NASA at 55%

[Omollo]

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[RV Pundit]

Jubilee at 70% claim William Ruto.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit,

Given your revised MOAS with 52% JP, it will be down to the wire. Considering possibly Jubilee has lost registration tyranny as your update will show after KPMG audit. I doubt Jubilee will wind up with 200 MPs; it is more likely next PORK will face a hung parliament.

[RV Pundit]

I am waiting for new numbers. That should pretty tell us all we need to know. Yeah it will close - the gap won't be as wide as 2013 coz of maDVD/luhya uniting - so possibility of violence and dispute is high - but I just don't see Uhuru losing this one.

As for MPs - pretty much I am seeing Jubilee crossing 200  elected mps - they've ran a tight nomination - so most of those elected in the ticket are pretty shoe-in - bar a few.

Pundit,

Given your revised MOAS with 52% JP, it will be down to the wire. Considering possibly Jubilee has lost registration tyranny as your update will show after KPMG audit. I doubt Jubilee will wind up with 200 MPs; it is more likely next PORK will face a hung parliament.

[Pajero]

This will go re run.

[Nefertiti]

I don't get. Typically elected MPs mirror PORK votes... as was the case in 2013. If Jubilee has 52%, that narrow margin, how do they score 200+ MPs?

I am waiting for new numbers. That should pretty tell us all we need to know. Yeah it will close - the gap won't be as wide as 2013 coz of maDVD/luhya uniting - so possibility of violence and dispute is high - but I just don't see Uhuru losing this one.

As for MPs - pretty much I am seeing Jubilee crossing 200  elected mps - they've ran a tight nomination - so most of those elected in the ticket are pretty shoe-in - bar a few.

[RV Pundit]

hehehe. It already a re-run of 2013. Who'll take votes to force a re-run. Maybe abduba dida? There are only two candidates so far.

This will go re run.

[Nefertiti]

Two horse race with no pundamilia means rematch is unlikely.

This will go re run.

[RV Pundit]

200 out 350 mps. That is about 56%. URP+TNA had 160mps. Lot more slip into Kiraitu's Mt Kenya east party, KANU and Independent parties - but seeing how tight Jubilee primaries were - I expect to see few mps in Jubilee stronghold get elected in a different party or as independent candidates.

I don't get. Typically elected MPs mirror PORK votes... as was the case in 2013. If Jubilee has 52%, that narrow margin, how do they score 200+ MPs?

[RV Pundit]

Precisely.Two horse race mean someone has to score 50%. Not unless you've third candidate - taking say 2% - and you end up with 49% versus 49% or something close to that.

The way I see NASA will be beaten and they will demand a re-run by running to supreme court & causing chaos.

Two horse race with no pundamilia means rematch is unlikely.

[Nefertiti]

Ukambani might pee on Raila's party the way things are going. This "raw deal" revolt could be a new factor.

Precisely.Two horse race mean someone has to score 50%. Not unless you've third candidate - taking say 2% - and you end up with 49% versus 49% or something close to that.

The way I see NASA will be beaten and they will demand a re-run by running to supreme court & causing chaos.

[RV Pundit]

Yeap just reading they didn't attend Uhuru park - Machakos definitely is a battle-ground - not least because Mavoko & Kathiani are comsopolitan but because Gov Dr Mutua's is insanely popular and is supporting Uhuru. I see Kitui is also pretty interesting - seen Musila-Nyenze & some mps are still reeling from the betrayal- and the rebels mps who had already joined Jubilee are a tonne.

Kalonzo could be a general without foot soldiers.

Ukambani might pee on Raila's party the way things are going. This "raw deal" revolt could be a new factor.

[Pajero]

Kambas will vote 99% NASA,any other story trash.

[Omollo]

Nyenze is an old Uhuru loyalist. He was sent a few weeks ago to issue an ultimatum when Uhuru was getting worked up by the suspense. He did was called in by Wiper and reprimanded. He pledged never to do it again.

No sooner had the flag bearer been named than he did it again. This time he had enlisted Musila to the press conference. Musila was not aware of the NASA has shortchanged Kambas line and was visibly taken aback when Nyenze deviated from the pre-agreed script to demand a re-run of Kiutu Governor race.

Musila had resigned as the Chairman of WDP and nyenze has no post in the party. His position as Leader of Minority is derived from the CORD (now NASA) alliance. He is a creature of the alliance he is being paid to wreck.

You may note the following:

1. Kambas have never been so united. Ngilu has made peace with Kalonzo and hopes either for support or neutrality in respect of Kitui governor seat
2. Apart from Jubilee Chap Chap, all other outfits have folded either to join Jubilee or NASA. That has left Wiper as the dominant party under kalonzo. I think Jubilee was not aware that they were helping. Contrast this with the multiple outfits that one saw in Ukambani in 2013 with Ngilu and Kalonzo pulling in opposite directions!
3. There is no prominent Kamba in Jubilee since Ngilu was imprisoned and dumped. Kalonzo has the highest offer any Kamba has ghot from the two alliances.

The raw deal thing is an NIS attempt. The idea was to get both Kalonzo and Mudavadi to bolt at the last minute. It has spectacularly failed. I can comfortably tell you that Uhuru Kenyatta is going home.

