The end game is clear...Raila-Joho as 3 musketeers are left hanging high & dry.

[RV Pundit]

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It obvious Raila biggest head-ache after loosing election was the pesky Kalonzo & MaDVD pressing him to "hand over" his political capital to them. And Raila just pulled a jujitsu move and manage to re-engineer himself. I must give the man kudos. But he is dealing with foolish political type like MaDVD & Kalonzo..who cannot see two moves ahead.

Whatever these 3 musketeers do...they will be seen as cowardly betrayers...never mind that Raila made that happen

Their options....
1) Splinter - each for it's own and try cut their own deal.
2) Remain in NASA - bow to the Engineer Raila -- and stick around Raila - and hope  beat Ruto with less enthusiastic GEMA backing in 2022.
3) Form a coalition - together with likes of Giddy & Mutua.

I would advice them to try No 3 .

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001269507/kalonzo-will-not-take-oath-as-people-s-deputy-president-says-farah-maalim

[veritas]

Secession.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit I agree with the analysis. In short the NASA jumbo is headed into headwinds. But in the musketeer legend were valiant vigilantes who fought for justice. This cowardly trio is anything but.

[veritas]

There are two presidents in Kenya right now. Uhuruto can recieve tax money from Kikuyus and Railonzo from all Kenyans. Simple as that. Just a matter of splitting the judiciary and drawing territorial lines for racket forces. For instance, any police stations in Central can declare their allegience to Uhuruto, all other provinces and affiliated counties to Railonzo.

[bryan275]

All this is very true.  The only fly in the cowards' ointment is the fact that the people are not with them.  They will bring just theselves and a few hangers on.  Some coalition, huh?

The 30th marked the end of tribal kingpins in NASA..... the message has een the same in the regions that these cowards hail from... they're finished politically.  The 2022 ticket will be a Joho -Miguna ticket....

[Kichwa]

Wrong analysis. At a certain point the movement transformed into a people led movement.  The change occurred very subtly and quietly immediately after the boycott.  Although the principles came up with the idea of the boycott and led up to that point, they lost control after the people realized their political power with the 11/26/2017 election boycott.  Ouru is now a paper president but not a political president because more than half of the country did not vote for him. The NASA principles were confronted with this new people power for the first time on December 12, 2017 when Raila was supposed to be sworn in but he backed off.  The backlash was swift and even Raila was shocked. Raila being a seasoned politician read the mood of the people very quickly but the other three principles did not get the point.  That is also the same time that Miguna and Ndii became the darling of the movement.  It is therefore false that Raila played the other principles, they probably also read the mood of the people but they are cowards and could not cross the Rubicon with the people and were therefore left behind but Raila did.  They only have themselves to blame.  The best example is that on January 30th at 1:00pm when Uhuru park was already filled with NASA supporters, the other three were still trying to persuade Raila not to go to the swearing in ceremony.  Can you imagine what would have happened to NASA if Raila failed to appear? They wanted to destroy Raila politically because that is what would have happened if Raila failed to take the oath. As Miguna correctly put it, "Raila had no choice that day but to take the oath". It took the 2nd liberators years to reach where NASA movement is now and that is why I know they will succeed.  Those who are imagining that 2022 will just be another 2013 or 2017 and can make predictions based on those models are in for a big surprise. 2013 was different from 2017 but 2022 will be much more different.  This movement cannot be wished away.

It obvious Raila biggest head-ache after loosing election was the pesky Kalonzo & MaDVD pressing him to "hand over" his political capital to them. And Raila just pulled a jujitsu move and manage to re-engineer himself. I must give the man kudos. But he is dealing with foolish political type like MaDVD & Kalonzo..who cannot see two moves ahead.

Whatever these 3 musketeers do...they will be seen as cowardly betrayers...never mind that Raila made that happen

Their options....
1) Splinter - each for it's own and try cut their own deal.
2) Remain in NASA - bow to the Engineer Raila -- and stick around Raila - and hope  beat Ruto with less enthusiastic GEMA backing in 2022.
3) Form a coalition - together with likes of Giddy & Mutua.

I would advice them to try No 3 .

