Author Topic: Raila Tricks Mudavadi  (Read 5586 times)

Offline Higgins the genius

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Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« on: May 24, 2015, 01:24:01 PM »

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2015, 01:39:04 PM »
I think MaDVD is likely headed to CORD. Western Kenya is corded with or without MaDVD and Jubilee really never had space for him. All Jubilee wanted from MaDVD was for him to spoil votes for Raila and he delivered. They didn't even bother to reward him for all that hard work.

If CORD can manage to add maDVD's 4%, manage to retain Kalonzo-Ukambani and really work on registering their voters in their stronghold (CORD priorities seem elsewhere blaming Mutunga and Hassan unfairly and without an iota of evidence)....then the next election become really interesting like 2007. It will be hard to call. Each side will be 50%:50%.

The biggest hurdle of course is deciding on the flag bearer (although naturally Raila ought to be the ONE)...Jubilee have an head start considering Ruto has granted Uhuru 10yrs without as much as whimper.

If CORD want to win elections..they have to really register in Western...they should stop the referendum Okoa nonsense and work on registering every eligible voter in their stronghold. That is all they need to win the elections and of course remain united.

But 2yrs to 2017 August election...and no lesson have been learnt from MOAS or tyranny of numbers. Jubilee soft areas where they can grow numbers including Maasai (despite CORD win in Kajiado), Gusii and perhaps the Northern Kenya.

Offline Omollo

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2015, 02:39:08 PM »
I don't understand what you mean by Raila tricks Mudavadi. What would Raila gain from Mudavadi? Votes in Vihiga? Naah, he got more votes there in the last elections than Mudavadi; Votes in Kakamega? same story.

Mudavadi should concentrate on running his businesses and give up politics because the level at which he is, there is nobody to GIVE him things. I wrote a brief piece on him yesterday and promptly received protest emails:Mudavadi is Overrated
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline Omollo

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2015, 02:59:31 PM »
I agree with your sentiments on MaDVD. However I disagree (as before) about the elections and the petition. I have thoroughly looked in to the matter. Here are my observations:
1. The election should have gone for a runoff as Uhuru did not secure a first round win
2. Instances of tampering with the register and tally are well documented
3. Jubilee used dirty though legally borderline tactics that would have unravelled in the runoff
4. The cash stolen by Kimemia and Iringo most likely bought the judges in addition to intimidation. It has led to my personal crusade to abolish the Supreme Court for ever

That said here are the mistakes Raila made:
a. He involved Politician lawyers in what should have been a purely legal issue. Politicians are traders
b. It is Mutula Kilonzo and Orengo who delayed the filing of the affidavit and even the petition itself. They could not have been unaware of what they were doing. Put differently I watched in horror as they failed to file the petition by the deadline arguing that they had obtained leave of the court. Technically the entire petition was filed late and was exposed to legal challenges.
c. For the second time Raila failed to station observers in Central and other Jubilee strongholds. The cash meant for this exercise was consumed by his close aides who then engaged each other in an acrimonious exchange as the agents waited for instructions. On the contrary, Jubilee deployed agents and bribers in all the polling stations in addition to NIS, CID, AP and other government operatives. CORD had nothing to match. Contrast this with 2002 when the Opposition could match KANU operatives 10 - 1 rendering their  rigging machine dead
d. The choice of a campaign manager still haunts Raila. He had gotten it right with Bett but changed to our own Luos. This sends a wrong message. Though Bett is a born coward, he presented a National image. I would have gone for Mutula Kilonzo.
e. He ignored a major constituency of his for too long. I shall not expound on this for now but ask me in 2018

I think MaDVD is likely headed to CORD. Western Kenya is corded with or without MaDVD and Jubilee really never had space for him. All Jubilee wanted from MaDVD was for him to spoil votes for Raila and he delivered. They didn't even bother to reward him for all that hard work.

If CORD can manage to add maDVD's 4%, manage to retain Kalonzo-Ukambani and really work on registering their voters in their stronghold (CORD priorities seem elsewhere blaming Mutunga and Hassan unfairly and without an iota of evidence)....then the next election become really interesting like 2007. It will be hard to call. Each side will be 50%:50%.

The biggest hurdle of course is deciding on the flag bearer (although naturally Raila ought to be the ONE)...Jubilee have an head start considering Ruto has granted Uhuru 10yrs without as much as whimper.

If CORD want to win elections..they have to really register in Western...they should stop the referendum Okoa nonsense and work on registering every eligible voter in their stronghold. That is all they need to win the elections and of course remain united.

But 2yrs to 2017 August election...and no lesson have been learnt from MOAS or tyranny of numbers. Jubilee soft areas where they can grow numbers including Maasai (despite CORD win in Kajiado), Gusii and perhaps the Northern Kenya.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2015, 03:42:30 PM »
Omollo, this is just classical nitpicking. Focus on the big picture. That is what wins election. Not small details.

What win elections in kenya? Simple 1) get the bigger tribal alliances and secondly going out to 2) register your strongholds and 3)ensure they vote in large numbers.

Raila failed in the 2 out of 3.

1) First instead of consolidating the gains of 2007 he allowed Ruto and Kalenjin to bolt out by famously screwing up Ruto position in NARA, MAU and ICC.If Raila had given Ruto what he wanted..slightly bigger position than a mere minister....like Uhuru has done...Ruto was contended to ran for PORK in 2022 or 2033 like he has done...he has age on his side..and he wants to eat as far as he can.

Then he allowed MaDVD (and his crucial 4%) to be played like a guitar by Kibaki folks. He only got one thing right...he managed to get Kalonzo and Kambas on his ticket.

2) Registration in his strongholds..including Migori,Kakamega, Bungoma and most of COAST was dismal to say the list. Raila had Immigration docket led by Kajwang. But he blew it.

3) Voter turn out was impressive in both CORD and Jubilee. This is the only thing Raila GOT RIGHT. It would have been worse. Raila could have lost by 42% to 52%. That turnout was truly impressive...and there was no rigging coz the everyone saw historic lines.

Those are FUNDAMENTALS.

As you focus on dispensable people (mutunga,kimemia,hassan); you're going to lose another election.

MaDVD is down but not out. He got crucial 4% that Raila need to get....by simply making MaDVD a little offer...something close to what Wetangula has...Majority Leader of Parliament. Or well taking him out of the picture...but somehow finding a leader than can unite all luhyas..Wetangula has a charisma of wooden block.

I agree with your sentiments on MaDVD. However I disagree (as before) about the elections and the petition. I have thoroughly looked in to the matter. Here are my observations:
1. The election should have gone for a runoff as Uhuru did not secure a first round win
2. Instances of tampering with the register and tally are well documented
3. Jubilee used dirty though legally borderline tactics that would have unravelled in the runoff
4. The cash stolen by Kimemia and Iringo most likely bought the judges in addition to intimidation. It has led to my personal crusade to abolish the Supreme Court for ever

That said here are the mistakes Raila made:
a. He involved Politician lawyers in what should have been a purely legal issue. Politicians are traders
b. It is Mutula Kilonzo and Orengo who delayed the filing of the affidavit and even the petition itself. They could not have been unaware of what they were doing. Put differently I watched in horror as they failed to file the petition by the deadline arguing that they had obtained leave of the court. Technically the entire petition was filed late and was exposed to legal challenges.
c. For the second time Raila failed to station observers in Central and other Jubilee strongholds. The cash meant for this exercise was consumed by his close aides who then engaged each other in an acrimonious exchange as the agents waited for instructions. On the contrary, Jubilee deployed agents and bribers in all the polling stations in addition to NIS, CID, AP and other government operatives. CORD had nothing to match. Contrast this with 2002 when the Opposition could match KANU operatives 10 - 1 rendering their  rigging machine dead
d. The choice of a campaign manager still haunts Raila. He had gotten it right with Bett but changed to our own Luos. This sends a wrong message. Though Bett is a born coward, he presented a National image. I would have gone for Mutula Kilonzo.
e. He ignored a major constituency of his for too long. I shall not expound on this for now but ask me in 2018


Offline Omollo

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2015, 04:40:20 PM »
Pundit

How about the rigging machine. How can CORD counter the dangerous machinery that Kikuyu ruling class inherited from Moi? How can any of these beat that machine?

