Moi-Kenyatta will negotiate on behalf of their families - for their own self. Gideon doesnt speak even for any tugen. He speak for Moi family and it's huge interest.
Kenyatta has mismanaged his succession, and has seen his leverage in mt kenya gone. For now it appears he is even scrambling Somalis and other forces...to try to have some leverage.
The remaining leverage is gov machinery - but he is increasingly lameduck - and come February nearly half the gov will resign - and join politics. He only has two months - of Jan and Dec - before we see 10th mass defection - as gov officials head to politics- and once in politics - the ground is the boss - Not Uhuru.
So looking at Uhuru/Moi - his leverage is Raila and OKA - he is threatening to support them so Ruto can negotiate. But Ruto is hard nosed negotiator - and will not give any inch unless he must. He will delay any deal making until April-May. He has a lot of maneuvering room - with national support - with strong base that just need a little work on rigging proofing margins.
Therefore what Uhuru/Moi can hope is to get is fake deal - Ruto will throw it down the window on day one. He will only assure them zero harrassment - but their wealth is free for grabs. Gov tabs will close immediately and their companies will start to go bankrupt. Their regulatory capture is months from going away.
If they back Raila - Kenyatta/Mois - will literally pee on themselves the first day. Raila will be even be more vengeful. If Raila was to win convincingly using some miracles...Ruto will back him..and Raila will crush the Kenyattas and Mois...end of day they will have little political leverage post 2022 without political support.
Bottomline - this is 2002 - there is going to be a real transition - either with Raila or Ruto - a new elite will emerge - and as neccessity they will crush the old Kenyatta-Kibaki-Moi elite.Kenyattas and Mois are very scared now.
Whether genuine or not, it looks like Uhuru is months away from taking a neutral stand if he needs to retire peacefully. There is no need for a president to gamble by endorsing a candidate in an election where it can go either way. I agree, Gideon; to safe face may negotiate to Keep Moi's name relevant in RV. Kenyatta negotiation is more likely dependent on GEMA shift to jaCon; if GEMA largely stays with DP, Kenyatta will not negotiate even 1/8 because his leverage is nonexistent. DP will have earned those votes the hard way, but if there are any negotiations, it will go to the new mini kingpins in akina Ichungwas, Nyoros, Gachaguas, Waigurus, etc. Uhuru's sway is almost kaput, but if things go jaCon's way, Uhuru will demand more than half.
Topic: If this is Genuine, it looks like Uhuru has left BUBU and OKA men kwa mataa (Read 1005 times)