Author Topic: Uhuru's gameplan  (Read 1160 times)

Offline Sivel

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Uhuru's gameplan
« on: February 26, 2022, 12:26:56 PM »
The latest events in Azimio have me convinced that Uhuru has probably made peace with the fact that Ruto's lead is unassailable (he receives NIS briefs after all).

It seems to me that his game plan is no longer to install Raila as a puppet, both because of the difficulty of rigging and potential for civil unrest, but also because he cannot trust him once in power as puppets tend to develop minds of their own (Tshisekedi with Kabila, Moi with Njonjo, etc etc)

Looking at his latest moves, I think he's out to control the Azimio Coalition. His Jubilee has haemorrhaged members, but he's cleverly cobbling up small parties and has successfully roped ODM (and now potentially Wiper) into Azimio.

Now, our 2010 Constitution does not officially recognise a leader of Opposition, but such a person remains powerful because of the MPs and committees he controls in the Legislature. That's how Raila has remained politically relevant.

My thinking is this. Uhuru will cobble up Azimio and be the leader of the coalition. Odinga will be the Presidential candidate. Uhuru won't care if he wins or loses. ODM and the rest will be in Azimio, which under the new rules is a coalition political party. Once Raila loses, Azimio Coalition will be under Uhuru as party leader, and he'll be in control of the activities of the coalition, including any potential handshakes with the government. ODM and Raila will be swallowed, and based on the coalition agreement, he'll no longer be in control of his own party. Using Azimio Party, Uhuru can negotiate political immunity for himself and his family.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Uhuru's gameplan
« Reply #1 on: February 26, 2022, 12:45:05 PM »
I agree with general tenor of your argument.
Uhuru+Gideon are looking for political leverage.
They have so much wealth they can never be comfortable a single day in opposition.
They definitely underestimated Ruto.
Initially Baba was suppose to be a scarecrow but things went south.
They dont trust Baba. If the poor man in Ichwari with nothing doesnt trust Baba - trust me - Kenyattas cant.
Now what kind of political leaverage can they get?
Do they negotiate now?
Are they working in secret pact with Ruto?
Do they negotiate from an even weaken position post election?
The latest events in Azimio have me convinced that Uhuru has probably made peace with the fact that Ruto's lead is unassailable (he receives NIS briefs after all).

It seems to me that his game plan is no longer to install Raila as a puppet, both because of the difficulty of rigging and potential for civil unrest, but also because he cannot trust him once in power as puppets tend to develop minds of their own (Tshisekedi with Kabila, Moi with Njonjo, etc etc)

Looking at his latest moves, I think he's out to control the Azimio Coalition. His Jubilee has haemorrhaged members, but he's cleverly cobbling up small parties and has successfully roped ODM (and now potentially Wiper) into Azimio.

Now, our 2010 Constitution does not officially recognise a leader of Opposition, but such a person remains powerful because of the MPs and committees he controls in the Legislature. That's how Raila has remained politically relevant.

My thinking is this. Uhuru will cobble up Azimio and be the leader of the coalition. Odinga will be the Presidential candidate. Uhuru won't care if he wins or loses. ODM and the rest will be in Azimio, which under the new rules is a coalition political party. Once Raila loses, Azimio Coalition will be under Uhuru as party leader, and he'll be in control of the activities of the coalition, including any potential handshakes with the government. ODM and Raila will be swallowed, and based on the coalition agreement, he'll no longer be in control of his own party. Using Azimio Party, Uhuru can negotiate political immunity for himself and his family.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Uhuru's gameplan
« Reply #2 on: February 26, 2022, 01:02:00 PM »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Uhuru's gameplan
« Reply #3 on: February 26, 2022, 01:39:58 PM »
Uhuru presiding his NDC - with many parties - while Raila cuts a lonely figure with ODM.

They are saying Raila is no longer the automatic candidate - Kalonzo and Raila will have to agree?

Project Weaken Raila could still be on - Uhuru NDCS - has OKA+Plus all the small parties.


Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Uhuru's gameplan
« Reply #4 on: February 26, 2022, 01:50:46 PM »
Okay Raila rushed to KICC - seem Uhuru is now the chief

Offline patel

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Re: Uhuru's gameplan
« Reply #5 on: February 26, 2022, 06:27:52 PM »
Uhuru main goal is to make Gedion president but with Ruto running away with the presidency the only way for them to retain power is by supporting Raila. Make him a 1 term president then inherit his political base.