Matiangi

[Nefertiti]

I don't know what you mean Raila should wreck the government? Handshake already broke up Ruto-Kikuyu alliance. Ruto is now working overtime to wreck ODM.

Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.

2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.

3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.

This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.

MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.

[RV Pundit]

They are 10 counties where Kalenjin is Governor or Deputy governor. 11 if you add Nairobi.
Ruto scored 72 mps in URP in 2013. Uhuru had 80/85? Raila 95? Kaloi as always 15-20 Ukambani mps
Ruto scored 31% in 2010 constitution.
Ruto  with present Kenya Kwanza alliance will score 35-40% minus Mt Kenya.
He only need give someone who can get him 10% - Deputy Presidency.
So he pretty shoe in and you're wasting time - Poor Kaloi and Matiangi ni useless.

Unless opposition unite BEHIND RAILA; then Ruto will need to panick

Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.

2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.

3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.

This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.

MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.

[RV Pundit]

Yes outside Luo Nyanza, Ruto, need to wreck ODM, in KAMATUSA+COAST+NEP; He need to cut a deal with Joho outside ODM.
Gusii seem to be going with Matiangi.
Luhyas- Lower will stick with Raila.

I don't know what you mean Raila should wreck the government? Handshake already broke up Ruto-Kikuyu alliance. Ruto is now working overtime to wreck ODM.

[Githunguri]

They are 10 counties where Kalenjin is Governor or Deputy governor. 11 if you add Nairobi.
Ruto scored 72 mps in URP in 2013. Uhuru had 80/85? Raila 95? Kaloi as always 15-20 Ukambani mps
Ruto scored 31% in 2010 constitution.
Ruto  with present Kenya Kwanza alliance will score 35-40% minus Mt Kenya.
He only need give someone who can get him 10% - Deputy Presidency.
So he pretty shoe in and you're wasting time - Poor Kaloi and Matiangi ni useless.

Unless opposition unite BEHIND RAILA; then Ruto will need to panick

Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.

2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.

3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.

This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.

MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.

1) 10 Kalenjin allied counties.

How can you count Nairobi for Ruto?GEMA which helped Ruto win Nairobi is gone.

2) URP had 76Mps courtesy of alliance with GEMA and uhuru allied constituencies.If you remove GEMA,URP chances of winning more than  70 constituencies is gone.That means Ruto cannot have the speakers at senate or parliament.He is useless.

3 ) The 2010 referendum had Ruto,Moi and the church.If the total vote was 31%,Just remove the church vote and assume it was 5%.He is Down to 27%.

4) From 1992 1997 2002 2009 referendum The Kalenjin vote even with its allied tribes cannot exceed 35%.

If Raila odinga will be on the ballot,UDA will not have agents in KAMBA LUHYA LUO GEMA KISII areas across the country which makes rigging for Ruto difficult.Being a UDA agent will be a criminal offense.

[Githunguri]

I don't know what you mean Raila should wreck the government? Handshake already broke up Ruto-Kikuyu alliance. Ruto is now working overtime to wreck ODM.

Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.

2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.

3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.

This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.

MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.

1) Out of Ruto 2022 7M votes,50% was GEMA.Half of Mps senators and Govs were from GEMA.

Ruto is starting the 2027 elections with 3MN votes and less than 10 counties.

2)  Out of Raila 6.8MN votes,20% or less was Kamba.He has more solid support across kenya than Ruto.supporting Ruto means killing ODM.What does Raila gain by killing ODM?He becomes politically useless.If Raila is on the ballot,Ruto will be number 3.That said,Rutos agents will not be allowed beyond rift valley.You will have Gachagua kalonzo Matiangi hunt him on one side while raila jaluo will hunt him on the other side.

Did you see Ruto in Mp were funeral?It turned out to be an ODM mobilisation event.The death of were before ruto luo visit speaks volume.Infact wanga and kaluma wailing and blaming ruto gov speaks volume.The jaluo go ahead to hit ruto with a shoe while their leaders stay away.If Raila is supporting ruto,Why did he skip Ruto political tour?

[Tactician]

1) The 2010 referendum math is so way back, that it's irrelevant today.  Not to mention that the 31% included the anti-kadhi courts xtians + other renegades

2) We head to 2013, but instead of posting prez election results (51%) we are now counting MPs??

3) WSR got 51% (50.5%) in the 2022 prez election.  Approx half of that is gone with Gachagua.  Leaving him with 25%.  Not the 35-40%. 

4) Assume that WSR an additional 10% by cannibalizing ODM votes (Maa + Somali + Coast + Western).  That gets him to 35%.

