SGR Detractor

[RV Pundit]

Kenya should concentrate on kenya own interest. UG & Rwanda do not use Dar port that much because TZ is generally a mess. Just make it cheaper for intransit cargo to move to Kisumu and Malaba and Busia and Namanga and Taita...and let them do whatever they want from their end. Right now after Jubilee reform clearing time in Mombasa has dramatically reduced to 2-3 days from a week in 2013...those and such reforms are the ultimate winners for economy. We should be aiming for clearing time of even 1 day and cargo being moved the next day to Nairobi by 2017.

[Kadudu]

SGR was always a purely Kenyan affair. The Mombasa-Nairobi portion is a horse that has bolted.  That said, does it mean that it makes less economic sense to refurbish the existing MGR?  Is it more expensive to refurbish the entire MGR than to keep extending SGR?

Not true. SGR was designed to go till Rwanda while passing through Uganda and even the possibility of taking it till East DRC was in plan.
Kenya has messed big time and it is time we admitt the obvious and reorganise not only our finances but our relationship to the neighbouring countries.

[RV Pundit]

How has kenya messed up and what relationship need repairing? Kenya is delivering the rail 1yr ahead of schedule.

Not true. SGR was designed to go till Rwanda while passing through Uganda and even the possibility of taking it till East DRC was in plan.
Kenya has messed big time and it is time we admitt the obvious and reorganise not only our finances but our relationship to the neighbouring countries.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

SGR was always a purely Kenyan affair. The Mombasa-Nairobi portion is a horse that has bolted.  That said, does it mean that it makes less economic sense to refurbish the existing MGR?  Is it more expensive to refurbish the entire MGR than to keep extending SGR?

Not true. SGR was designed to go till Rwanda while passing through Uganda and even the possibility of taking it till East DRC was in plan.
Kenya has messed big time and it is time we admitt the obvious and reorganise not only our finances but our relationship to the neighbouring countries.

You are right about Rwanda.  They have denied they are pulling out of the project.  Kiriro's question about why they haven't started work on their end, remains relevant. 

http://www.newtimes.co.rw/section/article/2016-05-19/200028/

[MOON Ki]

You are right about Rwanda.  They have denied they are pulling out of the project.  Kiriro's question about why they haven't started work on their end, remains relevant. 

http://www.newtimes.co.rw/section/article/2016-05-19/200028/

The guy simply realized that he shouldn't have spoken.   It is not necessary to announce any "pull-out"; it suffices to simply do nothing.

The guy says the Tanzanian path is cheaper and shorter.   So, they want the Kenyan one because?   The statement that they will have both would make a great deal of sense only if they were getting at least one for free; the only thing that is free here is the statement.   

One also has to take into account Macharia's statements here (unless he too wishes to spin it into a "misunderstanding"):

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Kenya-to-terminate-railway-at-Kisumu-after-Rwanda-exit/-/1248928/3207470/-/rjhj8ez/-/index.html

Does that sound like all are together, happily working on the that route?   Either they do not have a very good plan and are not even communicating properly, unless one counts the media---and it's supposedly major project!---or both sides are simply out to produce a good story. 

To actually see which way Rwanda will go, all one needs to do is look at the timeline: Extension from Nairobi to Malaba to start at some unknown date and end at some unknown date; Uganda is then to start its connection to Malaba at some unknown date and finish at some unknown date; after that Uganda is to do a line to the Rwandan border, again dates unknown.   In the meantime, what is happening down south?

Here is an example of what I consider a good indicator of the reality:  Go to the webpage of the Rwanda Transport Development Agency, here:

http://www.rtda.gov.rw/index.php?id=86

To see what they have on railways, click on "Projects".  The only thing there is a summary of the Tanzanian project.  Nothing about any SGR with Kenya and Uganda.

...
   
The more I think about this, the less I see Kenya's SGR going beyond Nairobi, ... which is not to say that I believe it won't happen.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

MOON Ki,

I see what you are saying.  The only project on the Rwanda side is here.  It looks more and more like a go-it-alone Kenya project.  Uganda may conceivably be forced on board, not sure how; but they are more at Kenya's mercy than Rwanda. 

