MOASS (2022) project Ruto win of 55%, UDA 24 Govs, 26 Senators & KK 210 MPS

[Nefertiti]

Kakamega so far ANC 2 vs ODM 9.. won't be surprised if Khalwale loses.

UDA ZERO 

[RV Pundit]

Only Rashid of UDA had a chance here. ANC has underperformed.

Kakamega so far ANC 2 vs ODM 9.. won't be surprised if Khalwale loses.

UDA ZERO 

[RV Pundit]

MP - Generally ODM has done well in Western, Kajiado, Nairobi, Coast , slightly better in Gusii, seem to sweep Luo Nyanza - so they could go high as 75-80 mps
UDA - Mt Kenya and Kalenjin behemoth should easily take them to 40 percent of parliament - that 130 elected mps - before 20 something women mps - so plus half nominated
So UDA still looking good for 170-180

[RV Pundit]

Now the thread is unlocked for your discuscion.

[RV Pundit]

1st Turnout - I expected an historical average - to comedown to 72% - but it came down to 66%.

I had anticipated this would happen without manual register crossing the names

The decision by Court of Appeal to disallowing manual crossing removed massive rigging.

From the data the most massive rigging used to happen
1) Luo Nyanza - I would expect them be at 80% at worse - but 67% - indicate massive rigging of 13% used to happen.
2) Mt kenya - I think 5-10% percent.
3) NEP - will check

[RV Pundit]

53 versus 46% with 55 const to go!

Look like we will be very close.

WSR is at 53.3% vs RAO 46.1% out of 11.2m votes tallied from forms 34B of 234 / 291 constituencies uploaded on IEBC portal based on analysis by @MwangoCapital as at 8.44pm. This leaves results from 57 constituencies to be tallied from which RAO has a gap of 800K votes to catch-up pic.twitter.com/nyR39xG3LT

— 𝗗𝗿 𝗔𝗵𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗞𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗯𝗶, 𝕆𝔾𝕎 (@DrAhmedKalebi) August 12, 2022

[Githunguri]

You got it wrong.

Azimio has governors of course they'll win mombasa and KK counties also controls national assembly...UDA only has Senate.

[RV Pundit]

Once we get confirmed data - senate, governors, women rep, mps.

You got it wrong.

Azimio has governors of course they'll win mombasa and KK counties also controls national assembly...UDA only has Senate.

[RV Pundit]

This one is how it looks like - I was suprised by earlier one that had ODM at 88 mps.

Ruto's UDA leads the race to control of National Assembly... Kenya Kwanza also ahead on Coalitions count!  https://t.co/NJx3zxXVX1 pic.twitter.com/66sCbQtzP7

— Oliver Mathenge (@OliverMathenge) August 13, 2022

[RV Pundit]

With Kiambu, Nairobi and Turkana still pending, Kenya Kwanza parties have captured the most Woman Rep seats.

Click a county on the map on this link to see who has been elected Woman Rep.
https://t.co/geWQo0G0yX pic.twitter.com/Zk9kscIr0W

— Oliver Mathenge (@OliverMathenge) August 13, 2022

The COUNTY WOMEN MP PREDICTION

Party   
UDA   26
ODM   10
WIPER   4
JUBILEE   2
UDM   2
FORDK   1
KANU   1
OTHER   1
   47


The COUNTY WOMEN MP
CODE   COUNTY   PREDICTED WINNER PARTY
1   MOMBASA   ODM
2   KWALE   UDA
3   KILIFI   ODM
4   TANA RIVER   UDA
5   LAMU   UDA
6   TAITA TAVETA   UDA
7   GARISSA   UDM
8   WAJIR   OTHER
9   MANDERA   UDM
10   MARSABIT   UDA
11   ISIOLO   JUBILEE
12   MERU   UDA
13   THARAKA-NITHI   UDA
14   EMBU   UDA
15   KITUI   WIPER
16   MACHAKOS   WIPER
17   MAKUENI   WIPER
18   NYANDARUA   UDA
19   NYERI   UDA
20   KIRINYAGA   UDA
21   MURANG'A   UDA
22   KIAMBU   UDA
23   TURKANA   UDA
24   WEST POKOT   UDA
25   SAMBURU   KANU
26   TRANS NZOIA   UDA
27   UASIN GISHU   UDA
28   ELGEYO/MARAKWET   UDA
29   NANDI   UDA
30   BARINGO   UDA
31   LAIKIPIA   UDA
32   NAKURU   UDA
33   NAROK   UDA
34   KAJIADO   UDA
35   KERICHO   UDA
36   BOMET   UDA
37   KAKAMEGA   ODM
38   VIHIGA   ODM
39   BUNGOMA   FORDK
40   BUSIA   ODM
41   SIAYA   ODM
42   KISUMU   ODM
43   HOMA BAY   ODM
44   MIGORI   ODM
45   KISII   WIPER
46   NYAMIRA   JUBILEE
47   NAIROBI CITY   ODM
Total      47

[RV Pundit]

With Nairobi declared, Kenya Kwanza now holds 21 of the Governors while Azimio has 20.

MAP: How control of county governments is shaping up for Raila and Ruto https://t.co/vNK4aFcrXg pic.twitter.com/pIxdlFTAWg

— Oliver Mathenge (@OliverMathenge) August 14, 2022

The Final Governor Race Prediction
Party   
UDA   24
ODM   8
UDM   3
WIPER   3
JUBILEE   2
ANC   2
FORDK   2
UPA   1
INDEPENDENT   2
TOTAL   47

CODE   COUNTY   PREDICTED WINNER PARTY
1   MOMBASA   UDA
2   KWALE   UDA
3   KILIFI   ODM
4   TANA RIVER   UDA
5   LAMU   ANC
6   TAITA TAVETA   JUBILEE
7   GARISSA   ODM
8   WAJIR   JUBILEE
9   MANDERA   UDM
10   MARSABIT   UDM
11   ISIOLO   INDEPENDENT
12   MERU   UDA
13   THARAKA-NITHI   UDA
14   EMBU   UDA
15   KITUI   WIPER
16   MACHAKOS   WIPER
17   MAKUENI   WIPER
18   NYANDARUA   UDA
19   NYERI   UDA
20   KIRINYAGA   UDA
21   MURANG'A   UDA
22   KIAMBU   UDA
23   TURKANA   UDA
24   WEST POKOT   UDA
25   SAMBURU   UDA
26   TRANS NZOIA   FORDK
27   UASIN GISHU   UDA
28   ELGEYO/MARAKWET   UDA
29   NANDI   UDA
30   BARINGO   UDA
31   LAIKIPIA   UDA
32   NAKURU   UDA
33   NAROK   UDA
34   KAJIADO   ODM
35   KERICHO   UDA
36   BOMET   UDA
37   KAKAMEGA   ANC
38   VIHIGA   ODM
39   BUNGOMA   FORDK
40   BUSIA   ODM
41   SIAYA   UDM
42   KISUMU   ODM
43   HOMA BAY   INDEPENDENT
44   MIGORI   ODM
45   KISII   ODM
46   NYAMIRA   UPA
47   NAIROBI CITY   UDA
Total      47