Let start from basic premises. To succeed in life you need to use your hands (hardwork) and brains (to think). Moi definitely was not a thinker - he had limited education and therefore world view. But he was definitely a hardworker- he woke up at 5am, worked hard, managing the gov, until late, every day for 25yrs plus 10yrs as VP (Kenyatta was mostly cabbage then). How good Moi was - you need to compare Moi with his contemporaries in Africa - and you realize Moi (kenya) did extremely well - even during those bad years.
Let move to Kibaki. Kibaki definitely is very smart and brainy - but - due to health and age - and alcohol - he really has no time for the grind that leadership requires - long meetings - long phone-calls - long follow ups - supervision - being everywhere all the time - and you can see that despite economic recovery of NARC - he became hated, seen as a loof and actually lost 2005 referendum - and rigged 2007 - and nearly killed kenya. Moi had kept Kenya together - but just 5yrs - Kenya saw the worse violence and nearly civil war (the Army had to be called to quell violence).
Ruto did great in Jubilee 1.0. The data is out there. The evidence is all over. Jubilee improved from 50% to 55% in 2nd term. They won more seats in parliament and name it in 2017. They were so popular that Raila when given a chance to run again - decided to boycott.
It's reason Ruto is VERY POPULAR all over the country. People saw what he is capable of doing.
Exit Ruto and enter handshake - what are you seeing - Let me why handshake/BBI is so unpopular - the people can see the economic, political and social mess - from far.
2022 is Ruto election to lose. People know what Jubilee 1.0 did and they want more of it - more of roads, electricity, railways, tivets, development - and they want a leader that can unite the country - that can spread development fairly - and that is ever sober.
Raila time came and went. He is old, tired and people frankly don't want him anymore - in my estimation is now at 10 percent of national support.
Ruto is very exciting prospect - someone who is brilliant and a handworker - I can only compare him to Meles. The looting is just the AK47 - otherwise Ruto if he was interested in just amassing wealth to become super-rich like Gideon so he can play polo with Kings and queens - you won't see him donating the same money - and use it for political purpose. Ruto is serious contender mostly because of the same money he has looted - otherwise if he was another poor Joe - he would just be Prof Kivutha Kibwana type of candidate for PORK or Kalonzo.
Once Ruto has shot his way to Nairobi using KSHS and other weapones, like Meles, Museveni and Kagame did shoot their way to Adis or Kampala or Kigali - there will be no need to engage in more shooting (looting) - Ruto will now focus on getting his vision to fruition.
Why would president Ruto engage in more harambees post 2020 when he can roll out gov programs to fix those issues.Any idiot in kenya politics knows 101 - You need MONEY - Kenyans want someone to contribute money to fix their immediate problems - no money - no support - but dish out money and you start getting very popular. Any idiot in Ethiopia or Uganda or Rwanda knows you need BIG GUNS.
I know you are keen to conflate things but Moi was nothing like Magufuli. He was harebrained fool like Ruto - especially in the free-for-all looting. I think you are very wrong to quick grade Ruto with Kagame or Meles - all we have from few years of Ruto as co-PORK is mountain of debt and Guinness worthy looting. Development is happening in Jubilee 2 - just as it deed in early NARC.
Anyway we have good chance of witnessing Ruto or Raila as PORK - and it would be lots of first gloating then buyer's remorse under Ruto - as looting skyrocket to beat Nigeria.