Obado will flip Migori to Ruto

[RV Pundit]

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If he works with Kuria and renegade Luos : Raila could be in trouble. Anyway Ruto will get 20 percent - from 15 percent of 2017. I doubt Obado will deliver more than 5-10 percent of Migori Luos to Ruto.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/counties/nyanza/2021-08-16-obado-hints-at-working-with-dp-ruto-in-2022/

[Omollo]

Hapo umenoa. I've heard people saying the same about Raila and Central and "renegade" Kikuyus. The seats ODM got in Meru as much as we used them to maximum propaganda were just protest votes on local issues including rigging of primaries.

Ruto can try to get The Kuria but that will only help them negotiate a deal for the senate seat. Obado is going to jail whether Uhuru, Raila, Ruto or Kalonzo is president. He could get away with wizi but murder where he has already been connected to the murderers is a stretch to see him out even on appeal. The publicity means corrupt prosecutors who lose evidence will be wary. But the REAL problem for Obado is kissing Ruto's ass. This is the time he'd be kissing Kenyatta's asshole. I used to think he's smart. He kissed Raila's ass took a mountain of cash to the wife ... the wife ordered Raila to stop the impeachment! And he saluted and did! See that?

Today Obado is lost.

I really wondered how he could be so careless when laundering cash. I'm sure he's since learned. One thing for the corrupt: keep your mother out of your thievery! I'm sure you can find a church to form a company to then become a supplier. They can take out the money in cash hand a distant guy in Turkana who can then wire it to your malaya daughter in Australia

[RV Pundit]

The murder trial is going nowhere; very hard to prove such crimes to Beyond Reasonable Doubt; corruption yes that has clearly linkage and the standard of proof is lower;

As for politics - there is really nothing for him in ODM - he would just be another cog in Raila wheel.

If he takes a risk - and Raila fails in 2022 - he could emerge as South Nyanza Kingpin - and that seems his long-term gameplan.

He joins Raila and nobody cares about him. Good politicians think long term....and Obado is playing for long term...he may not influence much now..but if Raila fails..he wins.

What works for him - He can match Raila thuggery - Raila intimidates Luo leaders to back him - it little North Korea of kenya politics - but Obado has built his alternative gangs who can cause as much havoc as Raila goons.

That is why he can do whatever he wants...which many Luo leaders cannot. The only way for Luo leader to face Raila is to invest in goons...otherwise, you will be intimidated...and beaten like Miguna Miguna.

Hapo umenoa. I've heard people saying the same about Raila and Central and "renegade" Kikuyus. The seats ODM got in Meru as much as we used them to maximum propaganda were just protest votes on local issues including rigging of primaries.

Ruto can try to get The Kuria but that will only help them negotiate a deal for the senate seat. Obado is going to jail whether Uhuru, Raila, Ruto or Kalonzo is president. He could get away with wizi but murder where he has already been connected to the murderers is a stretch to see him out even on appeal. The publicity means corrupt prosecutors who lose evidence will be wary. But the REAL problem for Obado is kissing Ruto's ass. This is the time he'd be kissing Kenyatta's asshole. I used to think he's smart. He kissed Raila's ass took a mountain of cash to the wife ... the wife ordered Raila to stop the impeachment! And he saluted and did! See that?

Today Obado is lost.

I really wondered how he could be so careless when laundering cash. I'm sure he's since learned. One thing for the corrupt: keep your mother out of your thievery! I'm sure you can find a church to form a company to then become a supplier. They can take out the money in cash hand a distant guy in Turkana who can then wire it to your malaya daughter in Australia

[Nefertiti]

I am glad Pundit admits Obado is playing for longterm. Raila will be in diapers sooner or later. But 2022 Obado will be lucky to deliver 1% Luo to Ruto. At least Gideon might deliver 5% Kalenjin to Raila.

Obado plan is daring. I doubt Ruto is counting on him.

[RV Pundit]

Many Luos are silent admirers of Ruto. 5 percent minimum. This is not Kenyatta they hated. Luos know what Ruto did for Raila and ODM. Obado can deliver 5-10 percent because he can go toe to toe with ODM thugs.

I am glad Pundit admits Obado is playing for longterm. Raila will be in diapers sooner or later. But 2022 Obado will be lucky to deliver 1% Luo to Ruto. At least Gideon might deliver 5% Kalenjin to Raila.

Obado plan is daring. I doubt Ruto is counting on him.

[Nefertiti]

Obado PDP would gain traction if he pretends to back Raila like 2013 - while building his network. If he is aiming 5% - which serious local MP or MCA or whatever candidates would waste their time and cash on PDP?

Obado is just daredevil - realistically I see nothing - maybe longterm yes or incase old Raila drop dead. Going head-to-head in Raila vs Ruto 

1% max

Many Luos are silent admirers of Ruto. 5 percent minimum. This is not Kenyatta they hated. Luos know what Ruto did for Raila and ODM. Obado can deliver 5-10 percent because he can go toe to toe with ODM thugs.

I am glad Pundit admits Obado is playing for longterm. Raila will be in diapers sooner or later. But 2022 Obado will be lucky to deliver 1% Luo to Ruto. At least Gideon might deliver 5% Kalenjin to Raila.

Obado plan is daring. I doubt Ruto is counting on him.

[RV Pundit]

Power is not given. It is taken. There are people who have been waiting for Raila to give them power - Orengo is about 75 years now. POWER Is taken.

