Robina's BBI I think died this week

[Nefertiti]

Pundit - that lots of options in your analysis - I don't see it. Mdvd and Kalonzo may be delusional enough to run for PORK again - 2007 and 2013 failed to knock sense into them - but they will retire in big anti-climax. Raila and Ruto are the only viable candidates - every Wanjiku knows this. That's why they are struggling to tether their tiny flocks - as Kibwana and Malalas defy them. Kalonzo as usual is angling for katikati Handshake or GEMA candidate. But noone will back the 8% joke and Raila will bag the governors. If Kalonzo runs he will wind up with half Kamba.

Mdvd the other fool is angling to be Ruto runningmate - which is pipedream. He will be forced to run solo with Savula as campaign manager - all Malalas, Oparanyas, Barasas, Khalwales are with Ruto or Raila. Even Kioni cannot agree to be Mdvd runningmate again. He will get half Vihiga. But scorned Luhya will break for Raila who has the most influencers in Luhya ground.

I wonder why you have entirely discarded influencers? Kingi or Jumwa will not run for PORK but will back Raila or Ruto. Same as Gusii, Maa, Somali, etc - that determines who bags most non-GEMA. Who of the two kahuna has more influencers? Raila with Uhuru backing picks a PK stooge as runningmate. Ruto picks MK. GEMA splits. Non- GEMA scramble will depend on influencers.

Uhuruto nicked it in round 1 despite Mdvd. There is equally no serious 3rd horse this time.

[RV Pundit]

A lot really depend on GEMA. That is where you should focus on. They have 4 options. Ruto. Their own. Their stooge and lastly Raila. Within Gema itself there is no unity - there is huge split.

Raila health is also now an issue.

As for utlity players like maDVD, Kalonzo and the likes they are playing.

Pwani - watch Joho - but don't forget he is not a mijikenda - if Amason Kingi and Kwale governor merge - Joho will be left with swahilis and mombasa luos - doa.

I believe Amason Kingi is driving the formation of Coast Party. For Ruto his strategy for Coast, Luhya and Gusii is the same - if he cannot get it - Raila should not get it.

Pundit - that lots of options in your analysis - I don't see it. Mdvd and Kalonzo may be delusional enough to run for PORK again - 2007 and 2013 failed to knock sense into them - but they will retire in big anti-climax. Raila and Ruto are the only viable candidates - every Wanjiku knows this. That's why they are struggling to tether their tiny flocks - as Kibwana and Malalas defy them. Kalonzo as usual is angling for katikati Handshake or GEMA candidate. But noone will back the 8% joke and Raila will bag the governors. If Kalonzo runs he will wind up with half Kamba.

Mdvd the other fool is angling to be Ruto runningmate - which is pipedream. He will be forced to run solo with Savula as campaign manager - all Malalas, Oparanyas, Barasas, Khalwales are with Ruto or Raila. Even Kioni cannot agree to be Mdvd runningmate again. He will get half Vihiga. But scorned Luhya will break for Raila who has the most influencers in Luhya ground.

I wonder why you have entirely discarded influencers? Kingi or Jumwa will not run for PORK but will back Raila or Ruto. Same as Gusii, Maa, Somali, etc - that determines who bags most non-GEMA. Who of the two kahuna has more influencers? Raila with Uhuru backing picks a PK stooge as runningmate. Ruto picks MK. GEMA splits. Non- GEMA scramble will depend on influencers.

Uhuruto nicked it in round 1 despite Mdvd. There is equally no serious 3rd horse this time.

[Nowayhaha]

Pundit no GEMA politician agrees with Ruto nor fight Uhuru on this one. Not even Kihika with 40% Kalenjin safety net. Except small professor of Tharaka with tiny population. Ruto is cutting his losses in Mt Kenya.

You amaze me  so few weeks ago Ruto didnt have the numbers but now he is winning .....

Winning what exactly?

All RV senators voted with Mt Kenya , with exception of Kindiki and Murkomen. So Ruto is also cutting losses in RV. The wishful thinking exhibited by ODM supporters is their downfall. If we were to use the same logic so All Coast senators who voted against the debate are now Pro Ruto ?
Rutos stand was clear come with a win win formulae. Weeks ago you were rejoicing saying Ruto had no numbers , we told the bare truth Nominated Senators and Kanu senators made the purge in Jubilee possible.
Its now clear party politics is different from senate/parliament  poltics and also different from national politics. Its eveident a combination of Uhuru and Raila could not influence a senate outcome  this should be awakening call  that national politics is very different .you saw Nyanza voting with Mt Kenya do you expect that in 2022 ?