35 EU countries want sanction on Abbiy

[RV Pundit]

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Will China and Russia veto a UNSC resolution?

Russia and China might not care about Baby Abiy enough

35 states, led by EU, have called for an urgent UNSC session on 17 Dec to discuss situation in Ethiopia.

African bloc at a loss on how to proceed. AU argues a special session unnecessary since Obasanjo is making progress.

Reality Obasanjo mission dead. He cannot get meetings.

— Rashid Abdi (@RAbdiAnalyst) December 16, 2021

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Will China and Russia veto a UNSC resolution?

Russia and China might not care about Baby Abiy enough

35 states, led by EU, have called for an urgent UNSC session on 17 Dec to discuss situation in Ethiopia.

African bloc at a loss on how to proceed. AU argues a special session unnecessary since Obasanjo is making progress.

Reality Obasanjo mission dead. He cannot get meetings.

— Rashid Abdi (@RAbdiAnalyst) December 16, 2021

I am not sure what the obsession is with the West and Abiy(or Ethiopia for that matter).  I am generally familiar with the Tigray question in Ethiopia, but the geopolitics of this escape me.  Also Rashid Abdiy, like a whole bunch of Somalis are incorrigible irredentists.  So their hot takes are best not taken seriously beyond that.  They seem to derive a peculiar joy in seeing other countries around Somalia fail.

[RV Pundit]

West liked Abiy - gave him a Nobel - until he started this misguided war. That was to take a week .
Now how can west look aside when Abiy is commiting genocide against Tigray people - committing war crimes - has arrested  UN officials - has blockaded food aid - and famine is threatening to kill 2.5m. There is no food, no medicine, nothing for almost a year in entire Tigray region - 6 million people.

I speak to Ethiopian..my boss is an Ethiopian...they dont care about fact that 2.5M Tigrays are danger of starvation. All they care about is that Adis and Ethiopia is peaceful contrary to west propaganda.

This is not acceptable to anybody unless you're consumed by Tigrayan hatred.

Most Somalis back Abiy. They are still bitter for atrocities that Tigray visited on Ogaden and also on Somalis in alshabaab war - and many old wars - Tigray ethiopia forces simply drove tanks and overrun somalis - killing and shooting.

Pretty much all the horn tribes hate Tigrayan- somalis, oromos, amharas, eritreas, afar - because Tigray visited terror on them on their 30yrs in power.

But they left power and nobody has a right to commit genocide against a minority even if they did horrible stuff. It's like Hutus starting to kill Tutsi..it's not acceptable.

As for Rashid - I think you're wrong.Rashid is analyst - Fellow Rift Valley Institute

I am not sure what the obsession is with the West and Abiy(or Ethiopia for that matter).  I am generally familiar with the Tigray question in Ethiopia, but the geopolitics of this escape me.  Also Rashid Abdiy, like a whole bunch of Somalis are incorrigible irredentists.  So their hot takes are best not taken seriously beyond that.  They seem to derive a peculiar joy in seeing other countries around Somalia fail.

[Kadudu]

NYT writes:

[Kadudu]

Seems like Abiy had other plans up his sleeve from day one. Actually had he been a bit clever he should have first waited to cement his power, then go for the Tigrayans. Abiy now has no homebase power and is left to the mercy of Amharas.

NYT writes:

[RV Pundit]

100 million ethiopians will simply flood EU and other countries...so stopping Abiy or Ethipioa slidding to long drawn civil war is important.

There has to be a winner and soon.

[Georgesoros]

Unstable Ethiopia means Kenya and the whole region will also be unstable. All the refugees flooding Kenya, Uganda Europe etc.

[Kadudu]

Only thousands can make it to Europe. The millions will be in the E. African region. This war has to be ended ASAP. It is meaningless and makes no sense at all.

Remember also Ethiopia owes China a lot of money. Ethiopia has the second largest debt to China in Africa. Only Angola owes China more money. Also many Chinese companies now have manufacturing facilities in Ethiopia.

