Is 2017 a forgone conclusion..

[RV Pundit]

Any lukewarm support will taken as declaration that kalenjin n kikuyu cannot co-exist and will set bad blood for another generation.There is no peaceful way out of this except returning the favour.Kalenjin would see this as yet another opportunity to galvanize and kick the unwelcome kikuyu out of rift.

[Kichwa]

You are stuck in the past. The world is changing very fast. By 2022 the 2013 MOU will have been overtaken by events and rendered irrelevant.

[Globalcitizen12]

Any lukewarm support will taken as declaration that kalenjin n kikuyu cannot co-exist and will set bad blood for another generation.There is no peaceful way out of this except returning the favour.Kalenjin would see this as yet another opportunity to galvanize and kick the unwelcome kikuyu out of rift.

Interesting because this fight may have to be fought in 2017 august when voters in Central refuse to vote. I am hearing a lot of chatter and it seems uhuru is working to stop this by visiting central this week. I think voters are just mad that he has failed to minimize corruption. The rebellion seems to be real and is from within. CORD may end up with 10 to 15% of central vote.

[hk]

Hk,
I think I responded to your inbox by mistake. Anyway my point is that the current politics in Kenya are not ideological they are all based on tribal domination and hegemony. So I would urge Kikuyus to vote for other tribal oligarchs just for tribal harmony sake. It seems they are prepared to do so for ruto in 2022. they can do it too in 2017 as a start.

RV Pundit,
CORD is  be beaten badly this time around. Raila has given up on Rift Valley and central. He only has lower eastern. if Kalonzo flips then Cord won't scrape 30%. CORD needed 840K votes to beat uhuru in 2013. Voter apathy cannot account for this chunk so CORD needs to out register Jubilee by 1.5M and also get out to vote in the upper 80s in all Cord zones. as for now Jubilee sits in a very good position

Who told you Kikuyu's are prepared to vote in Ruto in 2022 ?
After the times kabogo and that Naivasha Njoroge guy were
yap yapping telling Ruto not to expect kiuk votes in 2022,

An "internal" agreement was crafted that kiuks should not yap yap about
not electing Ruto in 2022 and instead reassure all how Ruto 2022
is a forgone conclusion.......until Uhuru is re-elected then people can
yap yap whatever they want

Seriously some of the things people come up with. Which is this internal agreement that over 2m people can have . I wish ruto was running I'd vote for him because there are few politicians in kenya that are as smart, driven and hardworking.

[hk]

Any lukewarm support will taken as declaration that kalenjin n kikuyu cannot co-exist and will set bad blood for another generation.There is no peaceful way out of this except returning the favour.Kalenjin would see this as yet another opportunity to galvanize and kick the unwelcome kikuyu out of rift.

Interesting because this fight may have to be fought in 2017 august when voters in Central refuse to vote. I am hearing a lot of chatter and it seems uhuru is working to stop this by visiting central this week. I think voters are just mad that he has failed to minimize corruption. The rebellion seems to be real and is from within. CORD may end up with 10 to 15% of central vote.

If there's voter apathy it'll be in Nairobi but not in central. That's why its paramount that jubilee select a governor candidate that can push kiuk middle class to vote. As for cord getting 10-15% of central votes those are dreams.

[Globalcitizen12]

Hk,
Raila had 7.9% in Kiambu county so his numbers can only go up.. I agree Middle class in Nairobi wont be voting or may be inclined to vote against uhuru. CORD just needs to improve turnout in Coast, western and Eastern Ukambani counties and they can be competitive. One thing is that Uhuru this time around may need second round to attain 50 plus 1

[hk]

Hk,
Raila had 7.9% in Kiambu county so his numbers can only go up.. I agree Middle class in Nairobi wont be voting or may be inclined to vote against uhuru. CORD just needs to improve turnout in Coast, western and Eastern Ukambani counties and they can be competitive. One thing is that Uhuru this time around may need second round to attain 50 plus 1

Kiambu has cosmopolitan towns like ruiru,juja,thika,kiambu , limuru , kinoo, kikuyu all have significant population of non locals. 8% is doable but 10-15% in central as whole not possible. There's something that people forget. The supreme court ruled that the rejected votes which were more than mudavadi's wont count https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Kenyan_presidential_election_petition . Meaning actually uhuru won by 53% . Itumbi and kuria were the petitioners, and that was clever.

[RV Pundit]

Right; Uhuru won with 53%; and this time round I am seeing him improving a lot in swing counties of coast, northern kenya, gusii and elsewhere. It won't suprise me if Uhuru win 60% of the total vote..at worst 55%.

Hk,
Raila had 7.9% in Kiambu county so his numbers can only go up.. I agree Middle class in Nairobi wont be voting or may be inclined to vote against uhuru. CORD just needs to improve turnout in Coast, western and Eastern Ukambani counties and they can be competitive. One thing is that Uhuru this time around may need second round to attain 50 plus 1

Kiambu has cosmopolitan towns like ruiru,juja,thika,kiambu , limuru , kinoo, kikuyu all have significant population of non locals. 8% is doable but 10-15% in central as whole not possible. There's something that people forget. The supreme court ruled that the rejected votes which were more than mudavadi's wont count https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Kenyan_presidential_election_petition . Meaning actually uhuru won by 53% . Itumbi and kuria were the petitioners, and that was clever.