5) Kalenjin counties had the highest turnout in 2022.  Meaning that WSR is unlikely to get a turnout boost in 2027.  In fact, WSR percentage vote is likelier to come down as other regions improve their turnout.  Let the impact of this be zero.  Still leaving WSR at 35%

6) Melon with his 9 to 10% gets him to 45%.  And that's assuming melon can deliver his whole Ukambani.  And that the little western votes (MDVD + Weta) don't back out as Melon will have overtaken them.  All in all, that puts WSR at 45%. 

Conclusion: Without RAO, WSR is not winning round one.

They are 10 counties where Kalenjin is Governor or Deputy governor. 11 if you add Nairobi.
Ruto scored 72 mps in URP in 2013. Uhuru had 80/85? Raila 95? Kaloi as always 15-20 Ukambani mps
Ruto scored 31% in 2010 constitution.
Ruto  with present Kenya Kwanza alliance will score 35-40% minus Mt Kenya.
He only need give someone who can get him 10% - Deputy Presidency.
So he pretty shoe in and you're wasting time - Poor Kaloi and Matiangi ni useless.

Unless opposition unite BEHIND RAILA; then Ruto will need to panick

Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.

2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.

3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.

This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.

MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.

[RV Pundit]

1)2010-Coalitions matter – Every win rests on strategic alliances – Ruto has led and won with 30% support; Kalonzo has never led above 8%.

2) 2013 baseline – URP vs. TNA were nearly neck-and-neck (70% vs. 80%), proving Ruto, with 40-50 Kalenjin mps managed to get 20 more across the country.

3) 2022 performance – Ruto netted 80% in Mt. Kenya; Raila grabbed 20% (~3 m of 7 m votes, ~43% of Ruto’s total -21% of National vote)

4) 2027 target – Ruto starts with premises that  has lost +21% (Mt Kenya) and is at 30%.


5) Plan A – Kindiki fight-back in Mt Kenya & organically grow elsewhere.

 i)  Mt. Kenya East & scared RV diaspora may vote “peace” vote - giving Ruto 1/3 of 80% that voted for him (≈ 7%).

ii) Penetrate Raila’s strongholds & ANY GOV IN POWER (KAMATUSA, Coast, Somali regions), where Raila won 70% to 30% - so far its looking good.

I havent run the numbers but if election are held Ruto will improve from Turkana, West Pokot, Narok, Kajiado, Samburu, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, Tana River, Kilifi, Kwale and Mombasa.

If you work on improving registrations & turn outs (aka RIGGING) - that is enough to get you 13%.

6) Plan B - Ruto is also pursuing Raila's ODM merger. The AU was big wrench and he needs to find something Raila can do. If this materalize - Raila's easily has 30-35% and Ruto's 30% - combine is easy 60%.

7) Plan C - Kindiki backfires, Raila backfires- Ruto will need to find Kalonzo or give Luhya DPORK - and work on getting 10% from Luhya - like get all Luhya votes.

Knowing how Ruto operates - he is going to be pursuing all those options.

1) The 2010 referendum math is so way back, that it's irrelevant today.  Not to mention that the 31% included the anti-kadhi courts xtians + other renegades

2) We head to 2013, but instead of posting prez election results (51%) we are now counting MPs??

3) WSR got 51% (50.5%) in the 2022 prez election.  Approx half of that is gone with Gachagua.  Leaving him with 25%.  Not the 35-40%. 

4) Assume that WSR an additional 10% by cannibalizing ODM votes (Maa + Somali + Coast + Western).  That gets him to 35%.

5) Kalenjin counties had the highest turnout in 2022.  Meaning that WSR is unlikely to get a turnout boost in 2027.  In fact, WSR percentage vote is likelier to come down as other regions improve their turnout.  Let the impact of this be zero.  Still leaving WSR at 35%

6) Melon with his 9 to 10% gets him to 45%.  And that's assuming melon can deliver his whole Ukambani.  And that the little western votes (MDVD + Weta) don't back out as Melon will have overtaken them.  All in all, that puts WSR at 45%. 

Conclusion: Without RAO, WSR is not winning round one.

They are 10 counties where Kalenjin is Governor or Deputy governor. 11 if you add Nairobi.
Ruto scored 72 mps in URP in 2013. Uhuru had 80/85? Raila 95? Kaloi as always 15-20 Ukambani mps
Ruto scored 31% in 2010 constitution.
Ruto  with present Kenya Kwanza alliance will score 35-40% minus Mt Kenya.
He only need give someone who can get him 10% - Deputy Presidency.
So he pretty shoe in and you're wasting time - Poor Kaloi and Matiangi ni useless.

