Pundit: Forex reserve at 10months low

[Higgins the genius]

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I think their is a problem! Shall we overcome it or the dollar will go to over 107?

[RV Pundit]

How Kshs is surviving when USD is now wrecking havoc all over is impressive. Tanzania are now using the army to close forex shops in bid to stem Kshs decline. Anyway these are exogenous risk - and - we are still good with 5 months cover.

[RVtitem]

How Kshs is surviving when USD is now wrecking havoc all over is impressive. Tanzania are now using the army to close forex shops in bid to stem Kshs decline. Anyway these are exogenous risk - and - we are still good with 5 months cover.

There's rumors that Kenyans started to cross over to Arusha to buy dollars which made TZ government deploy military to stop dollar outflow.

[hk]

Forex reserve will continue to decrease cause CBK is trying to defend the shilling. CBK has spent almost $1b defending and still the shilling has depreciated to 103. Even worse Eurobonds payments are due. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/fixed-income .

[RV Pundit]

I blame IMF - for claiming Kshs was managed currency and overvalued by 17% - but Kshs will survive. I think Rotich will float another Euro soon.

Forex reserve will continue to decrease cause CBK is trying to defend the shilling. CBK has spent almost $1b defending and still the shilling has depreciated to 103. Even worse Eurobonds payments are due. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/fixed-income .

[hk]

I blame IMF - for claiming Kshs was managed currency and overvalued by 17% - but Kshs will survive. I think Rotich will float another Euro soon.

Forex reserve will continue to decrease cause CBK is trying to defend the shilling. CBK has spent almost $1b defending and still the shilling has depreciated to 103. Even worse Eurobonds payments are due. https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/fixed-income .

Why blame the messenger? The blame should be entirely on jubilee government that's running huge budget deficits. Another Eurobond will be pegged at very high interest rate, probably 9-10%. 

[RV Pundit]

You know this confidence game - bad messaging could harm Kshs. IMF are still livid because we told them to hit the road with their standby facility.

Why blame the messenger? The blame should be entirely on jubilee government that's running huge budget deficits. Another Eurobond will be pegged at very high interest rate, probably 9-10%. 

[hk]

You know this confidence game - bad messaging could harm Kshs. IMF are still livid because we told them to hit the road with their standby facility.

Its about fundamentals. If government had kept 3% budget deficit the ksh. would be fine. Now the private sector isn't expanding enough to finance the budget. With the raised taxation, the expected revenue isn't being realized. Further raising the budget deficits. The only good news on the horizon is cheaper crude oil, which should ease demand of forex.

[hk]

Forex reserves fall further to below $8b https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/markets/marketnews/Treasury-forex-reserves-fall-to-lowest-level-since/3815534-4889426-155hxpl/index.html . 

[Georgesoros]

You know this confidence game - bad messaging could harm Kshs. IMF are still livid because we told them to hit the road with their standby facility.

Its about fundamentals. If government had kept 3% budget deficit the ksh. would be fine. Now the private sector isn't expanding enough to finance the budget. With the raised taxation, the expected revenue isn't being realized. Further raising the budget deficits. The only good news on the horizon is cheaper crude oil, which should ease demand of forex.

Kenya will be fine if they cut taxes, raise them for a few billionaires, and cut blotted govt. They cant keep borrowing like drunk sailors to finance govt.