Kenya's population is as big asTanzania???

[Georgesoros]

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Need to stop breeding like rabbits
A great analysis by Bloomberg
Ghana will do very well with a low population.

http://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/bric-economies-turning-ugly-consider-africas-cutes/
Shocking

[RV Pundit]

It takes generations to change people perceptions and understanding of things like population control. In kenya I think apart from northern kenya (turkana all the way to lamu) where there is a baby boom; generally there is uptake of birth control. Nairobi & Central are pretty impressive...with people now on average having 2-3 kids.

But I agree..gov need to make contraceptive as cheap (free) and available..abortion safe and available..and more campaign for vasectomy & population control.

Need to stop breeding like rabbits
A great analysis by Bloomberg
Ghana will do very well with a low population.

http://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/bric-economies-turning-ugly-consider-africas-cutes/
Shocking

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

China is shifting low skilled manufacturing offshore.  And this is not going to Africa.  Africa is the source of a lot(probably a lion's share) of the raw materials that these industries rely on.  That is what stands out to me in that article.

[Simanova]

This has gone rather fast. Methinks it has already overtaken TZ. You can still walk leisurely on the streets of Dar or any city over there. It is impossible to attempt it in Kenya.,

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

This has gone rather fast. Methinks it has already overtaken TZ. You can still walk leisurely on the streets of Dar or any city over there. It is impossible to attempt it in Kenya.,

But there are huge swaths of Kenya where you can go forever without encountering homo sapiens.  Hard to say without reliable census.  Tz also has those, but it's bigger than Nigeria.

[yulemsee]

This has gone rather fast. Methinks it has already overtaken TZ. You can still walk leisurely on the streets of Dar or any city over there. It is impossible to attempt it in Kenya.,

Hahahahahahaha, I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Tanzania has 4million more souls than Kenya, maybe your perception is due to the reason Kenyas population is concerntrated along the Mombasa Malaba corridor and there are huge swathes in North Kenya that are virtually not populated.
Then on population Tanzania is outgrowing us, so the difference in population will keep increasing. And finally Dar wa Salaam is currently more populous than Nairobi and its population is growing faster than Nairobi, the UN estimates that by 2050 Dar will be a Mega city, with over 20million guys.

[Simanova]

I actually believe Kenya has a larger population.

Let us go step by step. What is the population of NEP.

Could you include Somalians who have lived here lawfully for 7 years and qualify for citizenship? How about their kids born in Kenya and have the same rights as Jomo Uhuru?

Hahahahahahaha, I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Tanzania has 4million more souls than Kenya, maybe your perception is due to the reason Kenyas population is concentrated along the Mombasa Malaba corridor and there are huge swathes in North Kenya that are virtually not populated.

Then on population Tanzania is outgrowing us, so the difference in population will keep increasing. And finally Dar wa Salaam is currently more populous than Nairobi and its population is growing faster than Nairobi, the UN estimates that by 2050 Dar will be a Mega city, with over 20million guys.

[MOON Ki]

China is shifting low skilled manufacturing offshore.  And this is not going to Africa.  Africa is the source of a lot(probably a lion's share) of the raw materials that these industries rely on.  That is what stands out to me in that article.

We are busy sending stuff over for "value-adding" ... and then later paying through the nose for cheap junk.    And, of course, we are very grateful for all the "help" we are getting ... without strings attached, but with insurance rates on loans exceeding the interest rates on those loans.    Building Great & Huge Infrastructure for Visions.   This, surely, puts us ahead of the tinker-toy Asian countries that are picking up on the manufacturing that you mention.

[RV Pundit]

There is a lot that is required to be done before low cost manufacturing can come here. Reliable infrastructure is definitely a good start. That is cheap and reliable power, tranport and communication. Africa is starting to tick most of the boxes...and it just a matter of time before manufacturing come here.

China is shifting low skilled manufacturing offshore.  And this is not going to Africa.  Africa is the source of a lot(probably a lion's share) of the raw materials that these industries rely on.  That is what stands out to me in that article.