[Globalcitizen12]

what will opposition look like in Post raila? To me it seems like current crop of politicians lack the focus and work ethic to keep opposition mobilized. Without Raila mobilization I think there would be no alternative voice and government could become complacent. I doubt Kalonzo can stay focused if left alone.

If what you are predicting is true then we can say that the Kenya voter is not yet tired of corruption/wanton looting.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

what will opposition look like in Post raila? To me it seems like current crop of politicians lack the focus and work ethic to keep opposition mobilized. Without Raila mobilization I think there would be no alternative voice and government could become complacent. I doubt Kalonzo can stay focused if left alone.

If what you are predicting is true then we can say that the Kenya voter is not yet tired of corruption/wanton looting.

There is no opposition.  The Kenyan politician is set for another generation or so.  The only work is to ensure they go back to whatever public office they need to go back to.

A few years, maybe a decade ago, it would have been possible to convince me Raila was an alternative voice.  Today, he seems just like the main challenge to the current regime, but nothing fundamentally different.

[Globalcitizen12]

windy,
Raila just realized that you cannot save the system at your own expense. He became part of it. He is the only threat that stands between power and Wanjiku.. Otherwise Wanjiku would be raped without consent .. remember Kiraitu infamous statement about a willing something something

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

windy,
Raila just realized that you cannot save the system at your own expense. He became part of it. He is the only threat that stands between power and Wanjiku.. Otherwise Wanjiku would be raped without consent .. remember Kiraitu infamous statement about a willing something something

I remember that Kiraitu statement.  They are indeed running the country on the basis of this wise? Meru proverb.  Raila stands between them and that, but only because that is his bargaining chip.  The man no longer has a moral platform.

What is obvious is that being in government, especially at the top echelons is super lucrative and seems set to be that way for a while.  You just have to ignore the noises and eat.

The irony of stability and being in power for 53 years(forget what they call themselves) is that they have consolidated so much power that all the possible alternatives are co-opted into the eating frenzy or they can swallow saliva from the sidelines.  You join them or you die.

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Any lukewarm support will taken as declaration that kalenjin n kikuyu cannot co-exist and will set bad blood for another generation.There is no peaceful way out of this except returning the favour.Kalenjin would see this as yet another opportunity to galvanize and kick the unwelcome kikuyu out of rift.

Are you saying the Kikuyu cannot live in peace if that Kalenjin thug doesn't get power in 2022?

[Gumzo]

Any lukewarm support will taken as declaration that kalenjin n kikuyu cannot co-exist and will set bad blood for another generation.There is no peaceful way out of this except returning the favour.Kalenjin would see this as yet another opportunity to galvanize and kick the unwelcome kikuyu out of rift.

Are you saying the Kikuyu cannot live in peace if that Kalenjin thug doesn't get power in 2022?

The threat of Kalenjin violence against RV based Kikuyu is Ruto's main bargaining chip for 2022
Kalenjin have learnt that violence works and produces desired results

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Any lukewarm support will taken as declaration that kalenjin n kikuyu cannot co-exist and will set bad blood for another generation.There is no peaceful way out of this except returning the favour.Kalenjin would see this as yet another opportunity to galvanize and kick the unwelcome kikuyu out of rift.

Are you saying the Kikuyu cannot live in peace if that Kalenjin thug doesn't get power in 2022?

The threat of Kalenjin violence against RV based Kikuyu is Ruto's main bargaining chip for 2022
Kalenjin have learnt that violence works and produces desired results

That approach is why we have ICC.  It should not be normalized.

[Globalcitizen12]

Windy,
give pundit credit for laying it out there in open. I fear for his safety because he says too much for the comfort of RVians. I remember him saying how he had to protect kisiis in his homestead during PEV. The approach of politics in Kenya is very dangerous. It is  a high stakes, cut throat competition and very emotional game being played. The lackeys like Ababu have been bought with few pennies. Martha had to fold and rejoin the team. it is a hopeless situation.

When Mutunga said it is a Mafia economy he was right. Jacob Juma was whacked mafia style for being indiscipline mob.

On ICC it is a toothless outfit that right now is on its death bed. the world has changed and with Trump Mania ICC won't matter

[Kim Jong-Un's Pajama Pants]

Windy,
give pundit credit for laying it out there in open. I fear for his safety because he says too much for the comfort of RVians. I remember him saying how he had to protect kisiis in his homestead during PEV. The approach of politics in Kenya is very dangerous. It is  a high stakes, cut throat competition and very emotional game being played. The lackeys like Ababu have been bought with few pennies. Martha had to fold and rejoin the team. it is a hopeless situation.

When Mutunga said it is a Mafia economy he was right. Jacob Juma was whacked mafia style for being indiscipline mob.

On ICC it is a toothless outfit that right now is on its death bed. the world has changed and with Trump Mania ICC won't matter

That a Kenyan could be killed over some obscure agreement between two thugs, which has nothing to do with him is insane, and I think people need to point this out when they mention it.  Even if it's true, it's also true that it is unacceptable.

[Globalcitizen12]

Windy,
Agreed, what always get me is what kind of socialization went on for this hate to take deep root. Ruto is just a figure head. The whole community has no regard for fellow human beings. They say you have to label and dehumanize a person as a precursor of genocide.