Isaac Ruto is very eloquent and very funny guy. I love him

[Globalcitizen12]

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[RV Pundit]

He is done politically.kipsigis are not joining nasa

[Omollo]

Really? Somehow whatever you say this time seems to just turn out exactly contrary.

You said the Jubilee constituency is intact, we now have the Kipsigis moving out while Mandago is likely to cause problems in Nandi. We have the Pokots unhappy with Ruto arming their enemies and recruiting them in the police force.

Jubilee set out to harvest from Opposition areas but alas it is NASA that is harvesting from Jubilee areas.

Remember our bet about Laboso. I will pass the money to Veritas who will pass it to you. If you lose and Governor Ruto stays please pay up.

He is done politically.kipsigis are not joining nasa

[RV Pundit]

Isaac is kaput.Ccm is dead.If he beat kipkalyia who gave nyachae 10k votes and does that for NASA hell have outdone himself. NASA won't and can't sell in Rv.

[Nefertiti]

Isaac and the Gideons have nothing to offer considering WSR has PORK in the bag. What more could Kalenjin want?

[Omollo]

Pundit

You know I was in KANU as a strategist. We believed NARC could not get a single vote in Rift Valley. We went further to hallucinate that KANU had locked out NARC from Western. Still some believed they needed Mudavadi to completely seal Western. When I mentioned Kijana Wamalwa I was laughed at. He was Moi's tenant and known to be broke. I told them I had met him in Grand Regency and he seemed quite loaded, dishing out money to FORD K aspirants. They laughed.

Well, they got Mudavadi in through the backdoor and as I have said before, I walked out of the front door to NARC.

KANU lost western and shared the vote in RV with NARC.

Without a burning issue like ICC and hostile propaganda like Mau, I see no issue that would stop Kipsigis or Kalenjins voting for NASA.

Do not ignore the power of euphoria. Kibaki was just an old recycled presidential candidate on his third run. But the coming together of many groups conjured up the unity that every Kenyan seeks to see in the politics of the country. He was elected and could have gone down in history as the greatest president after Mandela had he not retreated from leading the nation to becoming a Kikuyu paramount chief - like Kenyatta. The entire country welcomed him but he rejected those who did not belong to his tribe.

Politics are dynamic.

That said, if NASA allows Jubilee to regain control of the electoral systems, the election will be rigged again. Hopefully NASA will meet Uhuru in private and impress on him that any attempts to rig the elections will result in total chaos. NASA leaders must be willing to die if possible to protect democracy. I do not believe such a warning should be delivered through megaphones.

Isaac is kaput.Ccm is dead.If he beat kipkalyia who gave nyachae 10k votes and does that for NASA hell have outdone himself. NASA won't and can't sell in Rv.

[Omollo]

Look at this stupid attempt to revive ICC. What an idiot. He is going home too.

[Nefertiti]

There is no euphoria in NASA comparable to NARC. WSR has "2022 is our turn" and Isaac has nothing. What will he get in NASA to entice the Kipsigis from Jubilee?

He just adds to NASA "national" PR. No significant numbers. Good for Raila, blunder for Isaac. Politics is brains not ego.

Pundit

You know I was in KANU as a strategist. We believed NARC could not get a single vote in Rift Valley. We went further to hallucinate that KANU had locked out NARC from Western. Still some believed they needed Mudavadi to completely seal Western. When I mentioned Kijana Wamalwa I was laughed at. He was Moi's tenant and known to be broke. I told them I had met him in Grand Regency and he seemed quite loaded, dishing out money to FORD K aspirants. They laughed.

Well, they got Mudavadi in through the backdoor and as I have said before, I walked out of the front door to NARC.

KANU lost western and shared the vote in RV with NARC.

Without a burning issue like ICC and hostile propaganda like Mau, I see no issue that would stop Kipsigis or Kalenjins voting for NASA.

Do not ignore the power of euphoria. Kibaki was just an old recycled presidential candidate on his third run. But the coming together of many groups conjured up the unity that every Kenyan seeks to see in the politics of the country. He was elected and could have gone down in history as the greatest president after Mandela had he not retreated from leading the nation to becoming a Kikuyu paramount chief - like Kenyatta. The entire country welcomed him but he rejected those who did not belong to his tribe.

Politics are dynamic.

That said, if NASA allows Jubilee to regain control of the electoral systems, the election will be rigged again. Hopefully NASA will meet Uhuru in private and impress on him that any attempts to rig the elections will result in total chaos. NASA leaders must be willing to die if possible to protect democracy. I do not believe such a warning should be delivered through megaphones.

[RV Pundit]

Isaac is just hedging his bets with NASA otherwise he's politically well done as far as Bomet governorship. His latest move has basically killed CCM.

[Omollo]

There is no euphoria in NASA comparable to NARC. WSR has "2022 is our turn" and Isaac has nothing. What will he get in NASA to entice the Kipsigis from Jubilee?