[Empedocles]

There is a lot that is required to be done before low cost manufacturing can come here. Reliable infrastructure is definitely a good start. That is cheap and reliable power, tranport and communication. Africa is starting to tick most of the boxes...and it just a matter of time before manufacturing come here.

Without significant tax cuts (made practically impossible with the 2010 constitution), we're going nowhere with the illusion of low cost manufacturing. For example, our top tax rate of 30% kicks in at Sh38k per month, which is ridiculous. Now add in all additional high taxes on fuel, imports, etc.

How can we expect our manufacturing base to be built when our tax regime systematically destroys the very same capital needed?

[RV Pundit]

How did 2010 make tax cuts impossible? That is crazy idea you got there. Treasury and Parliament have the leeway to hand down incentive. EPZ/AGOA have those tax incentives. And what has low cost manufacturing have anything with taxes anyway? The low cost manufacturing for export or for consumption here will be looking at so many parameters. One of which would be our reliable and affordable our electricity is, how cheap our transport cost is  -both for moving raw materials and finished goods - availability of trained and cheap labour who are productive, cost and availability of land, legal systems to enforce contracts, law and order - security - from cops,  and of course how strong our economy is --for local consumption - how is the supply chain? bla de bla.

If I were a big manufacture in China or US looking to relocate to kenya - I would want to make sure it profitable & scalable --and the main criteria would 1) Raw materials 2) cheap & reliable power  -gov can easily doll out subsidized power for large consumers 3) Land & related infra to locate the factory 4) Cost and availability of Labour- 5) Laws of land -how easy to register a company and whether I need to have say local shareholding and how predictable this is - 6) Money/Capital/Profit  -financial systems ability to move money quickly, stability of currency and other bla de bla.

And finally any gov incentive to mitigate any of the weakness.

Kenya will be nearly there in couple of years....when we trully have cheap and reliable power (compare RSA/EGypt/ Soon Ethiopia versus Kenya)..and we have SGR rolling down.

Without significant tax cuts (made practically impossible with the 2010 constitution), we're going nowhere with the illusion of low cost manufacturing. For example, our top tax rate of 30% kicks in at Sh38k per month, which is ridiculous. Now add in all additional high taxes on fuel, imports, etc.

How can we expect our manufacturing base to be built when our tax regime systematically destroys the very same capital needed?

[Empedocles]

How did 2010 make tax cuts impossible? That is crazy idea you got there. Treasury and Parliament have the leeway to hand down incentive. EPZ/AGOA have those tax incentives. And what has low cost manufacturing have anything with taxes anyway? The low cost manufacturing for export or for consumption here will be looking at so many parameters. One of which would be our reliable and affordable our electricity is, how cheap our transport cost is  -both for moving raw materials and finished goods - availability of trained and cheap labour who are productive, cost and availability of land, legal systems to enforce contracts, law and order - security - from cops,  and of course how strong our economy is --for local consumption - how is the supply chain? bla de bla.

If I were a big manufacture in China or US looking to relocate to kenya - I would want to make sure it profitable & scalable --and the main criteria would 1) Raw materials 2) cheap & reliable power  -gov can easily doll out subsidized power for large consumers 3) Land & related infra to locate the factory 4) Cost and availability of Labour- 5) Laws of land -how easy to register a company and whether I need to have say local shareholding and how predictable this is - 6) Money/Capital/Profit  -financial systems ability to move money quickly, stability of currency and other bla de bla.

And finally any gov incentive to mitigate any of the weakness.

Kenya will be nearly there in couple of years....when we trully have cheap and reliable power (compare RSA/EGypt/ Soon Ethiopia versus Kenya)..and we have SGR rolling down.

Big government created by the 2010 constitution costs more.

Where does the money to subsidize power come from?

Where does the government get money from?

EDIT: Fuel levy is going up by 6bob on 15th July....raising costs of doing business.

[RV Pundit]

You can't be serious. How much more does the new constitution cost us? It a small increment in our 20 billion USD budget. Not even 1% more. Parliament and Treasury have lots of discretion to decide who get tax cuts and who doesn't. There are activities that get heavily taxed..alcholohl, tobacco, gambling...and those benefits can be handed over to low cost manufacturing.But like I said I don't think you are serious or have really though out this. This seem like misinformed kneejerk reaction.