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001269507/kalonzo-will-not-take-oath-as-people-s-deputy-president-says-farah-maalim

[RV Pundit]

As a Ruto supporter. This is very good news. Raila on ballot is the motivation we need to drive GEMA to the ballot. MaDVD & Kalonzo were never gonna be a threat to anybody. MaDVD cannot even bring home Vihiga. Kalonzo has had kambas..but I think Mutua, Ngilu and Prof Kivutha...may have other plans...so basically it looking like Raila get another chance to get another arse whoooping.The day Raila realizes he cannot be the king but kingmaker (2002 redux) - I'll be very worried. He has the ability to pull 2002 by rallying everyone against say WSR however we know Luos and him feel so entitled to the seat..they cannot even entertain backing MaDVD or Kalonzo...who are more competitive than Raila (but with Raila backing).

In fact Raila could well put another Kikuyu head as NASA coalition and well beat Ruto. But can he back either Dr Ndii or Wanjigi That remains to be seen.

The country will always be divided roughly into half...we have no problem with that...the winner has to win by extra vote..and loser have to go back to drawing board and strategize.

Wrong analysis. At a certain point the movement transformed into a people led movement.  The change occurred very subtly and quietly immediately after the boycott.  Although the principles came up with the idea of the boycott and led up to that point, they lost control after the people realized their political power with the 11/26/2017 election boycott.  Ouru is now a paper president but not a political president because more than half of the country did not vote for him. The NASA principles were confronted with this new people power for the first time on December 12, 2017 when Raila was supposed to be sworn in but he backed off.  The backlash was swift and even Raila was shocked. Raila being a seasoned politician read the mood of the people very quickly but the other three principles did not get the point.  That is also the same time that Miguna and Ndii became the darling of the movement.  It is therefore false that Raila played the other principles, they probably also read the mood of the people but they are cowards and could not cross the Rubicon with the people and were therefore left behind but Raila did.  They only have themselves to blame.  The best example is that on January 30th at 1:00pm when Uhuru park was already filled with NASA supporters, the other three were still trying to persuade Raila not to go to the swearing in ceremony.  Can you imagine what would have happened to NASA if Raila failed to appear? They wanted to destroy Raila politically because that is what would have happened if Raila failed to take the oath. As Miguna correctly put it, "Raila had no choice that day but to take the oath". It took the 2nd liberators years to reach where NASA movement is now and that is why I know they will succeed.  Those who are imagining that 2022 will just be another 2013 or 2017 and can make predictions based on those models are in for a big surprise. 2013 was different from 2017 but 2022 will be much more different.  This movement cannot be wished away.

[Kichwa]

Who said Raila will be on the ballot.  Regardless of who is going to be on the ballot, the rules of the game is not going to be the same.

As a Ruto supporter. This is very good news. Raila on ballot is the motivation we need to drive GEMA to the ballot. MaDVD & Kalonzo were never gonna be a threat to anybody. MaDVD cannot even bring home Vihiga. Kalonzo has had kambas..but I think Mutua, Ngilu and Prof Kivutha...may have other plans...so basically it looking like Raila get another chance to get another arse whoooping.The day Raila realizes he cannot be the king but kingmaker (2002 redux) - I'll be very worried. He has the ability to pull 2002 by rallying everyone against say WSR however we know Luos and him feel so entitled to the seat..they cannot even entertain backing MaDVD or Kalonzo...who are more competitive than Raila (but with Raila backing).

In fact Raila could well put another Kikuyu head as NASA coalition and well beat Ruto. But can he back either Dr Ndii or Wanjigi That remains to be seen.

The country will always be divided roughly into half...we have no problem with that...the winner has to win by extra vote..and loser have to go back to drawing board and strategize.

Wrong analysis. At a certain point the movement transformed into a people led movement.  The change occurred very subtly and quietly immediately after the boycott.  Although the principles came up with the idea of the boycott and led up to that point, they lost control after the people realized their political power with the 11/26/2017 election boycott.  Ouru is now a paper president but not a political president because more than half of the country did not vote for him. The NASA principles were confronted with this new people power for the first time on December 12, 2017 when Raila was supposed to be sworn in but he backed off.  The backlash was swift and even Raila was shocked. Raila being a seasoned politician read the mood of the people very quickly but the other three principles did not get the point.  That is also the same time that Miguna and Ndii became the darling of the movement.  It is therefore false that Raila played the other principles, they probably also read the mood of the people but they are cowards and could not cross the Rubicon with the people and were therefore left behind but Raila did.  They only have themselves to blame.  The best example is that on January 30th at 1:00pm when Uhuru park was already filled with NASA supporters, the other three were still trying to persuade Raila not to go to the swearing in ceremony.  Can you imagine what would have happened to NASA if Raila failed to appear? They wanted to destroy Raila politically because that is what would have happened if Raila failed to take the oath. As Miguna correctly put it, "Raila had no choice that day but to take the oath". It took the 2nd liberators years to reach where NASA movement is now and that is why I know they will succeed.  Those who are imagining that 2022 will just be another 2013 or 2017 and can make predictions based on those models are in for a big surprise. 2013 was different from 2017 but 2022 will be much more different.  This movement cannot be wished away.

