Ruto's bloodless coup

[Nefertiti]

This is new - link to the polls?

Ruto has a grip on 40 counties? Can you discuss Maa for instance - what camp are Lenku, Senator Mpaayie in? Mau actually makes Maa & Kalenjin oil and water. Kalenjin MP's even try to deflect by threatening far- flung Kikuyus.

Ati some trouble only in Mombasa - how about Kingi and Mvurya? Samboja? Ngilu? Kibwana? Mutua? Oparanya? Otichillo? Ojaamong? There are many Jumwas following Ruto all over. PAWNS. But few Duales and Nanoks. As you saw Duale and NFD want parliamentary and expressly defied Ruto. Likes of Garissa Governor Ali Korane are in Handshake. And of course Senator Haji. Wajir Governor Mohamed Abdi is Handshake. NFD is 50-50 at best. Unbankable.

I don't mean to be forensic but parliamentary seem to unite everyone against Kikuyu and Kalenjin. Bottomline as it is emerging if Raila and Uhuru pull BBI 2.0 - full parliamentary - Ruto does not stand a chance. It a no-brainer really - inclusion vs another 50 years of Kalenjin-Kikuyu.

Spin on brother.

Btw Ruto and Raila outside GEMA - Ruto has huge edge. Don't take Robina word. Where Ruto has struggled lately has been Coast & Gusii but he has made headway in Western (14 mps recently held a meeting to support him), Ruto of course long conguered Matusa+Somali+related. That is like 2/3 of Kenya landmass. In fact I can name in one hand counties Ruto is struggling in - Luo Nyanza 4 + Gusii 2( Matiangi is new hope)+ maybe Busia & Vihiga - plus maybe Mombasa. Otherwise the rest of kenya's nearly 40 counties Ruto has serious play.

That is why opinion poll are showing Ruto with UNPRECEDENTED 40% in opinion polls 2yrs before elections. I don't recall anybody come that close in any opinion polls this early.Everyone can see Ruto is the clear front-runner - and they can see Raila has clearly lost his marble & has no chance -

I won't be suprised if Ruto win by 2/3 (63%) in 2022 ceteris peribus.

[Nefertiti]

Kibra was a small demo of how the GoK machinery works. Ruto's millions could not save him. Even if you pretend there is some ballot merit, Ruto badly needs Gema to beat Raila yet Uhuru 2.0 is an unsurmountable hurdle.

Pundit will still tell you Raila is being played by Uhuruto and it doesn't count what Ndii, Ngunyi, Manyora and anyone thinks. Because he has a track record on these matters. He will then show you an opinion poll of what the people think.

RV pundit is still acting as if presidential elections in Kenya are won at the ballot box. Nobody believes that crap anymore.  Ruto has shown his hands too early and given Ouru enough time to stop him out of his bedroom.  His best bet is to find a way he can get rid of Ouru before 2022 and assume power to control the 2022 ballot.

He would have to recall Davis Chirchir to cook the figures.

I won't be suprised if Ruto win by 2/3 (63%) in 2022 ceteris peribus.

[patel]

Ruto has mt. Kenya votes now but the elections are 3 yrs out....that's a long time...small small propaganda would torpedo Ruto votes faster than you can say Ngwe..kin to building a sky scrapper on shaky ground. In 2017 uhuru had 100% Gema and 100% kalenjin vote and still lost 40 - 60 to Raila.

[Kichwa]

The best Ruto can expect is a divided Kikuyu vote which cannot help him but Pundit is deluding himself that Kenyan presidential elections are won at the ballot. Ruto knows this and that is why he was plotting to get rid of Ouru before 2022 and be in power for the 2022 elections. Even Kenyattaa droping dead before 2022 may not land him the presidency the way things are at the moment.

Ruto has mt. Kenya votes now but the elections are 3 yrs out....that's a long time...small small propaganda would torpedo Ruto votes faster than you can say Ngwe..kin to building a sky scrapper on shaky ground. In 2017 uhuru had 100% Gema and 100% kalenjin vote and still lost 40 - 60 to Raila.

[RV Pundit]

BBI showed Uhuru is supporting Ruto in a smart way. The talk about BBI 2.0 $ parliamentary systems are over.There is no time for that.Uhuru can only do that to buy more time from the stone throwing gangs of odm.If Raila and ODM are betting on Uhuru they will soon discover like Sonko Uhuru has no time for politics.He is done.He wants to go home.As for Robina tracking governors..those are scared of being kicked out by kibicho boys after judicial constitutional coup on them.Ruto didn't lose kibra...he gained new ground or at least soften it.