This is Raila's best and last shot at the presidency

[Kichwa]

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I almost thought he was not going to pull it off but he did in the end and not only Kept NASA intact but added IR and clinched the flag bearer position.  That is nothing to sneeze at in the rough and tumble politics of Kenya. Raila has won National elections than he has lost. He  lost the 1997 elections but he won for/with  Kibaki in 2002, he won with the new Kitaba in 2010 and he clearly won in 2007.  I personally believe that there should have been a run-off in 2013 but the court botched it and that is why Willy Mutunga will disappear in history as if he never held the post.  All the supreme court had to do was declare a run-off and step aside.

2017 will answer a lot of questions and will be truly historic elections and I am very excited about it.  I think NASA has a tough job a head but I like their chances.  I was afraid after last elections that the country was going to become a one party state and that competitive democratic presidential elections would be dead.  However, the opposition managed to maintain their coalition and we are entering another presidential elections with a strong opposition party capable of actually defeating the government in Power.  This does not happen too often in most African countries and we must learn to appreciate little things like that.  When asked where will NASA get the money to compete against the government in power, Raila said that, while NASA needs money, it does not need even a half of what Jubilee will spend.  The numbers are out there for NASA, the only challenge they have is to get its stronghold to actually get out and vote. 

[Pajero]

Voter turn out will determine the winner

[Kichwa]

I hope that was the the only challenge.  However, the other challenge is to make sure they are not robbed  through ballot stuffing in Jubilee stronghold. If the elections are largely seen to be free and fair I think Kenyans will be very eager to move on. NASA understands that they have to knock the champion out to get an easy decision.  The mood in the country shows that they can do it. What they need to do is talk more about the future that Kenyans can aspire for if they win. Mention the corruption, the tribalism and the incompetence but do not dwell on it too much. Move on to solutions because Kenyans have agreed that ouruto are run the most corrupt enterprise in the dark continent and there is no need beating it to death.

Voter turn out will determine the winner

[RV Pundit]

Ballot stuffing will happen in each party/coalition strongholds. Luos,Kalenjin and Kikuyus have historically turned out at 85-90% and it practically impossible to improve that. NASA need to work on Western & Ukambani - where people may not share that enthusiasm. The battleground counties are going to be logistically hard to work on it very much the last few months..so I wont depend on votes from northern kenya or part of the coast.The issue that opposition can exploit is to try to depict jubilee as kalenji-kikuyu arrangment - that is bound to work - corruption/incompetence are too abstract for the average kenyan to connect the dots.

NASA begin with disorganized UNJUST nominations - that is big minus now. The base in Nyanza, Luhya,Coast, Ukambani and next Nairobi are still reeling from being robbed by their parties...there has been fairly any single nomination done over board...from Teso North Tharaka nithi like rigging...to each candidate having it's own returning officer declaring them winners..it been comical if not farcical...to one where a candidate wins today but another is issued the certificate.

As for Jubilee - everything seem to be rolling after that big tuju screw up - nomination have largely been free, fair and organized. Bar few places - the winners have beaten the losers so conclusively & overwhelming they've had no resort but to concede defeat. Jubilee is definitely set to become the majority party with nearly 200 mps of parliament.

All Jubilee need to do is make NASA sweat in Ukambani & part of western - and of course pour money and resources in battleground.

I hope that was the the only challenge.  However, the other challenge is to make sure they are not robbed  through ballot stuffing in Jubilee stronghold. If the elections are largely seen to be free and fair I think Kenyans will be very eager to move on. NASA understands that they have to knock the champion out to get an easy decision.  The mood in the country shows that they can do it. What they need to do is talk more about the future that Kenyans can aspire for if they win. Mention the corruption, the tribalism and the incompetence but do not dwell on it too much. Move on to solutions because Kenyans have agreed that ouruto are run the most corrupt enterprise in the dark continent and there is no need beating it to death.

[Pajero]

I think western,ukambani,nyanza are completely under lock.Coast will be the battle ground,it has 1.7 million registered voters and if NASA manages 1.2 of those votes then i think game over for jubilee.

[RV Pundit]

Ukambani is toughest. Kalonzo seem to moving ahead of everyone except Muthama. You've 3 groups out to get kalonzo - Mutua with his maendeleo chapchap is insanely popular in Machakos..you've Jubilee mutambo group..and now there is new disgruntled lot here from Kitui heartland (Nyenze+Musila)...and now let us add Mr Sonko Mbuvi Kioko as another Ukambani man who is very popular...makes 4 headwinds on 3 counties of Ukambani.

