2022 election is repeat of 2017 almost

[RV Pundit]

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Voter Preferences
Raila will make gains in 10 Mt Kenya counties where he scored 1% to now anything from 15% to 30% - gain of 15-30%.Ruto will make gains in 10 NASA counties - where Jubilee got on average 10-40% but will increase to 30% to 70% - gain of 30%.

Population wise - Ruto 10 gainers have almost similar demographics to GEMA

Jubilee 2017 performed dismally in these counties - where Ruto will get significant gain with acquisition Weta, Madvd, Kingi, Nanok,Muthama from NASA (now Azimio)

1) Kakamega - 11% - which had 750K
2) Bungoma - 30%-(10% being Kalenjin of Mt elgon) - had 550k
3) Kilifi - 15% - had 500K
4) Mombasa- 29% - had 550k
5) Tranzoia -44% - with Kalenjin being almost 35 %- had 340k
6) Kwale - 23% - hae 280K votes
7) Turkana - 39% - had 190k votes
Busia - 12% - with 400K plus votes
9) Vihiga - 10% - had 270K plus votes now
10) Machakos - 19% - had 620k

GEMA big ones are Kiambu (1.2M - no-gema at 10% plus), Nakuru(950K - with Kalenjin at 35%-luha/luo at 15%), Meru(720K), Muranga (580K), Nyeri (450k) - rest are 350k - except Laikipia(70 percent Kikuyu) & Tharaka at 250K.

The rest of counties will see small variation here and there - small gains here and there- small losses here and there.

Turnout.
The only major change in turnout anticipated is muted turnout in GEMA - it will probably be 10 percent down - as they dont have a dog in the fight and fear of Raila PORK is not elevated as always.Kalenjin in their 7 majority counties (3 minority) will jack up turnout by 10% from around 78 percent to 88 percent - which matches Luo turnout - and should take care of GEMA.

When all is said and done - EXPECT no change in this election.

It will be 2017 redux - 45 percent verus 55 percent.

If you support Azimio - and you have deep state - then you will have no server to blame or algorithm - unless truly rigging use to happen

But it sure will be usual story - 45 versus 55.

[Pajero]

Ruto is loosing close to 2M votes directly to Uhuru from the 8.2 they got in 2017.That puts him back to 6M.Raila gains 2M from his 2017 numbers of 6.8.That gives him 8.8M.its that simple.Stop the count.

[RV Pundit]

So he was not rigged after all?

Ruto is loosing close to 2M votes directly to Uhuru from the 8.2 they got in 2017.That puts him back to 6M.Raila gains 2M from his 2017 numbers of 6.8.That gives him 8.8M.its that simple.Stop the count.

[Nowayhaha]

Ruto will improve By 2 % -3%  from Uhuru Tally in 2017.
He will settle at 56% .

[Nowayhaha]

Where do you get the illusion that GEMA can vote for Raila ?
Aug 10 you will be no where to be seen . You will go underground together with Ribena.

Ruto is loosing close to 2M votes directly to Uhuru from the 8.2 they got in 2017.That puts him back to 6M.Raila gains 2M from his 2017 numbers of 6.8.That gives him 8.8M.its that simple.Stop the count.

[RV Pundit]

It possible. The 4% improvement Uhuru got in 2017 was due to Ruto hard-nosed campaigns in 1st term. It all depend on GEMA. If Raila doesnt crack GEMA like is increasingly looking then Ruto will improve 2-3% to 56-57%.

We need to see more GEMA numbers. Mizani is only one doing a thorough job by polling heavily in counties.

Ruto will improve By 2 % -3%  from Uhuru Tally in 2017.
He will settle at 56% .

[sema]

I'm concerned about why ruto is complaining about one million votes disappearing? and if he believes that, what does he intend to do about it? or has he already concluded that this thing is rigged and will therefore call out the warriors?

[RV Pundit]

I'm concerned about why ruto is complaining about one million votes disappearing? and if he believes that, what does he intend to do about it? or has he already concluded that this thing is rigged and will therefore call out thwarriors?

Important thing is Ruto need counter intelligence on the desperado...so their plans can be revealed and scuttled... unfortunately there has to be a lot of shooting in the wild to get the haunted desperado out in the open..all in all intelligence aka parallel nis is most important..to scuttle any such plans.You seen gov so desperate to reveal fake nis polls nd mucheru rallying the troop by overtly promising rigging.But the depth of hustler nation will shock them like it did moi in 2002..The desperado in shallow state together with chief mlevi have found the toughest nuts and their day of reckoning has cometh

[KenyanPlato]

Go to sleep pundit

[RV Pundit]

Kulala ni wewe - I am on sabatical - hacking IEBC system

The voter register has been interfered with!
Homa Bay Town Constituency is showed to have 51,000 voters just as it was in 2017; the over 10,000 votes registered since 2017 cannot be accounted for!@IEBCKenya MUST explain this, correct the register and reassure Kenyans

— Hon. George Peter Kaluma, CBS. MP. (@gpdkaluma) June 1, 2022

Go to sleep pundit