You saw how it went in 2007. When the odds went against Kibaki he decided to steal openly and got away with it. What makes you think Uhuru would act differently?

About MaDVD, I think he is done. He got the 4% because CORD ignored him or feared him and never even campaigned in what they assumed were his strongholds. If you look at the figures you can see that by that CORD forfeited two senatorial seats and five MNAs (Members of the National Assembly). This pandering to him in bars is building him without according Raila any benefits. Raila's wife is popular in Vihiga and Kakamega and that is enough. All she did last time was attend the funeral of Ex Mayor Aladwa's father made a speech in Luhya and ended Mudavadi.

Back to registration: I prefer never to speak ill of the dead (with a few public figure exceptions). However Kajwang will never be forgiven for his failures in immigration. What I have advised is if the youth wont be given IDs and since GoK has refused to merge its databases, then CORD should resort to the same central game of issuing fake ID cards. If it comes to head, Central would lose more "voters" than Nyanza and Western.

That said, I delved in to this issue once. I devoted one full week to the issue of ID cards. Basically the IEBC would register you with anything that looks like an ID card - forget the nonsense about verifying the number etc. So there is no problem with Isaac Chickens Hassan.

The problem lies with ID cards. The IDs are not denied to them as such. The youth don't go. The centres are far and youth need transportation to those places. All one needs to do is hire a free bus to transport them to registration centers. They can eat maharagwe as they wait and then be dropped back. 

The other problem is that as soon as they apply, the vanish never to pick the IDs (see image). I can estimate that there are about 3 million uncollected ID cards lying around.

Some reforms can be effectuated. Private companies, banks etc can have the IDs they issue recognized. Companies that can prove they are honest and credible can also issue ID cards which the IEBC as well as other agencies and companies will have the option of recognizing. What is required inside is the Photo, may be fingerprint and PIN. Any extra details would be welcome. The government monopoly on ID cards must end. Other countries do not have ID cards yet operate quite well.

All I need is my credit card, driving license or in some cases ID card issued by a private/ public entity and I get my way. Outside my comfort zone is my passport.

Omollo, this is just classical nitpicking. Focus on the big picture. That is what wins election. Not small details.

What win elections in kenya? Simple 1) get the bigger tribal alliances and secondly going out to 2) register your strongholds and 3)ensure they vote in large numbers.

Raila failed in the 2 out of 3.

1) First instead of consolidating the gains of 2007 he allowed Ruto and Kalenjin to bolt out by famously screwing up Ruto position in NARA, MAU and ICC.If Raila had given Ruto what he wanted..slightly bigger position than a mere minister....like Uhuru has done...Ruto was contended to ran for PORK in 2022 or 2033 like he has done...he has age on his side..and he wants to eat as far as he can.

Then he allowed MaDVD (and his crucial 4%) to be played like a guitar by Kibaki folks. He only got one thing right...he managed to get Kalonzo and Kambas on his ticket.

2) Registration in his strongholds..including Migori,Kakamega, Bungoma and most of COAST was dismal to say the list. Raila had Immigration docket led by Kajwang. But he blew it.

3) Voter turn out was impressive in both CORD and Jubilee. This is the only thing Raila GOT RIGHT. It would have been worse. Raila could have lost by 42% to 52%. That turnout was truly impressive...and there was no rigging coz the everyone saw historic lines.

Those are FUNDAMENTALS.

As you focus on dispensable people (mutunga,kimemia,hassan); you're going to lose another election.

MaDVD is down but not out. He got crucial 4% that Raila need to get....by simply making MaDVD a little offer...something close to what Wetangula has...Majority Leader of Parliament. Or well taking him out of the picture...but somehow finding a leader than can unite all luhyas..Wetangula has a charisma of wooden block.
... [the ICC case] will be tried in Europe, where due procedure and expertise prevail.; ... Second-guessing Ocampo and fantasizing ..has obviously become a national pastime.- NattyDread

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2015, 04:56:14 PM »
Omollo,
I largely agree with you on this.

MaDVD is down...he is as always looking for someone to pull him out of the rut. Raila should finish the job that Jubilee started with MaDVD..finish him off. Not pander to him. But crash him by elevating Khawale in Kakamega and Vihiga governor or someone in Maragoli land.Propping him is just adding more chiefs without indians on cord stable...it going to be an headache negotiating position with nobodies...only Kalonzo deserve special treatment in CORD..given Raila is very vulnerable there.

