Foreign Policy in trump era - China confrontation

[Globalcitizen12]

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it is seems Papa trump was not kidding but will directly confront China. Anyone who has an insight on how China may, should, will react, can, cannot, could, or what leverage do they have, and will trump win..

Could Trump push china too far that it splits like Russia. I think China politically is in a very delicate place.. The Ruling Cabal there knows it is a matter of time before the new minted middle class agitates for better governance and more representation.

 Right now there are two camps fighting a vicious bloody high stakes game in China.. Revolutionaries "MAIoists" BO LI camp and "reformers" who want to go away from socialism into a more representative system coupled with economic reforms ..Current Premier is winning the reforms battle and he is about to crown himself the biggest honor an equivalency of Mao title.

Now enter the BULL in China shop (pun intended) and he starts currency, trade and military campaign against the regime.. what happens? Could Trump madness be a decoy for China to leave Tiawan the heck alone

 isn't Trump undermining current USA administration  even before he is sworn..

Drama  DRAMA and from where i am sitting I am enjoying it.. until something goes terribly wrong and i will be under bed hiding.. Heros are the ones dead for all others we live because we fear death

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-tweets-complaints-about-chinese-economic-and-military-policy_us_5844e82ce4b0c68e0481887a

[MOON Ki]

it is seems Papa trump was not kidding but will directly confront China. Anyone who has an insight on how China may, should, will react, can, cannot, could, or what leverage do they have, and will trump win..

Could Trump push china too far that it splits like Russia. I think China politically is in a very delicate place.. The Ruling Cabal there knows it is a matter of time before the new minted middle class agitates for better governance and more representation.

 Right now there are two camps fighting a vicious bloody high stakes game in China.. Revolutionaries "MAIoists" BO LI camp and "reformers" who want to go away from socialism into a more representative system coupled with economic reforms ..Current Premier is winning the reforms battle and he is about to crown himself the biggest honor an equivalency of Mao title.

Now enter the BULL in China shop (pun intended) and he starts currency, trade and military campaign against the regime.. what happens? Could Trump madness be a decoy for China to leave Tiawan the heck alone

 isn't Trump undermining current USA administration  even before he is sworn..

Drama  DRAMA and from where i am sitting I am enjoying it.. until something goes terribly wrong and i will be under bed hiding.. Heros are the ones dead for all others we live because we fear death

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-tweets-complaints-about-chinese-economic-and-military-policy_us_5844e82ce4b0c68e0481887a

I regularly spend time in China---about 3 months in a year---and have seen little evidence of red.   As far as I can tell, Xi and his buddies are firmly in control, with the population thoroughly cowed.   

As for Trump, many of his ideas---on tariffs, currency, etc.---are unlikely to go far, and he probably knows that.     But he may be onto something, especially with increasing Chinese transgressions around the South China Sea: my guess is that the Chinese leadership is more likely to be mindful of a muscular approach and expressions of hard power.

[Globalcitizen12]

Xi is in firm control but the element of suprise in societies like this exist.. I wouldn't expect the guys being hunted and hanged on trumped (lo) charges be ready to talk.. Although this is the longest china may have gone without internal insurgency.. Even during Moi everything was underground until oligarchs like Matiba realized they would be next on the chopping block and went for the sucker punch..You can tell there is a lot of capital flight out China into West ..Canada and lately NY NY housing market..

[MOON Ki]

Xi is in firm control but the element of suprise in societies like this exist.. I wouldn't expect the guys being hunted and hanged on trumped (lo) charges be ready to talk.. Although this is the longest china may have gone without internal insurgency.. Even during Moi everything was underground until oligarchs like Matiba realized they would be next on the chopping block and went for the sucker punch..You can tell there is a lot of capital flight out China into West ..Canada and lately NY NY housing market..

Perhaps.   But I can't imagine where it's going to come from.   

True, but that depends on what one makes of it, and the picture is not entirely clear.   You can find all sorts of explanations out there, some contradictory, but one I would stay away from is any idea that the Chinese masses are somehow unhappy with their lot and are seeking to check out.  Consider this:

"We were never really big fans of that capital outflow story because as far as we could tell a lot of it was just exporters keeping their money offshore instead of repatriating it," Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at S&P Global Ratings, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. "That shows up as a capital outflow in the balance of payments."

Gruenwald also expected Chinese companies paying off offshore debt was a driver of outflows.

