kenya GDP rebasing repurcassions

[RVtitem]

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http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/news/No-deal-with-EU-as-Tanzania--Uganda-refuse-to-sign-up/-/2558/3297270/-/item/1/-/aolgdy/-/index.html

[RVtitem]

www.standardmedia.co.ke/m/article/2000208099/blow-for-flower-exporters-as-dar-stabs-kenya-where-it-hurts-most

[RVtitem]

Kenya and kenya media is being arrogant here. Tanzania seem to have legitimate reasons to back off from these lopsided agreements.

It also appears kenya doesn't have any industries to protect...apart from flower, vegetable, and fruit raw material supplies

[RVtitem]

www.standardmedia.co.ke/m/article/2000208771/kenya-is-doomed-either-way-the-european-union-trade-deal-goes

[MOON Ki]

Kenya and kenya media is being arrogant here. Tanzania seem to have legitimate reasons to back off from these lopsided agreements.

Indeed.  The article at the link above opens with:

How Kenya has been back-stabbed is never made clear in the article.  That other EAC countries have their own economic interests does not even come into the picture; it is all about Kenya, and what matters in the deal is what Kenya gets out of it.    We also have a "senior government official, who asked not to be named" telling us that

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Kenya and kenya media is being arrogant here. Tanzania seem to have legitimate reasons to back off from these lopsided agreements.

Indeed.  The article at the link above opens with:

How Kenya has been back-stabbed is never made clear in the article.  That other EAC countries have their own economic interests does not even come into the picture; it is all about Kenya, and what matters in the deal is what Kenya gets out of it.    We also have a "senior government official, who asked not to be named" telling us that

This just goes to what I mention elsewhere.  The puzzle of why East Africa still operates like different economic entities.  Kenya this, Tz that, Ug there....

[Georgesoros]

Kenya and kenya media is being arrogant here. Tanzania seem to have legitimate reasons to back off from these lopsided agreements.

It also appears kenya doesn't have any industries to protect...apart from flower, vegetable, and fruit raw material supplies

Agriculture is an industry by iteslf. Properly managed it can be a Switzerland.
If Kenyans stopped stealing there is enough money to go around for everyone, but Waigurus have it.

[RV Pundit]

But there are positive of re-basing: for example we can now borrow more and cheaply compared to TZ.

[RVtitem]

Yes, there maybe advantages to rebasing. However, losing those billions might impare kenyas ability to repay debt, hence higher cost of borrowing for government.

Also there's need to do some projections backed by data to see possible effect of signing the deal...and maybe release it for public to digest.

Giving europeans free entry into local market does not seem like a good idea for a developing country. Even if it's for capitalism sake.

[RV Pundit]

I don't understand the hulabaloo about EU/Europe. We don't import or export a lot there. This for me is hangover of by-gone era. Our biggest trading partners are the likes of India and China. Apart from horticulture sector I think we have really well diversified market for other products we export. If EU impose rules that make horticulture trade unfair - the likes of Dubai are ever ready to eat their lunch.

Why do we want to forever trade from a position of "weakness" - we want to be able to compete on our merit- not going thro "Least Developed Country" panya route. If our economy is now classified as lower middle income - then we should be able to compete better than Low Income country!

We should be looking into attracting FDIS from EU companies thanks to our new status....rather than wishing we could continue being a basket case like TZ -forever seeking to be treated with kids glove, have loan forgiven and etc.

This is akin to beggar who has gotten off the street and live a little dignified live working hard regretting the free loading days. Kenya can use it new status to borrow more, to borrow at less rate, to attract more FDIS, to invest more and compete better.

Yes, there maybe advantages to rebasing. However, losing those billions might impare kenyas ability to repay debt, hence higher cost of borrowing for government.

Also there's need to do some projections backed by data to see possible effect of signing the deal...and maybe release it for public to digest.

Giving europeans free entry into local market does not seem like a good idea for a developing country. Even if it's for capitalism sake.

[Nefertiti]

http://mobile.nation.co.ke/news/Forum-to-discuss-ways-to-improve-economy/-/1950946/3297656/-/item/1/-/1y9dv4/-/index.html

With an annual investment of Sh390 trillion required by developing countries to meet development objectives in the 2030 agenda, Unctad14 will examine how the private sector can fund the Sh250 trillion gap the countries have after public investments and global aid.

From UN Nairobi conference... sounds incredible and hopeless. Am I wrong somebody?

[MOON Ki]

I don't understand the hulabaloo about EU/Europe. We don't import or export a lot there. This for me is hangover of by-gone era. Our biggest trading partners are the likes of India and China.

That's an interesting view.  One hopes that Kenyan exporters don't see it that way, and that they  take into account the reality of the facts, because for them the "bygone era" has not quite gone by. 

From 2015 KNBS data:

- By regions, Europe is the 2nd largest destination for Kenyan  exports, after Africa.

- By country,  India and China are nowhere near the top 10 as export destinations.  The Netherlands alone takes more far from Kenya than those two combined.

- Even a wreck of a country like Afghanistan appears to take more from Kenya than either India or China does.

If importing and running huge trade deficits in favor of other countries is a good thing,  then, yes, we are certainly doing well with India and China. 

As for anyone's lunch getting eaten in this one, that could happen; but my guess is that it won't be the European's
  (Who's already howling?) We'll have to wait and see.

[RV Pundit]

Here comes moonki taking everything out context.The so called EU trade is just to Britain and Netherland.Britain is mainly small time tea and Netherlands is flowers n horticulture to an auction where goods are probsly destined to Japan or Us.A middleman now competing with Dubai.Conclusion we export very little with EU n if Holland feel sweet Dubai auction is evrry ready to replace them

[MOON Ki]

Here comes moonki taking everything out context.The so called EU trade is just to Britain and Netherland.Britain is mainly small time tea and Netherlands is flowers n horticulture to an auction where goods are probsly destined to Japan or Us.A middleman now competing with Dubai.Conclusion we export very little with EU n if Holland feel sweet Dubai auction is evrry ready to replace them

Out of context, eh? He, he, ... I think all can see the statement you made and the corresponding response. By the way, the "small time" tea and flowers are two of Kenya's biggest exports. Right at the very top. On the  conclusion: better tell that one to KNBS and all others who keep track of such things.

[Empedocles]

Out of context, eh? He, he, ... I think all can see the statement you made and the corresponding response. By the way, the "small time" tea and flowers are two of Kenya's biggest exports. Right at the very top. On the  conclusion: better tell that one to KNBS and all others who keep track of such things.

Err, I think RV is correct. The biggest export market for Kenyan Tea is Pakistan and India(?). The UK is somewhere further down.

[MOON Ki]

Out of context, eh? He, he, ... I think all can see the statement you made and the corresponding response. By the way, the "small time" tea and flowers are two of Kenya's biggest exports. Right at the very top. On the  conclusion: better tell that one to KNBS and all others who keep track of such things.

Err, I think RV is correct. The biggest export market for Kenyan Tea is Pakistan and India(?). The UK is somewhere further down.

Please go back to the original statement I was responding to and the response I gave. Also review RV's "conclusion", which repeats an earlier claim.

RV is right that we export little to Europe? Really? Look at the data.  My statements are based on detailed KNBS data. People are, of course,  free to argue otherwise, but it then behooves them to point us to better data sources.

My original comments on the size of exports markets were not limited to particular products.  Either of the UK and the Netherlands import way more from Kenya than India and China combined. I don't see how "Britain is mainly small time tea", even if true, changes that.

When I say that tea and flowers are Kenya's leading exports, I mean in total, not for any specific destination.  In any case, the amount of tea imported by the UK is hardly "small time"; the UK is one of the leading buyers of Kenyan Tea.

India does not import that much tea from Kenya.  Even Afghanistan imports way more.

[RV Pundit]

Here we go with our google "fact checker". We have heard this EPA or whatever noise for EU unfair trade but when you examine closely; you come to two conclusion of this "big" EU trade.

1) We only export tea to Uk - okay UK tea companies (uniliver) export tea to their countries - a small portion of our black tea - 80% of it is destined to Arab world,Afgan and Pakistani. Now Britain are out of EU....so this is out of equation.

2) We the export flowers and other horticultural products to Netherlands - who then re-export to rest of the world. It a auction that we can easily by-pass through Dubai or direct export.

So big deal...this EU nonsense that NGOs shout about day in day out..is plain old nonsense.

If we want to be serious about trading...let talk Africa (east africa),Middle East, India and China.

This remind us of 2013 when Moonki and his fellow western world arse kisser were predict doom post jubilee just because Britain buy 15% of our export tea (about the same quantity as tea we consumed internally) and some flowers & vegetables to an auction in netherland.