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/28/nasa-line-up-raw-deal-for-kambas-we-will-not-play-second-fiddle-nyenze_c1551841

In short Ukambani is signalling big trouble for Raila. Kalonzo & Muthama have to double down but what for?. Kalonzo want Raila to lose again () so he can back him against Ruto in 2022 which he thinks is winnable.

Kalonzo is the trojan horse. If he wasn't; Nyenze would have long shut up.

I think western,ukambani,nyanza are completely under lock.Coast will be the battle ground,it has 1.7 million registered voters and if NASA manages 1.2 of those votes then i think game over for jubilee.

[Kichwa]

Well, Raila can now promise Wakamba the same thing Ouru promised Kalenjins-support me in 2017 and I support Kalonzo in 2022. Incompetence maybe too abstract but corruption is not.  Instead of saying incompetence the Nasa can talk about "bei ya unga " "maisha ni ngumu" "vijana hawana kazi".  I saw a line where a NASA politician said "why are Kenyans being told they have to be educated to get a job" and the crowd went wild.

Ukambani is toughest. Kalonzo seem to moving ahead of everyone except Muthama. You've 3 groups out to get kalonzo - Mutua with his maendeleo chapchap is insanely popular in Machakos..you've Jubilee mutambo group..and now there is new disgruntled lot here from Kitui heartland (Nyenze+Musila)...and now let us add Mr Sonko Mbuvi Kioko as another Ukambani man who is very popular...makes 4 headwinds on 3 counties of Ukambani.

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/04/28/nasa-line-up-raw-deal-for-kambas-we-will-not-play-second-fiddle-nyenze_c1551841

In short Ukambani is signalling big trouble for Raila. Kalonzo & Muthama have to double down but what for?. Kalonzo want Raila to lose again () so he can back him against Ruto in 2022 which he thinks is winnable.

Kalonzo is the trojan horse. If he wasn't; Nyenze would have long shut up.

I think western,ukambani,nyanza are completely under lock.Coast will be the battle ground,it has 1.7 million registered voters and if NASA manages 1.2 of those votes then i think game over for jubilee.

[RV Pundit]

If he is believable; but everyone knows Raila will keep running and running until he drops dead like his father. I mean Bukusu's Wamalwa were first people he trampled upon - some MOU btw Jaramogi & Masinde Muliro. Kalenjin trust Uhuru. They voted for him in 2002. Uhuru was in KANU when everyone in central was in Opposition. He is not knew to Kalenjin leaders. They know he is gentleman who keep is words. So big difference. They don't trust Raila that is why the relationship died before it started in 2008.

Well, Raila can now promise Wakamba the same thing Ouru promised Kalenjins-support me in 2017 and I support Kalonzo in 2022.

[MOON Ki]

I hope that was the the only challenge.  However, the other challenge is to make sure they are not robbed  through ballot stuffing in Jubilee stronghold. If the elections are largely seen to be free and fair I think Kenyans will be very eager to move on. NASA understands that they have to knock the champion out to get an easy decision.  The mood in the country shows that they can do it. What they need to do is talk more about the future that Kenyans can aspire for if they win. Mention the corruption, the tribalism and the incompetence but do not dwell on it too much. Move on to solutions because Kenyans have agreed that ouruto are run the most corrupt enterprise in the dark continent and there is no need beating it to death.

So far, they have shown little interest in that, and I doubt that they really care.   Elections in Kenya are all about getting into an eating position.

[Kichwa]

I know you are biased against anything Raila but I think that was covered in the NASA agreement yesterday.  Based on Raila's age, I think it is very believable that this is his last run. Raila has had an illustrious political career and he does not have to be president to sustain his legacy.

If he is believable; but everyone knows Raila will keep running and running until he drops dead like his father. Kalenjin trust Uhuru. They voted for him in 2002. Uhuru was in KANU when everyone in central was in Opposition. He is not knew to Kalenjin leaders. They know he is gentleman who keep is words. So big difference. They don't trust Raila that is why the relationship died before it started in 2008.