100 million ethiopians will simply flood EU and other countries...so stopping Abiy or Ethipioa slidding to long drawn civil war is important.

There has to be a winner and soon.

[RV Pundit]

They need to negotiate for United States of Ethiopia - with Tigrays and 8 regions - as independent as Zanzibar and Tanzania.
I dont see another solution. These people dont like each other. Each one has their flag.
South Africa will see a lot of influx.
And Kenya definitely.
It may be a little tough to make to Europe and the US.

Only solution - negotiate for united republic of ethiopia - there is secession clause already - what is needed is referendum.

But they are tenacious and will make their way their.

Only thousands can make it to Europe. The millions will be in the E. African region. This war has to be ended ASAP. It is meaningless and makes no sense at all.

Remember also Ethiopia owes China a lot of money. Ethiopia has the second largest debt to China in Africa. Only Angola owes China more money. Also many Chinese companies now have manufacturing facilities in Ethiopia.

100 million ethiopians will simply flood EU and other countries...so stopping Abiy or Ethipioa slidding to long drawn civil war is important.

There has to be a winner and soon.

[Gikomba_Hawker]

I hope that whatever solution is agreed upon, there is still strong enough power in Addis Ababa to prevent secession. In other words, the various ethnic groups have adequate rights but not the ability to break away from Ethiopia.

They need to negotiate for United States of Ethiopia - with Tigrays and 8 regions - as independent as Zanzibar and Tanzania.
I dont see another solution. These people dont like each other. Each one has their flag.
South Africa will see a lot of influx.
And Kenya definitely.
It may be a little tough to make to Europe and the US.

Only solution - negotiate for united republic of ethiopia - there is secession clause already - what is needed is referendum.

But they are tenacious and will make their way their.

Only thousands can make it to Europe. The millions will be in the E. African region. This war has to be ended ASAP. It is meaningless and makes no sense at all.

Remember also Ethiopia owes China a lot of money. Ethiopia has the second largest debt to China in Africa. Only Angola owes China more money. Also many Chinese companies now have manufacturing facilities in Ethiopia.

100 million ethiopians will simply flood EU and other countries...so stopping Abiy or Ethipioa slidding to long drawn civil war is important.

There has to be a winner and soon.

[RV Pundit]

Of what use is a united country if it leads to genocide and genocidal thoughts. African with its 2000 tribes and 54 countries will see a lot of secession. There is a reason why we had those 2,000 nations or tribes previously.

Only way forward is for more and more autonomy - and we just keep unity for sports/flags/ - and become friendly neigberhours - for trade and commerce.

I hope that whatever solution is agreed upon, there is still strong enough power in Addis Ababa to prevent secession. In other words, the various ethnic groups have adequate rights but not the ability to break away from Ethiopia.

[Gikomba_Hawker]

I strongly disagree. Succession cannot be used as a solution whenever there's a problem. I can think of tribes (in other African countries), after being in power for a long time, lose it and cannot deal with the new reality. I can then see the leaders of these tribes using succession as a way out, instead of accepting that they are no longer in power and working things out in the democratic process.

Ethiopia, as it is right now, is worth saving. I have not seen anything that would warrant succession. This is a beautiful country with an amazing history. Its culture is unique. Its food really delicious. Its runners are superb. And on top of all this, it's a great ally of Kenya.

No, I'm for doing all we can to save Ethiopia. Nothing at the moment warrants its breakup.

Of what use is a united country if it leads to genocide and genocidal thoughts. African with its 2000 tribes and 54 countries will see a lot of secession. There is a reason why we had those 2,000 nations or tribes previously.

Only way forward is for more and more autonomy - and we just keep unity for sports/flags/ - and become friendly neigberhours - for trade and commerce.

I hope that whatever solution is agreed upon, there is still strong enough power in Addis Ababa to prevent secession. In other words, the various ethnic groups have adequate rights but not the ability to break away from Ethiopia.