"We had Chinese firms doing essentially liability management. They were paying down their overseas loans and re-contracting onshore in Chinese yuan. That also counts as a capital outflow,"

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/04/china-economy-news-capital-outflows-driven-by-residents-goldman-sachs-says.html

In addition, there are Chinese companies investing overseas and foreign companies in China repatriating their profits.

As for investments in real estate, it's been mostly a few rich Chinese buying and flipping to other rich Chinese.   It's been a disaster in places like Vancouver, with a lot of property unoccupied while housing prices are driven up for the locals.   Vancouver has finally taken some action---hit them with a 15% tax---and Toronto is likely to follow.   Looks like they are headed south with their unproductive flipping: http://business.financialpost.com/news/why-pay-more-for-the-same-thing-vancouver-tax-pushes-chinese-buyers-to-1m-seattle-homes

[Globalcitizen12]

isn't Xi crackdown too making some of these families sending money abroad.. as a hedging against the purge. I know I saw what they are doing in Vancouver and now NY NY they are re gentrifying .. I've seen this too happen in small college towns as Asia Money create a boom.. I know a private school where i am that has a lot of these students and they are spending and buying property .. driving prices high..

[MOON Ki]

isn't Xi crackdown too making some of these families sending money abroad.. as a hedging against the purge. I know I saw what they are doing in Vancouver and now NY NY they are re gentrifying .. I've seen this too happen in small college towns as Asia Money create a boom.. I know a private school where i am that has a lot of these students and they are spending and buying property .. driving prices high..

That might be true for a very small number who have acquired their riches through corruption, and that type have been very busy in places like Vancouver.  They could get their heads shot or get locked up for life at any time.  Any normal person would want a hedge against that.

There are also "regular" Chinese who want to move to the West for pretty much the same reasons that your "regular" African or whomever wants to do the same, with the addition that in China they have the over-crowding and heavy pollution in cities.   In the case of the Chinese, with a single child and firm belief in education, there is also the tendency to go quite far, e.g. buy a place for the kid to stay while getting the Western education.    And so on.

Is a coming "purge" some sort of a worry?   I really don't see that.   Anecdotal evidence is not "proof", but the impression I get from most Chinese is a belief that a country like theirs needs a firm hand, of the sort that Xi provides.   One needs to look carefully at the targets of Xi's "crackdown".

[Globalcitizen12]

Agreed, what I was wonder is if Trump not going to upset this planned pathway to reforms by XI.. Could trump belligerence allow the Pro-Mao (those direct descendants of Mao inner circle) take on XI instead of retreating and hoping they do not become victims of the purge. I know the vast majority of Chinese want XI to cleanup corruption and do something about pollution.  I think the communist Congress realizes the need to hasten governance reforms.. but we have never seen a transition of such a behemoth like China from authoritarian to capitalism to good governance

[MOON Ki]

Agreed, what I was wonder is if Trump not going to upset this planned pathway to reforms by XI.. Could trump belligerence allow the Pro-Mao (those direct descendants of Mao inner circle) take on XI instead of retreating and hoping they do not become victims of the purge. I know the vast majority of Chinese want XI to cleanup corruption and do something about pollution.  I think the communist Congress realizes the need to hasten governance reforms.. but we have never seen a transition of such a behemoth like China from authoritarian to capitalism to good governance

Anything is possible, but I don't see how.   Again, my personal impressions, rather that "solid evidence":

- I doubt that much of the current Chinese generation (say, under 40) really cares a great deal for Mao and "communism"---within a single generation, they have seen the benefits of "capitalism".   As far as I can tell, this lot largely sees Mao as a very important, but "gone by" figure, and the "Neo/Post Maoists" as a misguided fringe element.

- But Mao and "communism" are still very important at the highest levels of politics, as a useful "cover", and Xi understands that perfectly.  He will use whatever names and quotations he "needs" to:

https://www.ft.com/content/63a5a9b2-85cd-11e6-8897-2359a58ac7a5

Anyways ... we have strayed quite a bit from Mr. "Grab 'em by the pussy".    I'm all for a tough approach with China.  In fact, much as I detest the man and his basket of deplorables and most of what they stand for, he might actually do Africa some good: All these African "leaders" who have lately been going around with "we are independent, sovereign, and equal and have no use with neo-colonialism and imperialism (except for the freebies)" could do with a "fuck you too, now fend for yourself".   Time to grow up.

[Globalcitizen12]

Mr Grab them is a piece of work. He is already interfering "with the invisible hand" gods.. Yesterday he drove Boieng stock down by tweeting about a contract that does not exist.. He said something wont pay ..He needs to start interfering with congress Pork Barrels and he will given an impeachment wedge before he monica any bimbo