Okay lets assume all the big five pick their candidates - so we talking of run-off scenarios.
1) Assume GEMA pick their own candidate - I am not sure who that be now - PK or Moses Kuria:). I am not sure when that magic will happen - when Uhuru will quit Jubilee, go tribal and fish Moses Kuria from his bag of tricks.
2) 80yr old Raila will try to ran again - this time backed by Luos and big maybe Joho's if he pick him as running mate. Raila is not getting NASA brigade again. That bridge is burn beyond recognition. He may try Gideon Moi combo?
3) MaDVD will ran of course backed by Maragolis.Wetangula and Bukusu - who knows. Kakmega gov is also seriously thinking of running. More chaos in LuhyaLand.
4)Kalonzo will be running together with Mutua, Prof Mutua and Prof from Makueni.
5) The man of the hour William Ruto - backed by KAMATUSA+ Pastoralist + part of coast, luhya,coast and gusii-kurias - will alone start from 25-30% of the vote.All Ruto will need is strong running mate....and here can he either go Luhya or Meru+Embu or Kikuyu diaspora like Kiunjuri depend on how it goes. Obviously GEMA diaspora knows they will pay the price of betrayal and will go rogue - and vote Ruto.
In such scenarios - you see William Ruto - without Uhuru backing already past 40% - and for the run-off - Ruto will make a deal with any of 10% - and voila - home & dry.
That is Ruto plan A - Ruto plan B- Uhuru picks Ruto running mate, become Jubilee party leader and Ruto sleep walk to statehouse.
Gema will neither choose Ruto nor Raila.Take that to equity or put it under your mattress.And if you delude yourself that the GEMA nation does not have sons and daughters to vie for presidency,then a big shock awaits you my friend Pundito.
As for Raila,he is used to the shagging by GEMA,and i know he hasnt placed all his bets on the gema vote.He must have hidden some cards.
As for Arap Mashamba,he has placed all his hopes on the gema votes.He doesnt seem to have a plan B.Only option available to him is to unleash his worriors on Kikuyus in RV which will do him more harm than good.(Read Sudi and mandago).