Obado has taken ODM and won. And not a small seat but a governor seat. Obado is also monied. Obado also has thugs.

Obado will definitely deliver 5-10 percent for Ruto in MIGORI ONLY and will also win MP seat. South Nyanza do not really see Raila benefit. Obado is that voice...the last development South Nyanza saw was Kalam Madoung era under Moi - when Oyugi was building stuff - and then Obado era.

Luo will give Ruto slightly  more than they did Uhuru - but it balance out - Raila will also get his 2 percent in Kalenjin

So dont sweat it (eti Max 1 % - nearly bursting a vein) - 100 percent is impossible - there are people like Njamba or my brother who just vote opposite of everyone.

Typically it's 2 percent - but it balance out.

Obado PDP would gain traction if he pretends to back Raila like 2013 - while building his network. If he is aiming 5% - which serious local MP or MCA or whatever candidates would waste their time and cash on PDP?

Obado is just daredevil - realistically I see nothing - maybe longterm yes or incase old Raila drop dead. Going head-to-head in Raila vs Ruto 

1% max

[Omollo]

2022 is all 100% tribal. Once the mobilization hits crescendo there won't be a person in Migori listening to anything else than Ragae & every Kalenjin will swallow Giddy's money but drink Koolaid Ruto. Kalonzo will be joined by his sister Ngilu to deliver votes somewhere sijui wapi. Oparanya will eclipse MaDvD once & for all.

What long term? You lose you're gone! You can hang around like MaDvD dropping in value every year or cut your losses become ambassador to Deep Outer Mongolia return quietly and eat your loot without provoking reprisals from scared local politicians.

Obado had one chance. He lost it. He can't run for governor again. He can't become an MP or even senator. He can only hope to become DP. I think he's reached end of the road.

If he was that good how come he got caught killing that prostitute girl? Are his people that good? How come he's in court for corruption?

A conman's "con-life" expectancy lasts until his name appears in the media associating him with conmanship. Huwa mchezo umeisha. There are money vaccum cleaning governors who are still feted as beacons of honesty. They built no chap chap roads. But they stole on industrial scale. Had you named one, I'd say Raila is in danger.

[Nowayhaha]

Obado is just playing Waigurus game. Or Ngilu Balala 2013 game. Having realised he stanes no chances come 2022 and end of the road as Governor . He best chances after going against Raila in Nyanza and Ruto as the incomming President is to slign to Ruto negotiate and perhsps become s CS  post 2022.
There is criminal and corruption case will dissapear.
Remember Obado has deep roots with Ruto and actually was made by Ruto. Like Sakaja politics of aligning with Uhuru 5hough deep down he is a Raila sympathiser  Obado stands a better chance aligning with Ruto than Raila.

[RV Pundit]

Correct - except he cannot become CS - parliament will not approve him with graft cases - but he can become other less critical role - like sugar board thing where Ruto found him.

Obado is just playing Waigurus game. Or Ngilu Balala 2013 game. Having realised he stanes no chances come 2022 and end of the road as Governor . He best chances after going against Raila in Nyanza and Ruto as the incomming President is to slign to Ruto negotiate and perhsps become s CS  post 2022.
There is criminal and corruption case will dissapear.
Remember Obado has deep roots with Ruto and actually was made by Ruto. Like Sakaja politics of aligning with Uhuru 5hough deep down he is a Raila sympathiser  Obado stands a better chance aligning with Ruto than Raila.

[RV Pundit]

If won against ODM and ODM has failed to impeach him; then Obado is no joke; I see him winning MP seat; But yes delivering Ruto votes - nope - maybe 5 percent of his own diehards. The same that Isaac Ruto delivered to Raila in Bomet.

Oparanya is done - he comes from small sub tribe of Luhya - and now Kakamega is gone completely sub-tribal. His failure in Matungu punctured him - Malala is the guy to beat. Oparanya cannot beat maDVD who start with solid Maragoli and related Luhyas.

Therefore I see maDVD retaining Vihiga and winning big part of Kakamega. I see Khaniri has gone silent - he use to be on Raila like white on rice. Raila of course can retain the Bunyores of Majengo-Maseno.

Busia is different ball game - it appears Luhyas of Busia are still in ODM - Ojaamong has long been silent - will he join Ruto - very likely (he was already in before anti-graft were on him) - and that will flip Teso to Ruto.

Bungoma is different story of Bukusu.

2022 is all 100% tribal. Once the mobilization hits crescendo there won't be a person in Migori listening to anything else than Ragae & every Kalenjin will swallow Giddy's money but drink Koolaid Ruto. Kalonzo will be joined by his sister Ngilu to deliver votes somewhere sijui wapi. Oparanya will eclipse MaDvD once & for all.

What long term? You lose you're gone! You can hang around like MaDvD dropping in value every year or cut your losses become ambassador to Deep Outer Mongolia return quietly and eat your loot without provoking reprisals from scared local politicians.

Obado had one chance. He lost it. He can't run for governor again. He can't become an MP or even senator. He can only hope to become DP. I think he's reached end of the road.

If he was that good how come he got caught killing that prostitute girl? Are his people that good? How come he's in court for corruption?

A conman's "con-life" expectancy lasts until his name appears in the media associating him with conmanship. Huwa mchezo umeisha. There are money vaccum cleaning governors who are still feted as beacons of honesty. They built no chap chap roads. But they stole on industrial scale. Had you named one, I'd say Raila is in danger.