Registration. I think this can be done.First CORD need to drop this propaganda on why they lost. They should tell their people the truth...we lost because we did not register...then people will take care of it. They can do this through radio stations in their stronghold. After admitting that fact....CORD just need money and volunteers. They go village to village...ensuring everyone is registered...and those that haven't...are assisted to do so. This is critical esp in Western...who are registering half their eligible voters. If the narrative is we lost coz of trynny (gema superior numbers) or rigging or judges were bought..then folks in mashinani will have no biashara with such complex things.

If CORD registers..and get maDVD numbers...they will pip Uhuru..

And now comes RIGGING. Each side will rig...that is given..but gov has machinery to rig in places that are hard to reach or monitor. The only guarantee against rigging is beating the gov so badly...it make it impossible to rig...like in 2002.

Elevating "RIGGING" is self-defeatist. It not going to help CORD. Just like boycotting elections never helped Matiba. Nor did opposition get anywhere in 90s with rigging rigging and rigging propaganda. You've got to work with what you get. Uhuru nows has machinery and money. CORD unlike in 2007 have nothing on that scale but have county govs.

So CORD should work on winning (real MOAS ..not imagined opinion polls) by 10%. That is going to be hard....but so is becoming PORK. Focus on registration...registration...registration..then voter turn out voter turn out...and then play the TRIBAL CARD to it maximum detriment (ala 2007).

That is my free advice...CORD have to play the tribal card without apology, register like nonsense and turn up to voter like nobody business.

 Obama won by doing exactly that..registering students, volunteers, get 10dollars here and there...that is what CORD needs to do. Cease baseless and useless propaganda against Mutunga and Hasan...they will be gone before 2017 and nothing changes.

Off to the bar.

Pundit

How about the rigging machine. How can CORD counter the dangerous machinery that Kikuyu ruling class inherited from Moi? How can any of these beat that machine?

You saw how it went in 2007. When the odds went against Kibaki he decided to steal openly and got away with it. What makes you think Uhuru would act differently?

About MaDVD, I think he is done. He got the 4% because CORD ignored him or feared him and never even campaigned in what they assumed were his strongholds. If you look at the figures you can see that by that CORD forfeited two senatorial seats and five MNAs (Members of the National Assembly). This pandering to him in bars is building him without according Raila any benefits. Raila's wife is popular in Vihiga and Kakamega and that is enough. All she did last time was attend the funeral of Ex Mayor Aladwa's father made a speech in Luhya and ended Mudavadi.

Back to registration: I prefer never to speak ill of the dead (with a few public figure exceptions). However Kajwang will never be forgiven for his failures in immigration. What I have advised is if the youth wont be given IDs and since GoK has refused to merge its databases, then CORD should resort to the same central game of issuing fake ID cards. If it comes to head, Central would lose more "voters" than Nyanza and Western.

That said, I delved in to this issue once. I devoted one full week to the issue of ID cards. Basically the IEBC would register you with anything that looks like an ID card - forget the nonsense about verifying the number etc. So there is no problem with Isaac Chickens Hassan.

The problem lies with ID cards. The IDs are not denied to them as such. The youth don't go. The centres are far and youth need transportation to those places. All one needs to do is hire a free bus to transport them to registration centers. They can eat maharagwe as they wait and then be dropped back. 

The other problem is that as soon as they apply, the vanish never to pick the IDs (see image). I can estimate that there are about 3 million uncollected ID cards lying around.

Some reforms can be effectuated. Private companies, banks etc can have the IDs they issue recognized. Companies that can prove they are honest and credible can also issue ID cards which the IEBC as well as other agencies and companies will have the option of recognizing. What is required inside is the Photo, may be fingerprint and PIN. Any extra details would be welcome. The government monopoly on ID cards must end. Other countries do not have ID cards yet operate quite well.

All I need is my credit card, driving license or in some cases ID card issued by a private/ public entity and I get my way. Outside my comfort zone is my passport.

Omollo, this is just classical nitpicking. Focus on the big picture. That is what wins election. Not small details.

