What does it take to win against the deep state and system?
1) Landslide victory - a victory impossible to rig. Narc won by a huge landslide against KANU. Small margin costed Raila in 2007 - his margin slim victory was riggable - and Kibaki rigged brazenly. 1992 and 1997 Moi definitely rigged - by how much I don't know. 1992 there was a lot of ballot stuffing by NIS - who hijacked pickups on the way to counting centers. 1997 election was extended for a day - and in my place kipkalyia Kones was going round asking people to go and vote again until all ECK material were over. When kibaki went to court - same Kones instigated clashes in Molo - as warning to Kibaki. Kones was a true hater- I am not sure why -he definitely was an ICC material - not WSR.
https://www.nytimes.com/1997/12/31/world/all-sides-in-kenya-cry-fraud-in-election.html2) Incumbent is not running - where is a transition like 2002. Either way, there is a new gov coming in. The deep state and system natural splits with everyone hunting for a new master.