After all bribery and intimidation - the best they can do is 26 mps and senators

[Nefertiti]

Noway - just to be clear, are you suggesting majority of Kalenjin MPs are not with Mobutu?

My point is being with Ruto is neither here nor there . Mps can decide to be pro Ruto or not , it wont affect voting patterns of  2022 significantly . So using a following of elected MPs to determinate 2022 general election is factually incorrect .

Are majority Kalenjin MPs with Mobutu or not? Swala nyeti hili. It is not random at all but driven by 1)ground popularity 2)money 3)machinery. 90% of Luo MPs are in ODM because of Raila - if it was neither here nor there (random) they would also be in Wiper, Kanu, Jubilee, Chap Chap not just ODM.

[Nefertiti]

Ps - 90% of Kalenjin MPs are/will be in hustler party. Most will lose in the primaries and will not come back. It is not rocket science.

Causation vs correlation

[RV Pundit]

It all depend on how support for mp/governors is acquired - if through bribery or intimidation - it doesn't reflect the ground. As we head towards 2022 this will be very clear. Most of those mps will abandon BBI/Wanjohi.

Ps - 90% of Kalenjin MPs are/will be in hustler party. Most will lose in the primaries and will not come back. It is not rocket science.

Causation vs correlation

[Nefertiti]

This is a better argument than Noway tail-chasing. If you have fair game - MPs gravitate to the popular party. There is lots of intimidation by Uhuru and bribery by Mobutu. In strongholds RV, Luo it much clearer. By elections of course are best indicator short of general elections.

Churn rate will still be universally high regardless of parties and factions.

It all depend on how support for mp/governors is acquired - if through bribery or intimidation - it doesn't reflect the ground. As we head towards 2022 this will be very clear. Most of those mps will abandon BBI/Wanjohi.

Ps - 90% of Kalenjin MPs are/will be in hustler party. Most will lose in the primaries and will not come back. It is not rocket science.

Causation vs correlation

[RV Pundit]

I am glad you're nearly getting there - all the MOAS/opinion polls - ultimate aim is to measure the feeling on the ground. The influencer has to effictively influence before we assign votes or grounds. You don't automatically get votes unless it was Raila who has Luos on his call and perk.

I think GEMa there is a lot of bribery/intimidation at the top - while the bottom - judging even from social media or facebook - is nearly anti-Raila/BBI/Uhuru/handshake.

Ruto doesn't own bribery - Uhuru is equally a bribing machine - and so are likes of Matiangi-Kibicho - which huge slash fund. Gideon Moi too. Raila and Kibaki dont bribe - they are not graduate from moi school of african politics.

And then you have guys who want to be near the power (gov) so they can get tenders, employ relatives, supporters.

Then of course you know there a lot being threaten with prosecution for being seen with Ruto.

Without any opinon poll - you can watch social media forums.
 

This is a better argument than Noway tail-chasing. If you have fair game - MPs gravitate to the popular party. There is lots of intimidation by Uhuru and bribery by Mobutu. In strongholds RV, Luo it much clearer. By elections of course are best indicator short of general elections.

Churn rate will still be universally high regardless of parties and factions.

[Nowayhaha]

Robina how many of the pictured politicians are now with Raila ?
Now yo have run away from the narrative of elected politicians to opinion polls .

This pretty much the pro-Uhuru/kieleweke/BBI in mt kenya - that are going to face hostile homeground.