Well, Raila can now promise Wakamba the same thing Ouru promised Kalenjins-support me in 2017 and I support Kalonzo in 2022.

[RV Pundit]

The same agreement as of 2013 . Kalonzo is either dumb or playing dumb. The only difference now is just the name NASA. Raila will do the same in 2022 - introduce new players and new name - 2022 is going to be really mouth watering for opposition who'll fancy their chance against Ruto. Raila never gonna miss such an opportunity.

I know you are biased against anything Raila but I think that was covered in the NASA agreement yesterday.  Based on Raila's age, I think it is very believable that this is his last run. Raila has had an illustrious political career and he does not have to be president to sustain his legacy.

[Kichwa]

If that is the case then I believe they will do whatever it takes to win. I am glad we will have a competitive elections.

I hope that was the the only challenge.  However, the other challenge is to make sure they are not robbed  through ballot stuffing in Jubilee stronghold. If the elections are largely seen to be free and fair I think Kenyans will be very eager to move on. NASA understands that they have to knock the champion out to get an easy decision.  The mood in the country shows that they can do it. What they need to do is talk more about the future that Kenyans can aspire for if they win. Mention the corruption, the tribalism and the incompetence but do not dwell on it too much. Move on to solutions because Kenyans have agreed that ouruto are run the most corrupt enterprise in the dark continent and there is no need beating it to death.

So far, they have shown little interest in that, and I doubt that they really care.   Elections in Kenya are all about getting into an eating position.

[Omollo]

I have to comment on the claim by Pundit that ballot stuffing will take place in all strongholds. This is both shocking and awakening.

Prior to the 2007 rigging I heard Kibaki supporters mentioning this. They amplified it after the elections and made it sound like gospel truth. The NIS managed to get Kriegler to enter that line as a legally binding finding. It was just a lie!

Unless Pundit wants to say NASA will have taken over government in its strongholds and nullified the writ of the national government in those areas, the whole claim must treated with contempt.

NASA would have to get rid of the police, the GSU (who will most likely be pumped in NASA areas) and the NIS. NASA would also have to overpower County Commissioners and the entire provincial administration which remains in tact and has been running Jubilee Party primaries under fully open skies!

We know that the NASA plan to have citizens occupy polling stations after voting has been a subject of intense discussion and the Police and GSU have been instructed to frustrate it. Two weeks or so before elections, Nkaissery will issue an order banning any loitering around polling stations after voting!

So how is this stuffing in opposition areas supposed to take place?

About 90% turnout: It is a well documented fact that turnout above 75% is potentially suspicious.
 

[RV Pundit]

Election is overseen by clerks n presiding officers n agents  locally sourced and in places where presidential candidate enjoy 90% support there is a lot of collusion. I was clerk in 2002 n I manage to rig for kibaki votes by misdirect old kalenjin voters who were looking to tick for moi unaware he wasn't running.Rather embarrassing themselves by looking for help while picking the presidential vote paper they would ask wapi ya moi...and I just show them kibaki..and they cross there.

[RV Pundit]

There is nothing you can do to prevent local collusion unless you have presiding officers who are neutral and really pass ionate agents.The observers I saw were from local churches....with fancy uniform saying they are catholic or ncck observers...so they are in sync in rigging raila in bondo n Uhuru in kiambu

[Omollo]

One of the changes demanded by CORD is that nobody should preside over elections in his or her own home area.

[RV Pundit]

Let us wait if iebc will recruit smarter this way...some shuffling will help prevent such collusion.. at granular level otherwise returning officers are always non locals

One of the changes demanded by CORD is that nobody should preside over elections in his or her own home area.

[Omollo]

Let us wait if iebc will recruit smarter this way...some shuffling will help prevent such collusion.. at granular level otherwise returning officers are always non locals

One of the changes demanded by CORD is that nobody should preside over elections in his or her own home area.

The idea pundit is for the number of votes cast be determined by the Integrated system. If the system recorded 600 people as having voted but there are 700 or even more than the registered voters in that poling station won't it raise alarms?

There is a reason why we insisted on a single polling station not having more than 500 people. I am told Uhuru amended that to allow 700. This is far better than the unlimited number before where an IT geek in TNA could transfer voters from Likuyani to Tharaka Nithi.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

I don't know if it's his best.  But he appears to have locked in the Luhya.  That doesn't happen often.  It last happened 2002 elections.