Uhuru: I won't go for another term

[Garliv]

Actually i do get it. Very much so. It doesn't matter whether you form your own party or be the leader of some party with Raila. Similar dynamics are at work.
Eg... If Uhuru is chosen to be a leader of say BBI Party and yet at the election his base doesn't support him meaning HE BRINGS NOTHING TO BBI PARTY. Then in that case he can be kicked out and BBI Party replace him with someone with solid support. Same thing has worked at Jubilee for example.. It's mostly combined TNA and URP. Ruto brings URP side and so does Uhuru bring TNA.
NASA combined Wiper and Ford plus other smaller parties. These are the practical dynamics of Kenyan politics. What you bring onto the table (votes +MPs) determine pecking order. In a Parliamentary system one has to purely depends on number of MPs.

I don't think you get it. The party leader is automatically the PM. MP's don't vote on that. Only change in party leadership changes the PM. If you impeach the PM you go for elections - so it can't be for parochial or corrupt reasons. Donge? Study Israel, UK, Germany, Australia, RSA, name it.

So you see Uhuru only needs to be leader of the registered Handshake coalition. Once he is PM - he can use the power to line up support among those groups you imagine will impeach him. Same as the Handshake now where Ruto is DP with a majority of Jubilee MPs yet can't do anything despite endless matharao.

PM is about accountability - no hiding in State House, explaining and debating publicly and adequately the GoK policies. And separation of power - no assenting/vetoing laws, refusing to swear judges, and abusing deity status to escape scrutiny. In short parliamentary takes away impunity.

PM does not report to the president who is separate head of state - the residual power where mandate rests to avoid vacuum or chaos. All 3 arms of GoK become squarely equal once the state is separated from the Executive.

About influencers and foot soldiers, Ruto's Mt Kenya following is wearing out rapidly. He has zero governors now. 3 or 4 senators - Kihika, Kindiki, Linturi. A place like Kiambu the MCAs firing Waititu and supporting Nyoro indicates Tangatanga lack of influence. Ruto's painstaking clinging onto Uhurutopia or Jubilee unity says alot about his fear of Uhuru influence. Otherwise he would overthrow him in Jubilee with his superior numbers.

As soon as Uhuru 2.0 is formally declared, Ruto will be abandoned heartlessly. Those MPs are unsure about BBI outcome and they are enjoying his handouts. I pity Ruto because he has no control of the wazee. He is at Raila and Uhuru's mercy. There is no magic he can use to beat tried & tested tribalism to beat Uhuru in Mt Kenya. Mlolongo is the biggest blunder of his career.

Most sheeple follow their leader. But also it happens that for a leader to generate critical support he must sell his ideas to those who will sell it. Among latter groups are thinkers and community influencers. If they are hesitant with an idea then the leader may lack necessary support. It's happening to Uhuru. His support team cannot convince people of the merit of what he's doing.

Heri aseme he's supporting Raila/Waiguru ticket but these parliamentary is plainly "selling everyone for him to be PM".

Truly truly check parliamentary numbers and convince me Uhuru is better off! Indeed, Raila can easily screw him since he will not raise enough number of MPs....

[Nefertiti]

I was rebutting to that Mt Kenya MPs are fewer than its popularity. This does not stop the party leader from becoming PM. Jubilee is unable to unsit Uhuru presently.

It is a separate point if or not Uhuru commands the loyalty of Mt Kenya MPs. Presently that's diluted by the presidential powers. Under parliamentary they would be everything and Ruto would not be allowed anywhere near them. He was giving Uhuru presidential power as a red herring for his mlolongo mischief. Kenya is presidential so it was a blunder not an effective coup. You are either the butcher or meat.

Actually i do get it. Very much so. It doesn't matter whether you form your own party or be the leader of some party with Raila. Similar dynamics are at work.
Eg... If Uhuru is chosen to be a leader of say BBI Party and yet at the election his base doesn't support him meaning HE BRINGS NOTHING TO BBI PARTY. Then in that case he can be kicked out and BBI Party replace him with someone with solid support. Same thing has worked at Jubilee for example.. It's mostly combined TNA and URP. Ruto brings URP side and so does Uhuru bring TNA.
NASA combined Wiper and Ford plus other smaller parties. These are the practical dynamics of Kenyan politics. What you bring onto the table (votes +MPs) determine pecking order. In a Parliamentary system one has to purely depends on number of MPs.

[Garliv]

True. Having "fewer" MPs than population is a question of whether representation can be said to be fair (democratic) or not. It doesn't prevent Uhuru being leader of BBI Party or whichever party they form with Raila. However my point is that having fewer MPs behind you then being appointed the leader of a party/coalition negates whole point of a parliamentary system. It's like Labour's Party Leader Corbyn supporting Nicola Sturgeon for PM yet Labour has more MPs.
Second, at the moment if it were a Parliamentary System Ruto would actually unseat Uhuru. He would just withdraw his support and maybe make a deal with ODM and he takes over as PM or we go for elections. That's how dicey parliamentary system is.

I was rebutting to that Mt Kenya MPs are fewer than its popularity. This does not stop the party leader from becoming PM. Jubilee is unable to unsit Uhuru presently.

It is a separate point if or not Uhuru commands the loyalty of Mt Kenya MPs. Presently that's diluted by the presidential powers. Under parliamentary they would be everything and Ruto would not be allowed anywhere near them. He was giving Uhuru presidential power as a red herring for his mlolongo mischief. Kenya is presidential so it was a blunder not an effective coup. You are either the butcher or meat.

[Nefertiti]

Not so simple. See - the Lib Dems made a deal with the Tories 2010-15 - then they were wiped out. Their base felt betrayed. This was caused by ideological differences. They learnt the lesson and will not do it again.

ODM was the biggest party for a long time - 2008-2017. Raila did not become president. This is because coalitions are based on many factors - ideological differences with URP (liberal vs conservative), competing constituency in non-Gema, domineering personas that conflict, etc. Ruto is very likely to continue to be isolated as he is right now. Noone wants to back anyone who then directly takes over their constituency as Ruto has attempted to do in Mt Kenya. Raila attempted this in Kalenjin 2008-12 and it cost him the presidency. The "big groups" of pastoralists (URP) and the Raila coalition of Luos-Luhya-Mijikenda (ODM) have too many points of conflict. But insular Gema don't threaten your base.

Expect Uhuru to get more offers of coalition than Ruto and Raila combined. Gema insularity is a strength not a weakness.

True. Having "fewer" MPs than population is a question of whether representation can be said to be fair (democratic) or not. It doesn't prevent Uhuru being leader of BBI Party or whichever party they form with Raila. However my point is that having fewer MPs behind you then being appointed the leader of a party/coalition negates whole point of a parliamentary system. It's like Labour's Party Leader Corbyn supporting Nicola Sturgeon for PM yet Labour has more MPs.
Second, at the moment if it were a Parliamentary System Ruto would actually unseat Uhuru. He would just withdraw his support and maybe make a deal with ODM and he takes over as PM or we go for elections. That's how dicey parliamentary system is.

[Nefertiti]