Ukambani might pee on Raila's party the way things are going. This "raw deal" revolt could be a new factor.

Precisely.Two horse race mean someone has to score 50%. Not unless you've third candidate - taking say 2% - and you end up with 49% versus 49% or something close to that.

The way I see NASA will be beaten and they will demand a re-run by running to supreme court & causing chaos.

[Nefertiti]

Multiple small parties ala 2013 are actually good for the top ballot. All we are saying is:

1. Uhuru will reap some votes from Dr Mutua's and Jubilee-defecting MPs' influence.

2. Disquiet or fallout from betrayal of the 2013 MOU will cause some voter apathy. Nyenze, Musila, Muthama now have beef with Wiper.

Nyenze is an old Uhuru loyalist. He was sent a few weeks ago to issue an ultimatum when Uhuru was getting worked up by the suspense. He did was called in by Wiper and reprimanded. He pledged never to do it again.

No sooner had the flag bearer been named than he did it again. This time he had enlisted Musila to the press conference. Musila was not aware of the NASA has shortchanged Kambas line and was visibly taken aback when Nyenze deviated from the pre-agreed script to demand a re-run of Kiutu Governor race.

Musila had resigned as the Chairman of WDP and nyenze has no post in the party. His position as Leader of Minority is derived from the CORD (now NASA) alliance. He is a creature of the alliance he is being paid to wreck.

You may note the following:

1. Kambas have never been so united. Ngilu has made peace with Kalonzo and hopes either for support or neutrality in respect of Kitui governor seat
2. Apart from Jubilee Chap Chap, all other outfits have folded either to join Jubilee or NASA. That has left Wiper as the dominant party under kalonzo. I think Jubilee was not aware that they were helping. Contrast this with the multiple outfits that one saw in Ukambani in 2013 with Ngilu and Kalonzo pulling in opposite directions!
3. There is no prominent Kamba in Jubilee since Ngilu was imprisoned and dumped. Kalonzo has the highest offer any Kamba has ghot from the two alliances.

The raw deal thing is an NIS attempt. The idea was to get both Kalonzo and Mudavadi to bolt at the last minute. It has spectacularly failed. I can comfortably tell you that Uhuru Kenyatta is going home.

[Omollo]

Their influence is limited. Of course Jubilee will get some votes in NASA strongholds. Even Raila will get a share of the votes in Jubilee zones.

Raila scored 21% of the votes in Uasin Gishu at a time when he was the Devil incarnate who had delivered Ruto to The Hague!

Multiple small parties ala 2013 are actually good for the top ballot. All we are saying is:

1. Uhuru will reap some votes from Dr Mutua's and Jubilee-defecting MPs' influence.

2. Disquiet or fallout from betrayal of the 2013 MOU will cause some voter apathy. Nyenze, Musila, Muthama now have beef with Wiper.

[RV Pundit]

Their influence is limited. Of course Jubilee will get some votes in NASA strongholds. Even Raila will get a share of the votes in Jubilee zones.

Raila scored 21% of the votes in Uasin Gishu at a time when he was the Devil incarnate who had delivered Ruto to The Hague!

Multiple small parties ala 2013 are actually good for the top ballot. All we are saying is:

1. Uhuru will reap some votes from Dr Mutua's and Jubilee-defecting MPs' influence.

2. Disquiet or fallout from betrayal of the 2013 MOU will cause some voter apathy. Nyenze, Musila, Muthama now have beef with Wiper.

luo and luhya plus gusii are sizeable in uasin gishu but rails got 2% of kalenjin. I agree with Robin's..ukambani is interesting...mutual and the rebels who are nearly all wiper MPs will make it hard for rails.machakos looks like battleground already.

[Omollo]

I may be behind news but Muthama is firmly inside NASA and even supported Raila's candidacy to the chagrin of the likes of Nyenze.

Musila has NOT opposed the line-up. Musila is only aggrieved because as the Chairman of WDP he expected a direct ticket and not be subjected to primaries. Instead he was beaten at the primaries but can't understand why the Party can't screw the winner and grant him (Musila) the ticket.

If I go deeper, his loss is not a Wiper affair. Ngilu is responsible. She is running on a NARC ticket. She has considers Malombe an easy opponent as opposed to Musila. With Musila she feared a National Rally in Kitui with the likes of Raila coming over to campaign for him. Malombe won't get that. So she arranged to support Malombe in the primaries to defeat Musila huko chini before he becomes dangerous.

Kalonzo made a pact with Ngilu to stay neutral. He needs the lady's support to seal Kitui. I bet he will not say much about the Musila loss.

Nyenze is an Uhuru man kutoka zamani. He has limited influence in Kitui. It is the same as Jirongo claiming to speak for Luhyas when it us known that he wants money from the deal. Either from Jubilee or NASA.

Incidentally Pro. Wainaina just launched his independent Presidential run today. I wonder if that would lose Jubilee Kikuyu votes?

luo and luhya plus gusii are sizeable in uasin gishu but rails got 2% of kalenjin. I agree with Robin's..ukambani is interesting...mutual and the rebels who are nearly all wiper MPs will make it hard for rails.machakos looks like battleground already.
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I have not checked the %. I have learned to do that when it comes to your figures.