Remember you had 1.5M gap btw NASA and Jubilee - or almost 10%
Gaining Uhuru 30% of Mt kenya - gives you that 1.5m - about 9% (Entire GEMA population is 23% - but voting power is 28%).
VERY BRILLIANT STRATEGY upto that point.You're playing NECK TO NECK with Ruto.
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BUT BUT BUT your forget one thing.
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Now every vote Raila loses - is Ruto winning margin - your own BUKUSU are the ones handing Ruto PORK.
They are going to give Ruto more than 0.5M votes from Bungoma-Tranzoia-Kakamega and diaspora.
Next Coast will add Ruto another 0.5m.
Next Ukambani will add Ruto 0.3m.
Ruto might underperform Raila slighly in Gusii. I think their cousins the Maragoli will balance out.
You see that is how you lose election.
Last time Baba got max. 2% of Gema... a mere 80k votes. This time 30% of Gema is 1.2m votes, and he will get closer to 1.5m.
Any loss Baba has in his traditional strongholds (very little beyond what Jubilee may have clawed last time) will be compensated by an almost full basket in North Eastern. Add onto that over 80% of Kisii which recovers the purported loss in Nyamira where Jubilee apparently got 55% against ODM (a clear vote theft here for sure); more than covers for any loss.
I urge you to start accepting the eventuality unfolding right in front of your eyes.
How about how Jubilee performed in Coast Luhys Land and Ukambani land vis a vis hoe UDA will perform.
Aug 10th Utachekea Chooni....
A huge silent base in Gema land will vote Baba. 30% of Gema is a straight win for Baba; he only had 3% of Gema overall in the last elections.
You are day dreaming. Raila's NASA strongholds of western and coast have shifted to Ruto. About 2.5 million votes are out of Raila's hands. If He get 1.5 million mountain votes, which I doubt, he will be short almost 2 million to catch Ruto. The only way Raila will be a threat to Ruto's massive nationwide support is if he manages to hit 55% in the mountain. Anything under 50% is kaput! Ruto is wildly popular in Kenya!