The game changer for kenya as far as low cost manufacturing is fixing ELECTRICITY. Fixing Road, Ports and Rails. I think everything else is nearly in place. The softer issues are already getting sorted if you go by "Doing Business" report by WB.

Gov plans to establish industries in Naivasha and along SGR route is step in right direction.

Big government created by the 2010 constitution costs more.

Where does the money to subsidize power come from?

Where does the government get money from?

EDIT: Fuel levy is going up by 6bob on 15th July....raising costs of doing business.

[Empedocles]

You can't be serious. How much more does the new constitution cost us? It a small increment in our 20 billion USD budget. Not even 1% more. Parliament and Treasury have lots of discretion to decide who get tax cuts and who doesn't. There are activities that get heavily taxed..alcholohl, tobacco, gambling...and those benefits can be handed over to low cost manufacturing.But like I said I don't think you are serious or have really though out this. This seem like misinformed kneejerk reaction.

The game changer for kenya as far as low cost manufacturing is fixing ELECTRICITY. Fixing Road, Ports and Rails. I think everything else is nearly in place. The softer issues are already getting sorted if you go by "Doing Business" report by WB.

Gov plans to establish industries in Naivasha and along SGR route is step in right direction.

Big government created by the 2010 constitution costs more.

Where does the money to subsidize power come from?

Where does the government get money from?

EDIT: Fuel levy is going up by 6bob on 15th July....raising costs of doing business.

You still haven't answered my questions: how does the government get money?

In addition, how has the growth of the government since the 2010 constitution impacted the budget expenditure away from development costs to recurrent expenditure?

Add to that the costs of corruption, which is estimated to be about 30% of government budget.

The Kenya government does not and have never ever made money. Every single cent comes from taxation. So the higher the taxation, the less private capital is available for manufacturing.

Example: a truck's taxation is almost 100% of the imported cost, which, for the company planning to use it for business, necessitates them having much higher prices for their goods compared to other countries with lower taxation to cover their tax burden.

Kapisch?

[RV Pundit]

Are we seriously going to engage in economic 101 or this is just beyond your paygrade? You are mixing everything up into a pile of confusion. Gov just released a 20b USD plus budget. 1.4 trillion kshs will come from taxes. The other portion will be AIA (fees, license, court fines), loans (domestic +external) and grants.When you say higher taxation..you mean to who? There are sectors who are getting taxed less, other taxed more. That has got to do with treasury and parliament priority thinking.Anyway I think you should read this stuff up before we can engage in any discussion. Just note our tax rate is about 18% to GDP. Countries like RSA are doing 25%. Those in Europe are taxing 50% of their GDP. In short we still have a LOT OF scope to increase our taxes...we just have to figure out how to do that. As of now PAYE account for nearly 50% of our tax base..and yet we are relying on 2-3M formal jobs. If KRA & treasury were to engage their brains they would probably be able to collect a lot more!

Just get back to low cost manufacturing..and show me why gov cannot dole out tax incentive like they've done to EPZ. If that isn't too much. Of course they can...if that was the only thing blocking a manufacturer who can demonstrate to treasury the economic benefits.

You still haven't answered my questions: how does the government get money?

In addition, how has the growth of the government since the 2010 constitution impacted the budget expenditure away from development costs to recurrent expenditure?

Add to that the costs of corruption, which is estimated to be about 30% of government budget.

The Kenya government does not and have never ever made money. Every single cent comes from taxation. So the higher the taxation, the less private capital is available for manufacturing.

Example: a truck's taxation is almost 100% of the imported cost, which, for the company planning to use it for business, necessitates them having much higher prices for their goods compared to other countries with lower taxation to cover their tax burden.

Kapisch?

[Empedocles]

Are we seriously going to engage in economic 101 or this is just beyond your paygrade? You are mixing everything up into a pile of confusion. Gov just released a 20b USD plus budget. 1.4 trillion kshs will come from taxes. The other portion will be AIA (fees, license, court fines), loans (domestic +external) and grants.When you say higher taxation..you mean to who? There are sectors who are getting taxed less, other taxed more. That has got to do with treasury and parliament priority thinking.Anyway I think you should read this stuff up before we can engage in any discussion. Just note our tax rate is about 18% to GDP. Countries like RSA are doing 25%. Those in Europe are taxing 50% of their GDP. In short we still have a LOT OF scope to increase our taxes...we just have to figure out how to do that. As of now PAYE account for nearly 50% of our tax base..and yet we are relying on 2-3M formal jobs. If KRA & treasury were to engage their brains they would probably be able to collect a lot more!

Just get back to low cost manufacturing..and show me why gov cannot dole out tax incentive like they've done to EPZ. If that isn't too much. Of course they can...if that was the only thing blocking a manufacturer who can demonstrate to treasury the economic benefits.

You still haven't answered my questions: how does the government get money?

In addition, how has the growth of the government since the 2010 constitution impacted the budget expenditure away from development costs to recurrent expenditure?

Add to that the costs of corruption, which is estimated to be about 30% of government budget.

The Kenya government does not and have never ever made money. Every single cent comes from taxation. So the higher the taxation, the less private capital is available for manufacturing.

Example: a truck's taxation is almost 100% of the imported cost, which, for the company planning to use it for business, necessitates them having much higher prices for their goods compared to other countries with lower taxation to cover their tax burden.

Kapisch?

I respectfully bow out.

[MOON Ki]

I respectfully bow out.

Your arguments are on the mark, and there is a treasure-trove of facts out there that supports them, but I doubt that facts and logical reasoning will do you much good here.   

[Georgesoros]

Great arguments.
Kenya has borrowed lots of cash on the hope that the country will keep generating money from taxation. Its like when I got my first job and went on to borrow money for a car, furniture, etc. The problem with Kenya is that the money is spent frivolously in stead of critical areas like infrustructure.

You can't be serious. How much more does the new constitution cost us? It a small increment in our 20 billion USD budget. Not even 1% more. Parliament and Treasury have lots of discretion to decide who get tax cuts and who doesn't. There are activities that get heavily taxed..alcholohl, tobacco, gambling...and those benefits can be handed over to low cost manufacturing.But like I said I don't think you are serious or have really though out this. This seem like misinformed kneejerk reaction.

The game changer for kenya as far as low cost manufacturing is fixing ELECTRICITY. Fixing Road, Ports and Rails. I think everything else is nearly in place. The softer issues are already getting sorted if you go by "Doing Business" report by WB.

Gov plans to establish industries in Naivasha and along SGR route is step in right direction.

Big government created by the 2010 constitution costs more.

Where does the money to subsidize power come from?

Where does the government get money from?

EDIT: Fuel levy is going up by 6bob on 15th July....raising costs of doing business.

You still haven't answered my questions: how does the government get money?

In addition, how has the growth of the government since the 2010 constitution impacted the budget expenditure away from development costs to recurrent expenditure?

Add to that the costs of corruption, which is estimated to be about 30% of government budget.

The Kenya government does not and have never ever made money. Every single cent comes from taxation. So the higher the taxation, the less private capital is available for manufacturing.

Example: a truck's taxation is almost 100% of the imported cost, which, for the company planning to use it for business, necessitates them having much higher prices for their goods compared to other countries with lower taxation to cover their tax burden.

Kapisch?

[RV Pundit]

I think WB/IMF have generally praised Kenya for it's prudent financial management. As long as our GDP is growing; then we shouldn't worry about our rising debt; coz the debt to gdp ratio will however at less than 50% -- which countries in Europe, America and Asia would die to have. We need to borrow more SGR type loans - ringfenced for particular projects.

People can complain about debt -but in SGR we have the biggest investment ever made in modern kenya!

Great arguments.
Kenya has borrowed lots of cash on the hope that the country will keep generating money from taxation. Its like when I got my first job and went on to borrow money for a car, furniture, etc. The problem with Kenya is that the money is spent frivolously in stead of critical areas like infrustructure.