I consider all factors - both favourable and unfavourable. PEV is pretty much a factor. Now I don't think you really understand NARC revolution. You should ask some of us. You maybe was too you. 1/3 of Kalenjin voted NARC. Narc was anger against moi project. It was a revolution. Moi promised maDVD - actually made him VP - and he lost his parliamentary seat.
Now this hustler movement thing if mishandled could become a revolution of the poor against the rich.
Anwyay there is a reason why you're political punditry is awlful at best
Pundit's kneejerk PEV is a concession speech. UhuruRao vs Ruto is 2002 redux - 70-25%. BBI is NARC with the dream lineup of PORK, 2 VP, PM, 2 DPM, FPE and all the manna - in 100 days. There will be no BBI after elections of course - after Raila and Uhuru stooge PK are sworn in - few usual noisemakers will be fired. Broke Kalonzo, Mdvd, Oparanyas, Johos are desperate for soft landing so they are happy to play along for senior CS. Once his interests are secured from the new Enemy of the State - Uhuru will go replace Mkapa and Mbeki as Burundi peacemaker - or other ceremonial statesman duties.