Yes there is no doubt looking at kenya GDP and GDP per capita that something is happening.
Two decades of almost uninterrupted economic growth.
GDP has grown from 12B to 120B - 10 times in 2 decades.
Yet we still have few issues to fix - population still too high (TFR of 3.4 - need to go as low as 2.
We still have many areas without electricity - 20M out of 55m kenyas are in darkness.
We still have many areas without basic piped water and paved roads - without security and all.
Still many areas with proper broadband, and whole digital economy shebang
Once we have fix those few issues - in less than decade - kenya will take off - and it will be one few countries to skip manufacturing.
Already by 2027 - Kenya GDP will be 200B plus. By 2030 the size of South Africa - proper middle class with super highways, big cities, malls, etc.
This gov seem to get it
1) Those 8M in Agricluture - need to be assisted to improve productivity
2) The rest in services and construction - need to also improve productivity.
Forget about MANUFACTURING - and focus on DIGITAL ECONOMY - get everyone smartphone - get all services on smart phone - with all m-pesa - name it - you can transform the society.
Look at 100K folks now hired as health care assistant combing villages - with help of digital tools.
Look at EV - and all the green energy moves - you dont need a lot to now enter in car manufacturing - as it now less complicated - to make car - with few parts.
Kenya is growing...nowadays even little shopping centers have hardware shops, agrovet, small stores, decent bar, computer cyber...gdp has grown relentlessly by almost twice pop growth..so gdp per capita increasing..for two decades...info tech n related are allowing africa to leapfrog..traditional model of growth...we might not need industralisation..can jump direct to service sector middle class economy. We might not need to produce much as long as we increasing our economy efficiency n velocity. We are in cusp of interesting leapfrog story.Most of kenys have more superior telcom n banking services than advanced nation.Now 14000 gov services are online.
You can buy insurance online, attend school online, work remotely earning top dollar.
Yes global south is skipping manufacturing... first due to factory automation there is no longer need for western companies to offshore for cheap labor. Robots are way more efficient than men. Second due to protectionism or end of globalization. Western governments have resorted to industrial policy to compete with China - and are forcing or incentiving companies to set up at home. Biden Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS & Science Act, etc - is pure protectionism. China and maybe Bangladesh, Vietnam are the last to ride the globalization off-shoring windfall.
GDP per capita aka real growth or productivity - grew 5X since 2002 - according to World Bank.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?locations=KE
https://www.statista.com/statistics/451113/gross-domestic-product-gdp-per-capita-in-kenya/