Kingi finally show up some mettle

[RV Pundit]

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PAA supporters in Mombasa today heading for a mega rally.#KuraKwaRuto pic.twitter.com/KrKFHJcKTl

— Kaslim (@TheKaslim) August 4, 2022

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[Nefertiti]

Kingi is worse naked king than Mdvd. He cannot hold a candle to Joho and Mvurya. His role has been to fight with Jumwa in Kilifi.. basically intra-KK squabbles.

Upto now polls have PAA crew in Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale at 2% or thereabout.

Jumwa remains MIA from Ruto rallies as Mung'aro run circles around her. Compared to Kingi sweeping victory in 2013-17... they should be working together but nope.

[RV Pundit]

Yeap uzuri ruto is smart - his contract has performance targets. He should have sacrificed PAA for Senate Speaker. His target is simple. Ruto has to score 50% in Kilifi.MaDVD the same. Sonko the same.

They fail - Ruto will give them anything he want

Kingi is worse naked king than Mdvd. He cannot hold a candle to Joho and Mvurya. His role has been to fight with Jumwa in Kilifi.. basically intra-KK squabbles.

Upto now polls have PAA crew in Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale at 2% or thereabout.

Jumwa remains MIA from Ruto rallies as Mung'aro run circles around her. Compared to Kingi sweeping victory in 2013-17... they should.be workin together but nope.

[Nefertiti]

I doubt the target story cause obviously none of them will nick it including Mdvd-Weta 70%. Kingi cannot deliver anything.. the 30% Ruto is getting for himself.

The targets are PR the actual MOUs am sure are different.

Yeap uzuri ruto is smart - his contract has performance targets. He should have sacrificed PAA for Senate Speaker. His target is simple. Ruto has to score 50% in Kilifi.MaDVD the same. Sonko the same.

They fail - Ruto will give them anything he want

[RV Pundit]

Weta will get it. He will become powerful. Lazy maDVD has to deliver Kakamega and Vihiga to be considered a stakeholders otherwise Gachagua will not accept to give space.

I doubt the target story cause obviously none of them will nick it including Mdvd-Weta 70%. Kingi cannot deliver anything.. the 30% Ruto is getting for himself.

The targets are PR the actual MOUs am sure are different.

Yeap uzuri ruto is smart - his contract has performance targets. He should have sacrificed PAA for Senate Speaker. His target is simple. Ruto has to score 50% in Kilifi.MaDVD the same. Sonko the same.

They fail - Ruto will give them anything he want

[Nefertiti]

Bungoma 70% ni ndoto. Weta can score that for senator only... otherwise indicators are a fairly even split.

TN Bukusu are even worse.

Weta will get it. He will become powerful. Lazy maDVD has to deliver Kakamega and Vihiga to be considered a stakeholders otherwise Gachagua will not accept to give space.

I doubt the target story cause obviously none of them will nick it including Mdvd-Weta 70%. Kingi cannot deliver anything.. the 30% Ruto is getting for himself.

The targets are PR the actual MOUs am sure are different.

Yeap uzuri ruto is smart - his contract has performance targets. He should have sacrificed PAA for Senate Speaker. His target is simple. Ruto has to score 50% in Kilifi.MaDVD the same. Sonko the same.

They fail - Ruto will give them anything he want

[RV Pundit]

Bungoma 80% is possible. Remember margin of error in dissaggregated national polls is 20%.  Trust MOASS. Ruto started Bungoma at 30%...10% being kalenjin...3% kikuyus. Tranzoia RUto is starting at 40%. Weta will bring in 50%.

So both Bungoma and Tranzoia - Ruto will play 80%.

Bungoma 70% ni ndoto. Weta can score that for senator only... otherwise indicators are a fairly even split.

TN Bukusu are even worse.

[Nefertiti]

  That is such hubris but we will see soon. Polls say Ruto 2-1 lead in Bungoma ONLY .. TN is swing. Kakamega and down is Raila.

[RV Pundit]

So you believe the polls when they tell you Bomet or kericho Raila has 25 percent and Ruto 70 percent.

PLEASE learn these things before you use big words like HUBRIS.

Margin of error in county is HUGE 25 plus.

IRS with 20,000 samples - that can give you good county numbers - ingine it only USEFUL at national level - not in counties.

Mizani is also good - because they do heavy samples per county.

So generally if opinion say Raila will score 20% in Kericho - and we know that is 5% in reality - and Ruto is 95% - use that as formulae.

Whenever Ruto is leading like Bungoma at 67% - just add him 13% to make it 80%.

In Ukambani if Ruto is doing on average 40% - reduce it to 25%.

That is what I try to do in MOASS - try to find a formulae to the madness - using well KNOWN FACTS

That is such hubris but we will see soon. Polls say Ruto 2-1 lead in Bungoma ONLY .. TN is swing. Kakamega and down is Raila.

[RV Pundit]

See Raila rally in Kilifi - very poorly attended. Kingi will deliver.

Meanwhile Ruto has given Aisha a chopper for last minute campaigns

[Nefertiti]

Your round figures are based on false UDA wave. Luhya are not Kalenjin or Gema. Only Wiper maybe has such grip on Kamba. Weta is Gideon - can only get his own vote. Natembeya and such newbies have some hope despite big Kalenjin diaspora cause Bukusu are swing vote.

So you believe the polls when they tell you Bomet or kericho Raila has 25 percent and Ruto 70 percent.

PLEASE learn these things before you use big words like HUBRIS.

Margin of error in county is HUGE 25 plus.

IRS with 20,000 samples - that can give you good county numbers - ingine it only USEFUL at national level - not in counties.

Mizani is also good - because they do heavy samples per county.

So generally if opinion say Raila will score 20% in Kericho - and we know that is 5% in reality - and Ruto is 95% - use that as formulae.

Whenever Ruto is leading like Bungoma at 67% - just add him 13% to make it 80%.

In Ukambani if Ruto is doing on average 40% - reduce it to 25%.

That is what I try to do in MOASS - try to find a formulae to the madness - using well KNOWN FACTS

That is such hubris but we will see soon. Polls say Ruto 2-1 lead in Bungoma ONLY .. TN is swing. Kakamega and down is Raila.

[Nefertiti]

i saw you loved this poll that give Ruto 67% Luhya.. including Vihiga

Dr William Ruto has a clear lead against Raila Odinga in Mt Kenya, Rift valley and Western Kenya. #DiscoveryElectionsPoll pic.twitter.com/mE39jfWMHU

— @arab_balala (@its_Kiptoo) August 3, 2022

?s=20&t=L464plOuIN8W5OThWoBW1A

[RV Pundit]

Raila has totally hidden kilifi rally - there 200 people like in Kiambu.

He is going to lose Kilifi, Kwale, Mombasa is 50-50 with Tana River & Lamu.

He is ahead in Taita Taveta.