[RV Pundit]

When did we follow what they say? Their action speaks louder than their words. The rules of the game will remain the same. Kenya will remain a multi-party democracy. That I can assure you. Maybe we will have some more positions like Prime Minister down the lane..but I don't see the 50% of all votes changing.

Who said Raila will be on the ballot.  Regardless of who is going to be on the ballot, the rules of the game is not going to be the same.

[Kichwa]

At least you acknowledge that there will be changes-how much changes?-Its too early to tell but enough changes to make the predictions being made now about the next president highly premature.

When did we follow what they say? Their action speaks louder than their words. The rules of the game will remain the same. Kenya will remain a multi-party democracy. That I can assure you. Maybe we will have some more positions like Prime Minister down the lane..but I don't see the 50% of all votes changing.

Who said Raila will be on the ballot.  Regardless of who is going to be on the ballot, the rules of the game is not going to be the same.

[vooke]

Revising goals

Wrong analysis. At a certain point the movement transformed into a people led movement.  The change occurred very subtly and quietly immediately after the boycott.  Although the principles came up with the idea of the boycott and led up to that point, they lost control after the people realized their political power with the 11/26/2017 election boycott.  Ouru is now a paper president but not a political president because more than half of the country did not vote for him. The NASA principles were confronted with this new people power for the first time on December 12, 2017 when Raila was supposed to be sworn in but he backed off.  The backlash was swift and even Raila was shocked. Raila being a seasoned politician read the mood of the people very quickly but the other three principles did not get the point.  That is also the same time that Miguna and Ndii became the darling of the movement.  It is therefore false that Raila played the other principles, they probably also read the mood of the people but they are cowards and could not cross the Rubicon with the people and were therefore left behind but Raila did.  They only have themselves to blame.  The best example is that on January 30th at 1:00pm when Uhuru park was already filled with NASA supporters, the other three were still trying to persuade Raila not to go to the swearing in ceremony.  Can you imagine what would have happened to NASA if Raila failed to appear? They wanted to destroy Raila politically because that is what would have happened if Raila failed to take the oath. As Miguna correctly put it, "Raila had no choice that day but to take the oath". It took the 2nd liberators years to reach where NASA movement is now and that is why I know they will succeed.  Those who are imagining that 2022 will just be another 2013 or 2017 and can make predictions based on those models are in for a big surprise. 2013 was different from 2017 but 2022 will be much more different.  This movement cannot be wished away.

It obvious Raila biggest head-ache after loosing election was the pesky Kalonzo & MaDVD pressing him to "hand over" his political capital to them. And Raila just pulled a jujitsu move and manage to re-engineer himself. I must give the man kudos. But he is dealing with foolish political type like MaDVD & Kalonzo..who cannot see two moves ahead.

Whatever these 3 musketeers do...they will be seen as cowardly betrayers...never mind that Raila made that happen

Their options....
1) Splinter - each for it's own and try cut their own deal.
2) Remain in NASA - bow to the Engineer Raila -- and stick around Raila - and hope  beat Ruto with less enthusiastic GEMA backing in 2022.
3) Form a coalition - together with likes of Giddy & Mutua.

I would advice them to try No 3 .

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001269507/kalonzo-will-not-take-oath-as-people-s-deputy-president-says-farah-maalim

[Nefertiti]

All this is very true.  The only fly in the cowards' ointment is the fact that the people are not with them.  They will bring just theselves and a few hangers on.  Some coalition, huh?

The 30th marked the end of tribal kingpins in NASA..... the message has een the same in the regions that these cowards hail from... they're finished politically.  The 2022 ticket will be a Joho -Miguna ticket....

  Try Joho-Orengo, MM will self-immolate soon enough.