He just adds to NASA "national" PR. No significant numbers. Good for Raila, blunder for Isaac. Politics is brains not ego.

The Euphoria in 2002 emerged after Raila stated Kibaki Tosha. So it is early days to rule out a repeat or something close. Robina, Wananchi love unity or the appearance of it. Ruto and Uhuru benefitted from the same in 2013.

Let's be objective:

1. in 2013 Mudavadi scored 400K votes around the country. He was roundly beaten in Western by Raila  - his home region. He just managed to hang on to his native county of Vihiga by a measly 10K votes - all in part because Raila refused / failed to campaign in Vihiga or send his Maragoli wife - something that would have wiped out Mudavadi.

2. The votes he scored would most likely have gone to Raila considering Uhuru - for all the Lusaka's and Musikari Kombos - scored a shameful 66K votes in ALL of Western Province!

3. Had the Mudavadi votes gone to Raila, we would have at least had a runoff. Had Mudavadi joined CORD we would have probably blocked the 66K votes from going to Uhuru and earned a few more in RV and again probably forced a runoff in which Uhuru was bound to lose badly!

Pundit has told us that Jubilee has kept its 2013 votes intact (though that is turning out to be untrue). He added that all Jubilee needs is to hold on to its constituency and add a few thousands. He has been revising the % he expects Jubilee to obtain from 70% to 53%.

If Isaac has left with even 66,000 votes (which is possible considering his appeal in South Rift) he basically undermines the Punditry of Pundit. Jubilee as of now has a deficit of votes from the last election which brings it under 50%.

Jubilee was aiming to get votes in Kisii and Nyamira and poured unlimited funds to get one of the governors to defect. They partially succeeded with Kisii Deputy Governor and a few MPs. However the hostility on the ground and the famous hasira ya Mkisii forced all of them to eat their puke and not only leave but denounce Jubilee. They are left with the Nyachae Family which we are satisfied with since it is the most unpopular family in Kisii at the moment. There is Christ Obure - an old man - who when faced with threats of imprisonment for AngloLeasing approached the party and said he was too old for prison. He is running a lacklustre campaign while helping ODM candidates. It is no secret he wants to avoid jail. So no votes in Kisii.

Lusaka just got a direct ticket from Jubilee along with a few MCAs. The reason is that Bungoma is a straight fight between FORD K and ODM. Nobody wanted to contest against Lusaka because he is going home. No votes in Western and the slogan is #JubileeTawe (Not Jubilee or Never Jubilee)

COAST: I think this time Jubilee will be totally wiped out in all the counties. Shah Baal has zero chance. He got Kamba votes in 2013 for being in Wiper. Those votes will partially go to Joho and whoever WDP nominates. However all will vote for NASA candidate for president.

Jubilee is out of Turkana, thanks to Uhuru's greedy memo to parliament cutting Turkana share from a measly 10% to a piddling 5%!!! Uhuru is a gift that keeps giving NASA.

No votes in Wajir, Garissa and now Marsabit is gravitating to NASA. The rigging of primaries over there is another gift to NASA. We paid a similar price in Migori so we know not to play games.

Frankly I need to know where Jubilee will get these votes!

Uhuru's only hope is to retake the election system and use it to rig. But we already know unlike 2013.

[Nefertiti]

The Euphoria in 2002 emerged after Raila stated Kibaki Tosha. So it is early days to rule out a repeat or something close. Robina, Wananchi love unity or the appearance of it. Ruto and Uhuru benefitted from the same in 2013.

Let's be objective:

1. in 2013 Mudavadi scored 400K votes around the country. He was roundly beaten in Western by Raila  - his home region. He just managed to hang on to his native county of Vihiga by a measly 10K votes - all in part because Raila refused / failed to campaign in Vihiga or send his Maragoli wife - something that would have wiped out Mudavadi.

2. The votes he scored would most likely have gone to Raila considering Uhuru - for all the Lusaka's and Musikari Kombos - scored a shameful 66K votes in ALL of Western Province!

3. Had the Mudavadi votes gone to Raila, we would have at least had a runoff. Had Mudavadi joined CORD we would have probably blocked the 66K votes from going to Uhuru and earned a few more in RV and again probably forced a runoff in which Uhuru was bound to lose badly!

Pundit has told us that Jubilee has kept its 2013 votes intact (though that is turning out to be untrue). He added that all Jubilee needs is to hold on to its constituency and add a few thousands. He has been revising the % he expects Jubilee to obtain from 70% to 53%.

If Isaac has left with even 66,000 votes (which is possible considering his appeal in South Rift) he basically undermines the Punditry of Pundit. Jubilee as of now has a deficit of votes from the last election which brings it under 50%.