Rwanda has little to gain on that front.  Maybe solidarity with Kenya.  In fact, they'd be stupid to start construction, when Uganda is not clearly on board; it's not free.

[MOON Ki]

Rwanda has little to gain on that front.  Maybe solidarity with Kenya.  In fact, they'd be stupid to start construction, when Uganda is not clearly on board; it's not free.

There's little danger of that.   They don't have any plans on which they would base any construction.   They have not even carried out feasibility studies that would lead to the production of such plans.  In fact, it appears that they don't even have serious plans to carry out feasibility studies!   

[RV Pundit]

The "obsession" with connecting the line to Uganda and Rwanda just misplaced. In transit cargo is about 25% of all cargo at Mombasa port -to all countries in the hinterland...with SS growing really fast. 75% of the 1M TEUS that were received last year are destined for kenya. So what the big deal about 25%?

Kenya should build railway line to Kisumu, Busia and Malaba....and just let the hinterland sort themselves...with 25% of in transit cargo and of course all the cargo they import from kenya internally...kenya being their major trading partner and FDI source...moving there quickly and cheaply.

Uganda and Rwanda will not make SGR viable..it either viable now or not.

This is akin to nonsense we had from NEPAD with EASSY fiber network...it took Dr Bitange Ndemo guts to start our own teams and seacom. We laid fibre on our own all the way to Omani and we have far better internet here....than those guys who depend on EASSY alone.

[MOON Ki]

The "obsession" with connecting the line to Uganda and Rwanda just misplaced. In transit cargo is about 25% of all cargo at Mombasa port -to all countries in the hinterland...with SS growing really fast. 75% of the 1M TEUS that were received last year are destined for kenya. So what the big deal about 25%?

Kenya should build railway line to Kisumu, Busia and Malaba....and just let the hinterland sort themselves...with 25% of in transit cargo and of course all the cargo they import from kenya internally...kenya being their major trading partner and FDI source...moving there quickly and cheaply.

Uganda and Rwanda will not make SGR viable..it either viable now or not.

25% seems rather large when it is about serious money, so I would consider it a big deal.   But people may argue about that.      There are those who say it is not economically sensible right now,  but, again, people may argue about that.   What is more important is that anything resembling reasonable economics will depend on growth of traffic, to both destinations in Kenya and outside Kenya; so just looking at the figures right now do not necessarily help.

As for "Kenya should just build ...", it is not just a matter of Kenya deciding.   Funding is required.    For that, it cannot be assumed that Kung Fu is just burning to hand out (actually loan) money for these projects---in Kenya, Uganda, and elsewhere.   I doubt that it is.    For the Mombasa-Nairobi line, Kung Fu's approach to questions of economic viability were dealt with by forcing Kenya to take out very costly insurance on those loans.    The rest of the line to Malaba, and beyond, is even more questionable.  Will Kung be ready and willing?  If so, at what cost?   Remains to be seen ...

[RV Pundit]

The most important center of economy in whole of east africa is NAIROBI. I can say MSA-NBO line is good enough. The rest are nice to have. And now that we have taken insurance..what the BIG DEAL? We have our a.rse covered litterally...so keep building the railway...for the future.

We invest about the same amount every year investing in education of our kids..so what again is the big deal here.

That we are having this debate...in country that is lacking infra..is for me truly shocking.

25% seems rather large when it is about serious money, so I would consider it a big deal.   But people may argue about that.      There are those who say it is not economically sensible right now,  but, again, people may argue about that.   What is more important is that anything resembling reasonable economics will depend on growth of traffic, to both destinations in Kenya and outside Kenya; so just looking at the figures right now do not necessarily help.

As for "Kenya should just build ...", it is not just a matter of Kenya deciding.   Funding is required.    For that, it cannot be assumed that Kung Fu is just burning to hand out (actually loan) money for these projects---in Kenya, Uganda, and elsewhere.   I doubt that it is.    For the Mombasa-Nairobi line, Kung Fu's approach to questions of economic viability were dealt with by forcing Kenya to take out very costly insurance on those loans.    The rest of the line to Malaba, and beyond, is even more questionable.  Will Kung be ready and willing?  If so, at what cost?   Remains to be seen ...

