Pastoralist minimum to support BBI - methink Raila will bend?

[RV Pundit]

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Irreducible Minimums
Resource Allocation: The proposed amendment on Article 203 (1) of the constitution be deleted and Article 203 of the constitution be retained as it is stipulated in the 2010 constitution.
Secure the 290 constituencies, the 70 proposed seats be divided equally among 47 counties, retain 47 women reps at the National Assembly.
Protection of pastoralism community land, game reserves and wildlife corridors.
Remove the proposed Health Service Commission.
Backtrack the Equilization fund from 20 years.
Senate to remain Upper House, to approve all constitutional appointments. Retain Article 123 of the Constitution.
Removal of the proposed Judiciary Ombudsman.
IEBC be exempted from political influence.
End of discrimination against the Pastoralist communities on registration and issuance of IDs.
Guaranteed education to pastoralist children and localized recruitment of teachers.
Exportation of their livestock for better markets.

[RV Pundit]

Sound like Ruto will sweep the pastoralist nation - with Raila busy trying to win GEMA.  Two birds in the bush -

Mzito Ruto slowly moving towards 70%.

[Nefertiti]

Dream on ati 70% - Mobutu is now running on empty in Mt Kenya. Gema noises about MPs, revenues, etc are now replaced by general "poor people" issues. Even youth are hard to nail cause BBI goodies. Raila of course is very keen to please Gema - giving alot and getting no instant gratification till 2022.

Pastoralists will struggle with 35% vs 15% status quo that favor them. They will split.

Sound like Ruto will sweep the pastoralist nation - with Raila busy trying to win GEMA.  Two birds in the bush -

Mzito Ruto slowly moving towards 70%.

[RV Pundit]

Two birds (GEMA) better than one bird in hand - was lower primary kind of debate.
So far - after 3yrs - Raila in GEMA mind is exactly - where he was - unwelcomed.
The best way to win election is not to start every election from the scratch.
It why many think Raila is cursed like Sisyphean. Just when he is about to tip it over - he starts again from the scratch.
While someone like Ruto is busy CONSOLIDATING.

If Raila had a brain he would have at first tried to secure NASA 45%.
Then work day and night to get the 5%..that he ought to have done in 2013.

But now 3 elections - 45% - 2007 -45% - 2013 -45% - 2016 -45%.

To win - you just need 50% - and so from 2007 - Raila has just needed 5% - 5% is very little work - if you're strategic.


But immediately after every election - he smashes the board - like he did with Ruto in 2007 - Kalonzo and maDVD -

And this time round - he has completely smashed it hoping Jubilee will similarly implode

Now looking at him - he is at 15-20

While Ruto is playing 65%

Dream on ati 70% - Mobutu is now running on empty in Mt Kenya. Gema noises about MPs, revenues, etc are now replaced by general "poor people" issues. Even youth are hard to nail cause BBI goodies. Raila of course is very keen to please Gema - giving alot and getting no instant gratification till 2022.

Pastoralists will struggle with 35% vs 15% status quo that favor them. They will split.

Sound like Ruto will sweep the pastoralist nation - with Raila busy trying to win GEMA.  Two birds in the bush -

Mzito Ruto slowly moving towards 70%.

[Nefertiti]

Assume this is true - Raila has BBI carrot which address many issues. He has changed contest from Raila vs Mobutu to BBI vs hustler.

Two birds (GEMA) better than one bird - was lower primary kind of debate.
So far - after 3yrs - Raila in GEMA mind is exactly - where he was - unwelcomed.

Dream on ati 70% - Mobutu is now running on empty in Mt Kenya. Gema noises about MPs, revenues, etc are now replaced by general "poor people" issues. Even youth are hard to nail cause BBI goodies. Raila of course is very keen to please Gema - giving alot and getting no instant gratification till 2022.

Pastoralists will struggle with 35% vs 15% status quo that favor them. They will split.

Sound like Ruto will sweep the pastoralist nation - with Raila busy trying to win GEMA.  Two birds in the bush -

Mzito Ruto slowly moving towards 70%.

[RV Pundit]

BBI has no takers outside Luo Nyanza. Uhuru took it to Nyeri and not a single soul. In fact Mt Kenya is the most Anti-BBI. You'll soon understand. Because you're slow.

Mt kenya see all extra positions as a burden.

You need to understand their perspectives.

They have had PORK for 20yrs. They think esp under Uhuru it's been USELESS. So adding more position for them - is more uselessness - at great expenses.

The rest of country have levelled with GEMA - thanks to devolution.

So BBI is double whammy - fact that 1) Raila is behind it and 2) it's useless for them. Only the Luos are excited with BBI - because they naively think it's prepping the ground for H.E PRIME MINISTER ODINGA

Assume this is true - Raila has BBI carrot which address many issues. He has changed contest from Raila vs Mobutu to BBI vs hustler.

[Nefertiti]

Let me ask: is hustler wave everywhere outside Luo or only in Gema? Is there hustler in Msambweni? That better test than Pundit vs Robina entrenched views.

BBI has no takers outside Luo Nyanza. Uhuru took it to Nyeri and not a single soul. In fact Mt Kenya is the most Anti-BBI. You'll soon understand. Because you're slow.

Mt kenya see all extra positions as a burden.

You need to understand their perspectives.

They have had PORK for 20yrs. They think esp under Uhuru it's been USELESS. So adding more position for them - is more uselessness - at great expenses.

The rest of country have levelled with GEMA - thanks to devolution.

So BBI is double whammy - fact that 1) Raila is behind it and 2) it's useless for them. Only the Luos are excited with BBI - because they naively think it's prepping the ground for H.E PRIME MINISTER ODINGA

Assume this is true - Raila has BBI carrot which address many issues. He has changed contest from Raila vs Mobutu to BBI vs hustler.

[RV Pundit]

Why Msambweni - you're just desperate; Msambweni in ÓDM zone has you on the toes like Kibra. Meanwhile Jubilee zones are intact. Ruto is playing the ball in NASA half field..while Raila cannot penetrate Jubilee zone.

Let me ask: is hustler wave everywhere outside Luo or only in Gema? Is there hustler in Msambweni? That better test than Pundit vs Robina entrenched views.

[Nefertiti]

  Kwale is a swing county. The late Dori won by whisker in 2017. These are Mijikenda not Luo... 60% are dirt-poor so it should be hustler walkover. But in reality it just another horizon.

KWALE COUNTY 2017-
Governor - Jubilee
Senator - ODM
Woman rep - ODM
MPs - ODM 2, ANC 1, Jubilee 1

Why Msambweni - you're just desperate; Msambweni in ÓDM zone has you on the toes like Kibra. Meanwhile Jubilee zones are intact. Ruto is playing the ball in NASA half field..while Raila cannot penetrate Jubilee zone.

Let me ask: is hustler wave everywhere outside Luo or only in Gema? Is there hustler in Msambweni? That better test than Pundit vs Robina entrenched views.