Registration come to closes with Jubilee expected to win again

[RV Pundit]

• Tweet

I see analyst are trying to stick to 2013 scenario obliviously of Jubilee (Ruto mainly) wor
http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Jubilee--Nasa-in-neck-neck-duel-/1056-3822656-10q2op2/index.html

[Pajero]

This will go to the wire,whoever wins the swing votes carries the day.

[RV Pundit]

if nasa stays united - it will be close - but Uhuru still wins by 53% to 47%.

This will go to the wire,whoever wins the swing votes carries the day.

This will go to the wire,whoever wins the swing votes carries the day.

[Omollo]

People like to see what they want to see. In 2013 Raila got 104,000 votes in Nakuru. He also got 60k plus in Uasin Gishu. At the same time Uhuru got less than 67K votes in ALL of Western Province.

[RV Pundit]

That is rubbish moas. there are many battlegrounds in both list. Stronghold would be the place the party is assured of 80-90% of the total votes. For Jubilee - I'd go for Baringo,Bomet,Kericho,Nandi,UasinGishu,Nakuru,Laikipia,Elgeyo Marakwet,West Pokot,Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kirinyanga, Nyandarua,Kiambu,Muranga and Nyeri(18).
CORD have fewer - Kisumu, Siaya,Homabay, Migori, Vihiga, Busia,Bungoma, Kakamega, Machakos (big ?), Kitui and lastly Makueni (11 counties).

The rest are battle ground where cord and jubilee will square in near 50-50 contest.

Jubilee has huge head start because it assured of 18 counties..while CORD start with 11 counties (4 in Luo, 4 in Western & 3 Ukambani)...that are going to vote 90% for each party.

When I sit down and get more detailed breakdown I'll come with rough MOAS.

People like to see what they want to see. In 2013 Raila got 104,000 votes in Nakuru. He also got 60k plus in Uasin Gishu. At the same time Uhuru got less than 67K votes in ALL of Western Province.

[Omollo]

I look forward to your moas. Just remember to deliver something based on verifiable facts. In other words something which if any other person uses the same process and figures would arrive at the same result.

[Kichwa]

 MOAS is just an educated guess and not a substitute for campaigns and the actual voting.  We do not need to debate it or duel on it that much.  We already know that the country is divided almost equally  and that the swing votes will make the difference.  Both parties know exactly where the swing voters are and must figure out how to get them. We will not know how good they will do until after the votes are counted.  Ouru has the incumbency edge but NASA also has an edge on the issue of corruption, tribalism, mismanagement of the economy, unemployment and high cost of living. All this assuming free and fair elections. 

I look forward to your moas. Just remember to deliver something based on verifiable facts. In other words something which if any other person uses the same process and figures would arrive at the same result.