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The "obsession" with connecting the line to Uganda and Rwanda just misplaced. In transit cargo is about 25% of all cargo at Mombasa port -to all countries in the hinterland...with SS growing really fast. 75% of the 1M TEUS that were received last year are destined for kenya. So what the big deal about 25%?

Kenya should build railway line to Kisumu, Busia and Malaba....and just let the hinterland sort themselves...with 25% of in transit cargo and of course all the cargo they import from kenya internally...kenya being their major trading partner and FDI source...moving there quickly and cheaply.

Uganda and Rwanda will not make SGR viable..it either viable now or not.

This is akin to nonsense we had from NEPAD with EASSY fiber network...it took Dr Bitange Ndemo guts to start our own teams and seacom. We laid fibre on our own all the way to Omani and we have far better internet here....than those guys who depend on EASSY alone.

It looks more like 31%(7.19/22.67) of the cargo is in transit.  But if it is 25%, I am gathering you think Kenya just ignore that.  I think Uganda is a captive regardless of which way Kenya goes; it makes sense to work out a common approach.  Rwanda seems to have more options, and are apparently sorting themselves out already.

[MOON Ki]

And now that we have taken insurance..what the BIG DEAL? We have our a.rse covered litterally...

No, no, no.

It's Kung Fu that has his "arse literally covered": Whether the line makes money or not, he gets paid in full. (On top of that, he's already pocketing that hefty insurance fee.) The big deal is that Kenya---i.e. the collection of taxpaying Kenyans---gets f**ked if the line loses money.   

That we are having this debate...in country that is lacking infra..is for me truly shocking.

You get shocked too easily.

The debate is not whether or not Kenya needs good railway lines; it is whether or not it needs this costly SGR.   If the government is serious about having a good railway system, then consider this: Right now Kenya has something like 2100 km of rail.   How much of that is operational? Something like a half.    There seems to be an obvious project there---repair, refurbish, maintain ...  Anybody talking about that?

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

The "obsession" with connecting the line to Uganda and Rwanda just misplaced. In transit cargo is about 25% of all cargo at Mombasa port -to all countries in the hinterland...with SS growing really fast. 75% of the 1M TEUS that were received last year are destined for kenya. So what the big deal about 25%?

Kenya should build railway line to Kisumu, Busia and Malaba....and just let the hinterland sort themselves...with 25% of in transit cargo and of course all the cargo they import from kenya internally...kenya being their major trading partner and FDI source...moving there quickly and cheaply.

Uganda and Rwanda will not make SGR viable..it either viable now or not.

25% seems rather large when it is about serious money, so I would consider it a big deal.   But people may argue about that.      There are those who say it is not economically sensible right now,  but, again, people may argue about that.   What is more important is that anything resembling reasonable economics will depend on growth of traffic, to both destinations in Kenya and outside Kenya; so just looking at the figures right now do not necessarily help.

That's correct.  One would think all these photo-ops by regional leaders are more than just publicity stunts.  That the countries need to increase integration of their infrastructure is a no brainer.

[Omollo]

http://www.nation.co.ke/news/Rwanda-exit-casts-doubts-on-viability-of-SGR-/-/1056/3214544/-/7jv1h8z/-/index.html

[RV Pundit]

I am at Uganda now and UG's SGR team are already working on compensation starting from Malaba & Tororo. Kenya therefore should continue with SGR all the way to Malaba and possibly extend it to other border posts along TZ & UG border.

[Empedocles]

Interesting analysis of the SGR from The Economist:

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21699919-africas-new-railways-risk-going-way-old-ones-puffed-out

[RV Pundit]

They didn't do any homework. They should have asked WB/IFC dude how the current railway went when GoK allowed WB/IFC them to ran the show and modernize it. Secondly they should have known GoK has already selected China Roads & Bridges to ran the rail line for the first five years. The rolling stock is being shipped this year for a test ran..and the largest investment in modern kenya..is well on course for roll out next year. Other facts ignored in this SGR..is that kenya one including rolling stock and 23B kshs inland depot in Embakasi...and of course it passes several animal parks...meaning many overpasses...so our line is more expensive.

This article is beyond lame. Certainly not upto the Economist standard.

Interesting analysis of the SGR from The Economist: