Raila has lost squarely except in 2007. There is no machinery that can make your PORK. Moi would have won in 2002. Kibaki in 2007 had to rig brazenly and caused a big war.
Raila allways lost because he doesn't consolidate his support and work on new areas. It always been the same BBI kind of scramble coalition the last minute - and then proceed to destroy it by abusing and mistreating partners.
As for referendum - I have long held the view that timelines are impossible. That was from last year.
Yes there is a possibility it could make 2022 if judiciary doesn't send it to the dustbin: 50% possibility.
Raila is still popular but that never made him PORK. Cause machinery. Going against machinery is tried-&-tested path to failure.
BBI is Raila Manifesto - when you get that your MOAS will suddenly resurrect. While Ruto camp in Mt Kenya - Raila will just cut them BBI-PM cheque - and they vote him. Ditto for Kamba and shebang.
How can Ruto offer anything but DPORK? Please elaborate. Your confusion starts with believing what you read on news - about June referendum bla bla.
Unlike your loong lineup of 5 camps - 2022 is Yes-Raila vs Ruto-No. If you tell us how Ruto will wiggle out of this trojan we are all ears. Watermelon won't cut it as you saw in county landslide.
You don't understand politics. YOU DO NOT OFFER WHAT YOU DON"T HAVE. Unless you're saying BBI has hardcoded that President will be Raila 
. If BBI passes - Ruto will offer BBI positions to those guys around Raila.
What DOES RUTO OFFER - his POPULARITY - and that is what politicians want to ride.
People know Ruto is the MAN to BEAT in 2022 because he has RV nearly totally - that huge 25% - and is very popular in GEMA - I hope you've seen the pictures of Ruto in Meru this week - and has popularity and support across the nation.
Ruto is the new Raila. Raila was STRONG because he was nationally popular.
You sometimes make me doubt you sanity. It's probably bipolar.
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