NASA in Tharaka-Nithi Again

[Omollo]

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NASA campaign trail: NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga arrives in Tharaka-Nithi. #ElectionsKE https://t.co/vcwd4Y5wpr pic.twitter.com/iEWrWDuscL

— NTV Kenya (@ntvkenya) June 16, 2017

[Globalcitizen12]

He needs about 30% in this area.

[Omollo]

[Omollo]

He needs about 30% in this area.

Without rigging and topping up Uhuru's vote, NASA would win without a single vote in Tharaka-Nithi. But this time round the strategy is to deny them any chance to top up. You can't top up if 80% of the country is voting against you. So NASA will campaign deep inside the so called Jubilee territory.

[Omollo]

[Omollo]

[Nefertiti]

NASA is smelling blood in Meru... specifically lack of enthusiasm for Uhuru-Ruto arrangement. Ruto spent days there post-2013 - calculating that Meru sided with Kibaki not Matiba - and ended up with nothing - which Pundit can dispute due to the Jubilee zoning.

[Nefertiti]

Despite backing a Kikuyu, Ruto is unpopular enough in Meru for people to be labeled his project.

[RV Pundit]

You're giving lots of currency to Munya - who is set to be history when he get trounced by Kiraitu. Kiraitu would worry Ruto - but Munya? Who is he - a Kiraitu protege who wrongly thinks he is ready to become PORK

Despite backing a Kikuyu, Ruto is unpopular enough in Meru for people to be labeled his project.

[Nefertiti]

Clockwork... you want Pundit out of the woodwork just suggest Ruto won't become PORK.

You're giving lots of currency to Munya - who is set to be history when he get trounced by Kiraitu. Kiraitu would worry Ruto - but Munya? Who is he - a Kiraitu protege who wrongly thinks he is ready to become PORK

[RV Pundit]

Kiraitu made the wise decision here - and delusional Munya like Isaac Ruto who allowed governorship to get into their heads - are facing a dim future - possibly with EACC  keeping them busy with corruption case.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/duale-helps-kiraitu-raise-more-than-forty-million-for-campaigns/1064-3975404-ypjqpsz/index.html

Clockwork... you want Pundit out of the woodwork just suggest Ruto won't become PORK.

[Nefertiti]

Kiraitu made a gamble... thinking Munya would be a walkover... so he dissolved Mbus and "asked" Munya to switch places. What a moron. What choice did poor Munya have except to fight or join Jubilee and be rigged out? Obviously running for PORK is a ruse so Ameru can face quandary over King Kiraitu and supporting their son to give him 2022 momentum. Munya is no threat to Ruto but has to invent a contest to deal with Kiraitu the project. Someone will be left with egg in the face no doubt - you are quite sure it'll be Munya, am not. It'll depend on how many people swallow the "it's our turn" bait.

Kiraitu made the wise decision here - and delusional Munya like Isaac Ruto who allowed governorship to get into their heads - are facing a dim future - possibly with EACC  keeping them busy with corruption case.
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/politics/duale-helps-kiraitu-raise-more-than-forty-million-for-campaigns/1064-3975404-ypjqpsz/index.html

[RV Pundit]

I think you need to understand MERU tribal arithmetic to understand why Kiraitu simply cannot lose. Kiraitu is Imenti. They are about 50% of Meru county. Imentis immensely benefited Kibaki regime. Imenti south especially is the most developed const in Eastern if not kenya.Kiraitu & Muthaura made that largely possible. Munya became governor thanks to Kiraitu - rumours was he was dating or married to Kiraitus but in any case he had been kiraitu protege at the law firm.

Kiraitu can choose any seat in Meru and just win.

I just don't see how Munya can overcome this.  He comes from smaller Tigania..where also Kilemi Mwiria come from (Kilemi did a lot for education there)...so already he is splitting the vote there. And he hopes he can get Igembe north. In the meantime Kiraitu is taking Igembe south to make it beyond Munya dream.

Kiraitu will win with 60-65%; Munya with  20-30% and Kilemi & Kintoi (from Buuri) with 5-10%.

It won't even be close. It a whitewash. Kiraitu like many senators made miscalculation in 2013 thinking the senate was more prestigious and governor was village mayor. Now Kiraitu wants the big seat. Munya option would have been to maybe switch to senate .

In Embu it the same scenario.. Wambora is comiing back because Lenny Kivuitu in Maendeleo Chap Chap has to figure out how to beat Embus who are 50% plus of Embu county. It's tribal arithmetic stupid. In Tharaka I don't know the full arithmetic...but I bet Chuka's based Muthoni wa something is going to beat current governor.

Kiraitu made a gamble... thinking Munya would be a walkover... so he dissolved Mbus and "asked" Munya to switch places. What a moron. What choice did poor Munya have except to fight or join Jubilee and be rigged out? Obviously running for PORK is a ruse so Ameru can face quandary over King Kiraitu and supporting their son to give him 2022 momentum. Munya is no threat to Ruto but has to invent a contest to deal with Kiraitu the project. Someone will be left with egg in the face no doubt - you are quite sure it'll be Munya, am not. It'll depend on how many people swallow the "it's our turn" bait.

[Nefertiti]

I get the clan math... Munya must fight it. And running for PORK is a good ruse... people want an ogre to slay. I guess the opinion polls are wrong, but at least he will go down with dignity, unlike your suggestion that he should have settled for senator.

Of course, it remains the stuff of comedy how seasoned folks like Kiraitu could imagine the Senate would be anything but a toothless bulldog. They decimated it themselves as MPs after 2010 during implementation... the Abdikadir-led select committee which of course Kiraitu was a key player.

[RV Pundit]

It's only Isaac who realize mid-way what a stupid role the senate was..and he switched to running for governor. Most of our politician were so used to Nairobi - they didn't imagine living and working from remote places. Now they've seen governor is PORK of the county..with lots of power and money.

I get the clan math... Munya must fight it. And running for PORK is a good ruse... people want an ogre to slay. I guess the opinion polls are wrong, but at least he will go down with dignity, unlike your suggestion that he should have settled for senator.

Of course, it remains the stuff of comedy how seasoned folks like Kiraitu could imagine the Senate would be anything but a toothless bulldog. They decimated it themselves as MPs after 2010 during implementation... the Abdikadir-led select committee which of course Kiraitu was a key player.