Unless there is military coup at dead of the night like 82 - there is zero possibility of seccession or civil war.
Luos have no stomach for real war.
Just an afternoon of skirmishes.
If Ruto had been rigged in 2022 - right now we would be well into a proper civil war.
Right now - Ruto has support all over country - except maybe Luos. Luos themselves are tired with Raila....you can tell in this forum...they've given up.
Stop giving Luo nation false hope - Jubilee are already in UDA - acquired for one dollar. Uhuru and Gideon Moi are MIA. They are quietly negotiating - and buying their freedoms. Kenyatta family will likely give Ruto 10-20B compensation - behind the scenes - otherwise they know Ruto will finish their business. Any Kenyatta and Moi firms - plus their lackeys - cannot do business with UDA gov.
Raila once IEBC has been reconstituted - will sell ODM to Ruto - and retire. This last-ditch effort to force extra-judicial IEBC reconstitution.
He knows the game is about to end with 7 new IEBC appointed by Ruto.
Azimio leaning folks in IEBC will be cleared...replaced by Ruto people...2027 we should skip presidential election.
Precisely.
There will be elections on some parts of the country and secession referendums in other parts of the country.
Tigray Ethiopia crisis or Sudan South Sudan crisis 101.