What win elections in kenya? Simple 1) get the bigger tribal alliances and secondly going out to 2) register your strongholds and 3)ensure they vote in large numbers.

Raila failed in the 2 out of 3.

1) First instead of consolidating the gains of 2007 he allowed Ruto and Kalenjin to bolt out by famously screwing up Ruto position in NARA, MAU and ICC.If Raila had given Ruto what he wanted..slightly bigger position than a mere minister....like Uhuru has done...Ruto was contended to ran for PORK in 2022 or 2033 like he has done...he has age on his side..and he wants to eat as far as he can.

Then he allowed MaDVD (and his crucial 4%) to be played like a guitar by Kibaki folks. He only got one thing right...he managed to get Kalonzo and Kambas on his ticket.

2) Registration in his strongholds..including Migori,Kakamega, Bungoma and most of COAST was dismal to say the list. Raila had Immigration docket led by Kajwang. But he blew it.

3) Voter turn out was impressive in both CORD and Jubilee. This is the only thing Raila GOT RIGHT. It would have been worse. Raila could have lost by 42% to 52%. That turnout was truly impressive...and there was no rigging coz the everyone saw historic lines.

Those are FUNDAMENTALS.

As you focus on dispensable people (mutunga,kimemia,hassan); you're going to lose another election.

MaDVD is down but not out. He got crucial 4% that Raila need to get....by simply making MaDVD a little offer...something close to what Wetangula has...Majority Leader of Parliament. Or well taking him out of the picture...but somehow finding a leader than can unite all luhyas..Wetangula has a charisma of wooden block.

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2015, 07:35:40 PM »
Omollo:

At this stage, the possibility of rigging in 2017 should not be much of a concern: Raila & Friends appear to have firmly settled on a path that will guarantee them a licking---and a proper one at that---in a clean fight.
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline machoman

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2015, 07:55:33 PM »
The political landscape is going to change before next elections are held.

Offline RV Pundit

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Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2015, 04:45:24 PM »
I note that according to the article:

Quote
Already ODM has launched a quiet but massive voter registration campaign in its strongholds.

Maybe it is too quiet:

Quote
TURNOUT for voter education and registration in Nyanza is disturbingly low, IEBC vice chairperson Lilian Zaja has said. The commission is on a five-day voter education and registration drive in all wards across the country 

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/low-nyanza-turnout-voters-sign#sthash.tdhv8oUX.1Q91dEaN.dpuf
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.

Offline vooke

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2015, 06:29:20 PM »
I note that according to the article:

Quote
Already ODM has launched a quiet but massive voter registration campaign in its strongholds.

Maybe it is too quiet:

Quote
TURNOUT for voter education and registration in Nyanza is disturbingly low, IEBC vice chairperson Lilian Zaja has said. The commission is on a five-day voter education and registration drive in all wards across the country 

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/low-nyanza-turnout-voters-sign#sthash.tdhv8oUX.1Q91dEaN.dpuf

At the very least IEBC is impartial on the voter registration campaign. In fact it will be impartial until some character is thrashed
2 Timothy 2:4  No man that warreth entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier.

Offline Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2015, 06:54:34 PM »
I note that according to the article:

Quote
Already ODM has launched a quiet but massive voter registration campaign in its strongholds.

Maybe it is too quiet:

Quote
TURNOUT for voter education and registration in Nyanza is disturbingly low, IEBC vice chairperson Lilian Zaja has said. The commission is on a five-day voter education and registration drive in all wards across the country 

http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/low-nyanza-turnout-voters-sign#sthash.tdhv8oUX.1Q91dEaN.dpuf

At the very least IEBC is impartial on the voter registration campaign. In fact it will be impartial until some character is thrashed
To paraphrase.  If they are impartial, some character will win.
"I freed a thousand slaves.  I could have freed a thousand more if only they knew they were slaves."

Harriet Tubman

Offline MOON Ki

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Re: Raila Tricks Mudavadi
« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2015, 10:47:33 PM »
The idea of mischief-free elections in Kenya is an interesting one.    But "stranger" things have been known to happen in this world.
MOON Ki  is  Muli Otieno Otiende Njoroge arap Kiprotich
Your True Friend, Brother,  and  Compatriot.