Looking at kenya map.
ODM will drop from 62mps now to about 40mps. This is just based on the hammorrage that it's been on every election. Outside Luo Nyanza - there other ODM stronghold was coast - Coast has gone to Kingi to sijui Pamoja - and Ruto - with few left in ODM. The rest of country ODM had like 1 Gusii Mp, 5 Luhya Mps and etc. I dont see how their fortunes will improve in such areas - it will be more hemorrhaging. The party will end with 30 Luo Mps - about 10 Luos Mps elected in other parties due to ODM nomination mess - and then 1 or 2 mps here and there. Total ODM Mps 40.
UDA will score about 170-200mps. Kalenjin alone will be about 60 Mps. UDA will sweep most of MATUSA Mps seats. UDA will sweep most of pastoralist north. UDA will definitely score about 70 percent Mt kenya. UDA will also score some votes in NASA strongholds.
As for BBI versus Hustler Nation
It's rather obvious that Raila is busy copy pasting Ruto and talking about the elephant in the house - JOBLESS MILLION YOUTHS.
Thankfully Ruto has yet to reveal his manifesto - he would have copied it.
True that they will get enough here and there all over the country especially MCA's but the MP's and Governors will mainly be from Kalenjin Rift Valley. BBI was the best thing to happen to RAO. It made him appear generous and ready to share power and give the Kikuyus MORE power. Then Ruto not thinking opposed and killed it. Now kikuyus love RAO for having fought for them but at the same time he does not have to share power if he became the 5th. Historians will label it a stroke of political genius if RAO. Killing BBI was a pyrrhic victory for Ruto. The dividends for Kikuyus in RAO presidency are huge. Luos will have gotten what they always wanted and the Kikuyus will have at last shedded away the albatross around their neck that "they never vote for another tribe" and also pay back the old political debts to the luos for Kenyattaa and Kibaki presidency. Its win win for a lot of people.
We shall see 
- UDA will have aspirants all over kenya - more than any other party. I expect it to field in almost all constituencies and wards.
Hustler nation messaging is a genius move.
Raila is slowly converting and promise the poor 6K per month.
Only Kalenjin Rift Valley will experience the UDA wave. I think you are right on Murconmen.
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