Pundit
How about the rigging machine. How can CORD counter the dangerous machinery that Kikuyu ruling class inherited from Moi? How can any of these beat that machine?
You saw how it went in 2007. When the odds went against Kibaki he decided to steal openly and got away with it. What makes you think Uhuru would act differently?
About MaDVD, I think he is done. He got the 4% because CORD ignored him or feared him and never even campaigned in what they assumed were his strongholds. If you look at the figures you can see that by that CORD forfeited two senatorial seats and five MNAs (Members of the National Assembly). This pandering to him in bars is building him without according Raila any benefits. Raila's wife is popular in Vihiga and Kakamega and that is enough. All she did last time was attend the funeral of Ex Mayor Aladwa's father made a speech in Luhya and ended Mudavadi.
Back to registration: I prefer never to speak ill of the dead (with a few public figure exceptions). However Kajwang will never be forgiven for his failures in immigration. What I have advised is if the youth wont be given IDs and since GoK has refused to merge its databases, then CORD should resort to the same central game of issuing fake ID cards. If it comes to head, Central would lose more "voters" than Nyanza and Western.
That said, I delved in to this issue once. I devoted one full week to the issue of ID cards. Basically the IEBC would register you with anything that looks like an ID card - forget the nonsense about verifying the number etc. So there is no problem with Isaac Chickens Hassan.
The problem lies with ID cards. The IDs are not denied to them as such. The youth don't go. The centres are far and youth need transportation to those places. All one needs to do is hire a free bus to transport them to registration centers. They can eat maharagwe as they wait and then be dropped back.
The other problem is that as soon as they apply, the vanish never to pick the IDs (see image). I can estimate that there are about 3 million uncollected ID cards lying around.
Some reforms can be effectuated. Private companies, banks etc can have the IDs they issue recognized. Companies that can prove they are honest and credible can also issue ID cards which the IEBC as well as other agencies and companies will have the option of recognizing. What is required inside is the Photo, may be fingerprint and PIN. Any extra details would be welcome. The government monopoly on ID cards must end. Other countries do not have ID cards yet operate quite well.
All I need is my credit card, driving license or in some cases ID card issued by a private/ public entity and I get my way. Outside my comfort zone is my passport.
Omollo, this is just classical nitpicking. Focus on the big picture. That is what wins election. Not small details.
What win elections in kenya? Simple 1) get the bigger tribal alliances and secondly going out to 2) register your strongholds and 3)ensure they vote in large numbers.
Raila failed in the 2 out of 3.
1) First instead of consolidating the gains of 2007 he allowed Ruto and Kalenjin to bolt out by famously screwing up Ruto position in NARA, MAU and ICC.If Raila had given Ruto what he wanted..slightly bigger position than a mere minister....like Uhuru has done...Ruto was contended to ran for PORK in 2022 or 2033 like he has done...he has age on his side..and he wants to eat as far as he can.
Then he allowed MaDVD (and his crucial 4%) to be played like a guitar by Kibaki folks. He only got one thing right...he managed to get Kalonzo and Kambas on his ticket.
2) Registration in his strongholds..including Migori,Kakamega, Bungoma and most of COAST was dismal to say the list. Raila had Immigration docket led by Kajwang. But he blew it.
3) Voter turn out was impressive in both CORD and Jubilee. This is the only thing Raila GOT RIGHT. It would have been worse. Raila could have lost by 42% to 52%. That turnout was truly impressive...and there was no rigging coz the everyone saw historic lines.
Those are FUNDAMENTALS.
As you focus on dispensable people (mutunga,kimemia,hassan); you're going to lose another election.
MaDVD is down but not out. He got crucial 4% that Raila need to get....by simply making MaDVD a little offer...something close to what Wetangula has...Majority Leader of Parliament. Or well taking him out of the picture...but somehow finding a leader than can unite all luhyas..Wetangula has a charisma of wooden block.