Jubilee was aiming to get votes in Kisii and Nyamira and poured unlimited funds to get one of the governors to defect. They partially succeeded with Kisii Deputy Governor and a few MPs. However the hostility on the ground and the famous hasira ya Mkisii forced all of them to eat their puke and not only leave but denounce Jubilee. They are left with the Nyachae Family which we are satisfied with since it is the most unpopular family in Kisii at the moment. There is Christ Obure - an old man - who when faced with threats of imprisonment for AngloLeasing approached the party and said he was too old for prison. He is running a lacklustre campaign while helping ODM candidates. It is no secret he wants to avoid jail. So no votes in Kisii.

Lusaka just got a direct ticket from Jubilee along with a few MCAs. The reason is that Bungoma is a straight fight between FORD K and ODM. Nobody wanted to contest against Lusaka because he is going home. No votes in Western and the slogan is #JubileeTawe (Not Jubilee or Never Jubilee)

COAST: I think this time Jubilee will be totally wiped out in all the counties. Shah Baal has zero chance. He got Kamba votes in 2013 for being in Wiper. Those votes will partially go to Joho and whoever WDP nominates. However all will vote for NASA candidate for president.

Jubilee is out of Turkana, thanks to Uhuru's greedy memo to parliament cutting Turkana share from a measly 10% to a piddling 5%!!! Uhuru is a gift that keeps giving NASA.

No votes in Wajir, Garissa and now Marsabit is gravitating to NASA. The rigging of primaries over there is another gift to NASA. We paid a similar price in Migori so we know not to play games.

Frankly I need to know where Jubilee will get these votes!

Uhuru's only hope is to retake the election system and use it to rig. But we already know unlike 2013.

Details, details. Euphoria...

2002 was a vote against Moi's Project Uhuru. It was the reason for the "mashetani" charade that Uhuruto put up in 2012. To avoid being labeled a Kibaki project.

2013 Hague was the issue that drove record turnout in RV and Gema. This and the registration "tyranny of numbers" that caught CORD napping.

2017 There is nothing to drive the turnout. This lack of Hague euphoria and registration turnout advantage has seen Jubilee lose its edge. Incumbency is a double-edged sword: There is cash and other resources to campaign, organize, buy MPs, rig opinion polls, etc. The con is being blamed for drought, corruption, insecurity, etc and the incumbent cannot whine about imaginary grievances like Mau evictions. The opposition plays underdog poking holes in the big, bad, unaccountable State. We see Ruto struggling to explain to poor, jobless, starving folks how Jubilee has built railway in Nairobi. Ooh tumeunganisha stima... Who cares!

My take: Jubilee has kept its base while NASA rounds up Western. But Jubilee has lost both in voter registration and the messaging. Raila is igniting the spark with "NASA Pentagon". Without ballot stuffing Uhuru's goose may be cooked.

I am waiting to see how Pundit's MOAS look with new IEBC numbers.

[gout]

What IF the Isaac guy picks the lottery as NASA flag bearer? Like Isaac Tosha?

[Omollo]

Well, now its people voting against a corrupt regime. Follow what is going on in Jubilee primaries ujionee.

 You should have watched Isaac Ruto gloating during the one PM news. I believe every person watching laughed the lungs sick!

Watch here

Jubilee may repeat some of the nominations and recover. But from experience this kind of thing is hard for a party to emerge from it 100% cured. Kibaki faced issues with PNU while ODM managed pretty well. He lost (2007) and had to steal.

2013 - CORD had shambolic nominations. Though it recovered but it provided the excuse for Isaac Hassan to rig in Uhuru.

Details, details. Euphoria...

2002 was a vote against Moi's Project Uhuru. It was the reason for the "mashetani" charade that Uhuruto put up in 2012. To avoid being labeled a Kibaki project.

2013 Hague was the issue that drove record turnout in RV and Gema. This and the registration "tyranny of numbers" that caught CORD napping.

2017 There is nothing to drive the turnout. This lack of Hague euphoria and registration turnout advantage has seen Jubilee lose its edge. Incumbency is a double-edged sword: There is cash and other resources to campaign, organize, buy MPs, rig opinion polls, etc. The con is being blamed for drought, corruption, insecurity, etc and the incumbent cannot whine about imaginary grievances like Mau evictions. The opposition plays underdog poking holes in the big, bad, unaccountable State. We see Ruto struggling to explain to poor, jobless, starving folks how Jubilee has built railway in Nairobi. Ooh tumeunganisha stima... Who cares!

My take: Jubilee has kept its base while NASA rounds up Western. But Jubilee has lost both in voter registration and the messaging. Raila is igniting the spark with "NASA Pentagon". Without ballot stuffing Uhuru's goose may be cooked.

I am waiting to see how Pundit's MOAS look with new IEBC numbers.

[Omollo]

What IF the Isaac guy picks the lottery as NASA flag bearer? Like Isaac Tosha?

yote yawezekana. I trust him to deliver on the tough changes needed unlike Mudavadi