Come on....talk about serious stuff...EU/Kenya trade is nonsense.

We need to refocus on the two big guys...on PPP..China and India are no 1 & 2...and we have good trading partnership that we need to build on. I was reading today that majority of tourist now visiting maasai mara are Indians and Chinese.

EU is the past like our google "fact checker". China and India - plus of course Africa - is where we need to FOCUS.

Please go back to the original statement I was responding to and the response I gave. Also review RV's "conclusion", which repeats an earlier claim.

RV is right that we export little to Europe? Really? Look at the data.  My statements are based on detailed KNBS data. People are, of course,  free to argue otherwise, but it then behooves them to point us to better data sources.

My original comments on the size of exports markets were not limited to particular products.  Either of the UK and the Netherlands import way more from Kenya than India and China combined. I don't see how "Britain is mainly small time tea", even if true, changes that.

When I say that tea and flowers are Kenya's leading exports, I mean in total, not for any specific destination.  In any case, the amount of tea imported by the UK is hardly "small time"; the UK is one of the leading buyers of Kenyan Tea.

India does not import that much tea from Kenya.  Even Afghanistan imports way more.

[Empedocles]

Here we go with our google "fact checker". We have heard this EPA or whatever noise for EU unfair trade but when you examine closely; you come to two conclusion of this "big" EU trade.

1) We only export tea to Uk - okay UK tea companies (uniliver) export tea to their countries - a small portion of our black tea - 80% of it is destined to Arab world,Afgan and Pakistani. Now Britain are out of EU....so this is out of equation.

2) We the export flowers and other horticultural products to Netherlands - who then re-export to rest of the world. It a auction that we can easily by-pass through Dubai or direct export.

So big deal...this EU nonsense that NGOs shout about day in day out..is plain old nonsense.

If we want to be serious about trading...let talk Africa (east africa),Middle East, India and China.

This remind us of 2013 when Moonki and his fellow western world arse kisser were predict doom post jubilee just because Britain buy 15% of our export tea (about the same quantity as tea we consumed internally) and some flowers & vegetables to an auction in netherland.

Come on....talk about serious stuff...EU/Kenya trade is nonsense.

We need to refocus on the two big guys...on PPP..China and India are no 1 & 2...and we have good trading partnership that we need to build on. I was reading today that majority of tourist now visiting maasai mara are Indians and Chinese.

EU is the past like our google "fact checker". China and India - plus of course Africa - is where we need to FOCUS.

Please go back to the original statement I was responding to and the response I gave. Also review RV's "conclusion", which repeats an earlier claim.

RV is right that we export little to Europe? Really? Look at the data.  My statements are based on detailed KNBS data. People are, of course,  free to argue otherwise, but it then behooves them to point us to better data sources.

My original comments on the size of exports markets were not limited to particular products.  Either of the UK and the Netherlands import way more from Kenya than India and China combined. I don't see how "Britain is mainly small time tea", even if true, changes that.

When I say that tea and flowers are Kenya's leading exports, I mean in total, not for any specific destination.  In any case, the amount of tea imported by the UK is hardly "small time"; the UK is one of the leading buyers of Kenyan Tea.

India does not import that much tea from Kenya.  Even Afghanistan imports way more.

RV, please be civil when putting your arguments across.

[RV Pundit]

Sorry! sometime it frustrating when you have to breakdown stuff  for some of the folks here to grasp.

RV, please be civil when putting your arguments across.

[MOON Ki]

If we want to be serious about trading...let talk Africa (east africa),Middle East, India and China.  This remind us of 2013 when Moonki and his fellow western world arse kisser were predict doom post jubilee just because

I can't comment on any "predictions" made by my "fellow western world arse kisser", since he/she has not been identified.    But can you give us (e.g. via links to some written stuff) the where-when-what specifics of Moon Ki's predictions? Then (a) we would know how we are reminded and in fact be better reminded, and (b) Moon Ki could comment.

So big deal...this EU nonsense that NGOs shout about day in day out..is plain old nonsense.
...
Come on....talk about serious stuff...EU/Kenya trade is nonsense.

Perhaps it is all nonsense.  And perhaps not.   I really don't know.   I'll leave that one to all those (e.g. Kenyan flower producers) who are so worked up about it.   I'm sure many of them will be relieved to learn that it is not serious stuff.