Author Topic: African economic growth is not transformative per capita still low  (Read 4674 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: African economic growth is not transformative per capita still low
« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2023, 12:38:03 PM »
Yes there is no doubt looking at kenya GDP and GDP per capita that something is happening.
Two decades of almost uninterrupted economic growth.
GDP has grown from 12B to 120B - 10 times in 2 decades.
Yet we still have few issues to fix - population still too high (TFR of 3.4 - need to go as low as 2.8)
We still have many areas without electricity - 20M out of 55m kenyas are in darkness.
We still have many areas without basic piped water and paved roads - without security and all.
Still many areas with proper broadband, and whole digital economy shebang

Once we have fix those few issues - in less than decade - kenya will take off - and it will be one few countries to skip manufacturing.

Already by 2027 - Kenya GDP will be 200B plus. By 2030 the size of South Africa - proper middle class with super highways, big cities, malls, etc.

This gov seem to get it
1) Those 8M in Agricluture - need to be assisted to improve productivity
2) The rest in services and construction - need to also improve productivity.

Forget about MANUFACTURING - and focus on DIGITAL ECONOMY - get everyone smartphone - get all services on smart phone - with all m-pesa - name it - you can transform the society.

Look at 100K folks now hired as health care assistant combing villages - with help of digital tools.

Look at EV - and all the green energy moves - you dont need a lot to now enter in car manufacturing - as it now less complicated - to make car - with few parts.

Kenya is growing...nowadays even little shopping centers have hardware shops, agrovet, small stores, decent bar, computer cyber...gdp has grown relentlessly by almost twice pop growth..so gdp per capita increasing..for two decades...info tech n related are allowing africa to leapfrog..traditional model of growth...we might not need industralisation..can jump direct to service sector middle class economy. We might not need to produce much as long as we increasing our economy efficiency n velocity. We are in cusp of interesting leapfrog story.Most of kenys have more superior telcom n banking services than advanced nation.Now 14000 gov services are online.
You can buy insurance online, attend school online, work remotely earning top dollar.

Yes global south is skipping manufacturing... first due to factory automation there is no longer need for western companies to offshore for cheap labor. Robots are way more efficient than men. Second due to protectionism or end of globalization. Western governments have resorted to industrial policy to compete with China - and are forcing or incentiving companies to set up at home. Biden Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS & Science Act, etc - is pure protectionism. China and maybe Bangladesh, Vietnam are the last to ride the globalization off-shoring windfall.

 GDP per capita aka real growth or productivity - grew 5X since 2002 - according to World Bank.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=KE

https://www.statista.com/statistics/451113/gross-domestic-product-gdp-per-capita-in-kenya/



Offline Nefertiti

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Re: African economic growth is not transformative per capita still low
« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2023, 05:02:36 PM »
Yes, but more so in 2031 after 9 years of integrity-driven leadership. Have you heard of any credible scandals like Kemsa since Ruto came in? After digitization, 80% catels have been cut down to size! Give credit where it is due. Corruption will be a thing of the past too in 2+ years!

GoK revenues will tell us this authoritatively in 2024-25/6/7. If the charges & levies are pouring into official m-pesa tills and not afandes' pocket.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: African economic growth is not transformative per capita still low
« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2023, 05:58:08 PM »
Quote
workers have to be supervised with a whip to be productive

Lol...saying 6% growth for countries that are starting at the very bottom means very little.

Average per capita in rwanda is what? $900 dollars a year? Kagame is full of optics and has a big mouth, but rwanda remains dirt poor. Same with Benin and Ethiopia.

In order for Africans to become more productive, they have to start making real things. I keep asking here what it is that Africans actually make? I have yet to come up with an answer.  As long as Africans continue making nothing, they will remain the poorest continent in the world.

Africa total GDP is $2.9Trillion - per capita $2K  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_African_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Obviously the more developed countries will have per Capita higher than the $2K average.

Per Wikipedia - Seychelles is "high income" with per capita $20K has 2-14-84% economic structure. The exports are mostly value-added foods (agric) - then minerals (industry) - no "services" are listed here. Yet the GDP is 84% services 👀 - 74% of the labor pool works here.

This basically means the services sector does not export anything. The banks, fintechs, ICT firms are domestic services. This does not at all negate their economic input. However Seychelles current account will be negative - which affects inflation and credit rating.

In short exports are only a single factor in GDP - domestic consumption is the bigger part. Total and per capita GDP tell us how much "real stuff" is happening in an economy.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline gout

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Re: African economic growth is not transformative per capita still low
« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2023, 07:17:36 PM »
Quote
The PS said the government collected an average of Sh300 million a day in November.

According to Prof Bitok, out of the Sh903.6 million, Sh680 million was collected in Kenyan currency while the balance --$1,446,595 (Sh223.7 million)-- was paid in US dollars.
https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/daily-ecitizen-collections-hit-sh900m--4471250

The cartels are entrenched even digitally. Siphoning has been going on since 2013 by Webmaster, Goldrock or Pesaflow.

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/e-citizen-scandal-webmasters-the-dci-probe-that-never-was-and-what-omtatah-wants-in-court-4062006

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/senator-moves-to-court-to-question-sh50-ecitizen-fee--4455166
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one ~ Thomas Paine

Offline KenyanPlato

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Re: African economic growth is not transformative per capita still low
« Reply #24 on: December 22, 2023, 02:29:33 PM »
You have half my IQ my friend.
These things are beyond your simpleton brain ya CPA.
We Wacha kuleta ulevi kwa swala zito kama hili

How comes with your IQ you are unemployed and a reactionary force? There is no difference between you and the ogiek in Mau forest flolaging. I bet you that you cant even program shit. You are those guys who learn one coding language and never upgraded. Anyway I am buying hiyo kericho yenu and my first order of business is to send all Kipsigisi to NEP region.