Kenya gov is juggling debt - debt refinancing - which not okay - we need to leverage - and we can get money by selling likes of Safaricom, KCB and few others for 10B dollars - this can be good seed money for infrastructure deficit fund - and then we can borrow another 90B in say 5yrs - as long as we get long maturity century bond with low interest - with 100B dollars - we can close our basic infrastructure deficit - ensure all classified roads - are paved (we are at 15-20 percent) - everyone in kenya has piped water ( we are at 40-50 percent) - everyone in kenya is connected to electricity (we are 75-80) - once we nail those basic - plus ensuring everyone is getting right free basic education (almost okay - except TIVET still far behind) and health (50 percent - operational of NHIF complusory cover will fix this in 1-2yrs)- we can go into complicated stuff like manufacturing.
Nailing basic infrastructure plus social investment in education and health - that is the foundation.
Without it - we are going nowhere - now or in the future.
Nailing these basic infrastructure - where every kenya wakes up to electricity, paved road at least a kilometre from their homes, piped water, telcom (has solved itself) and related fintech/banking - and they are healthy with basic health insurance cover - and their kids future is secured with good education - will immediately improve the quality of life - for everyone.
Then we can think about growing business and enterprises.
Of course in places in Mt Kenya - and some urban areas of kenya - most of basic infrastructure has been nailed - what is pending for them is dealing with pockets of poverty - otherwise they should move to next stage - where gov really invest in growing SMES and enterprises.
But for places like Siaya or Bomet or Narok - there is still huge infrastracture deficit. Place like Turkana and Mandera - are still literally in stone age. Kenya policy wonks have to identify such areas - and deal with basic first - otherwise what business really will thrive in Mandera...where people spend their days fetching water kilometers away.
Nationally there is still big problem - where out of 600K kids who graduate high school - only about 300K go to universities, tivet, colleges and name it - but 50 percent just go back to villages - without any vocational training.
Kenya is surviving on speculative capital inflows and juggling debt as it negotiates an IMF bailout.
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