because they start off at 43-45% on day one. If GEMA supports DP to a tune of 70% and beyond, RV voters will reward GEMA fully at the end of DP's 10-year tenure. So that is 20 years of a dry spell for bwana kitendawili! If the mountain fails to support DP in convincing numbers, Raila may still have a chance in 2032. All indications, though, show they will pull a lever for Rutto in 2022, which will automatically renew in 2027 because Ruto is a performer. After DP's 10 years of economic performance, Ruto's Deputy, whether (Gachagua, Ndindi, or Kimani), will be elected and reelected easily, thus locking the 20 years under RVGEMA rule! 2042 is the only election I see bwana kitendawili haveing 50/50 chance!