Unless opposition unite BEHIND RAILA; then Ruto will need to panick

Out of 47 counties,
Ruto has ONLY 6 Kalenjins counties.
North Eastern Maasai is toss ups.
His national vote is below 30%.
If we use 2013 data,URP managed less than 50MPs or in 2022 half of UDA MPs Senators MCAs were GEMA.So Ruto is politically useless without GEMA.He has less than 10Govs Senators.

2) Raila supporting ruto in 2027 means killing ODM which is not possible.He still has significant vote in Luhya Kisii and Coast.He is over 30% national vote.

3) To ensure Kalonzo doesn't ran away and Ruto is not re-elected,Kalonzo has to give Kalonzo presidency or deputy presidency ticket.Their coalition is over 40% national vote.

This may lead us to a run off between Raila Vs Kalonzo.

MAIN BATTLEFIELD
How does Ruto stop from being number 3 in 2027 election?
His biggest enemy as we speak is Raila.He has to stop Raila before Raila destroys him.Raila knows this fact and he has to destroy Ruto.Make sure he is kicked out through a revolution or impeachment this year.It gives him last shot to the presidency.

[Githunguri]

Scenario 1) If Gachagua Matiangi back Kalonzo,

Then Raila is on the ballot with his Jaluo 50% Luhya 40% and Coast 40%.

Where will Ruto get votes outside Rift valley?

Scenario 2)  Incase we have the Scenario 1,Ruto will be locked out from Mt Kenya Ukambani Nyanza Western Coast.He will not be able to rig in those constituencies.His agents will be spectators.Police officers will stay away to maintain law and order and avoid chaos.

Incase of Scenario 1 + Scenario 2,Kalonzo will win or get 48%.There is a high probability ruto will be number 3 in that election like Nowayhaha says because if Ruto has lost 50% of his 2022 vote and Raila has maintained his strongholds apart from Kalonzo,It means Ruto is below 30% national vote.

IMPORTANT POINT.

The GEMA diaspora in Coast Western Ukambani contributed to Ruto vote.It maybe about 10%.The Kamba diaspora contributed to Raila vote alot in Nairobi and coast.A combination of Gema and Kamba diaspora countrywide contributes to Kalonzo Matiangi vote countrywide by 30%+ in Western and Coast and tilts the landscape in Nairobi.They ABSOLUTELY dont need Raila.

How will Ruto handle being Number 3 in 2027?

He will be massacred at the ballot.Raila knows this fact and he will start sabotaging him until early next year when he officially dumps him.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Ruto still has the Kikuyu nation if Raila runs. Ruto will have Kimani Ichungwah as his deputy and serve as Ruto's successor from 2032 to 2042.

[RV Pundit]

You seriously think Ruto and Raila are fools - and you're so smart.
That they can just run for it sake - without do basic ethnic modelling and maths.
Kalonzo+Gachagua+Matiangi - at very best will score 35%- maybe 40%.
Ruto wins at 60%.
Raila is only running under one condition - if Kalonzo+Matiangi+Gachagua+Kenyatta run to him with a ticket on their HAND - written ANYBODY BUT RUTO - BABA SAVE US.
High chance of Kenyatta-Gachagua-matiangi backing Raila - Kalonzo would be hard pressed to step down again.
If not Raila like everyone else will do the sensible thing - back GOV and continue making billions.
Nobody in gov now will go and back opposition.
Almost everyone is in gov - except those 3-4 idlers (Kalonzo, Matiangi, Gachagua, Kenyatta)

Scenario 1) If Gachagua Matiangi back Kalonzo,

Then Raila is on the ballot with his Jaluo 50% Luhya 40% and Coast 40%.

Where will Ruto get votes outside Rift valley?

Scenario 2)  Incase we have the Scenario 1,Ruto will be locked out from Mt Kenya Ukambani Nyanza Western Coast.He will not be able to rig in those constituencies.His agents will be spectators.Police officers will stay away to maintain law and order and avoid chaos.

Incase of Scenario 1 + Scenario 2,Kalonzo will win or get 48%.There is a high probability ruto will be number 3 in that election like Nowayhaha says because if Ruto has lost 50% of his 2022 vote and Raila has maintained his strongholds apart from Kalonzo,It means Ruto is below 30% national vote.

IMPORTANT POINT.

The GEMA diaspora in Coast Western Ukambani contributed to Ruto vote.It maybe about 10%.The Kamba diaspora contributed to Raila vote alot in Nairobi and coast.A combination of Gema and Kamba diaspora countrywide contributes to Kalonzo Matiangi vote countrywide by 30%+ in Western and Coast and tilts the landscape in Nairobi.They ABSOLUTELY dont need Raila.

How will Ruto handle being Number 3 in 2027?

He will be massacred at the ballot.Raila knows this fact and he will start sabotaging him until early next year when he officially dumps him.