Governor Nyoro surprise win in Kiambu

[Githunguri]

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Kiambu has twelve constituencies.

022 KIAMBU 111 GATUNDU SOUTH 75,858 140
022 KIAMBU 112 GATUNDU NORTH 67,598 126
022 KIAMBU 113 JUJA 114,761 184
022 KIAMBU 114 THIKA TOWN 147,323 230
022 KIAMBU 115 RUIRU 159,337 240
022 KIAMBU 116 GITHUNGURI 99,384 174
022 KIAMBU 117 KIAMBU 80,730 132
022 KIAMBU 118 KIAMBAA 95,413 154
022 KIAMBU 119 KABETE 85,446
022 KIAMBU 120 KIKUYU 91,157 149
022 KIAMBU 121 LIMURU 87,258 153
022 KIAMBU 122 LARI 76,655 142

(A) Kuria comes from Gatundu which has total 130K votes.

(B) Jungle bedrock is in Juja and Thika where he used to own quarries and processing nuts.They have 260k votes

(C) Kabogo comes from Ruiru.His father was a chief in Ruiru back in the 1970s but their origin is Githunguri constituency.Both Ruiru and Githunguri have 260k votes.

(D) Wamatangi is Kabete born while Nyoro I think is from Ndeiya or those Kikuyu sides.These two basically come from the same region.Kiambaa Kabete Lari Limuru region where these two come from has bout 330k votes.

Battle ground is Kiambu and Kiambaa which have 170k votes.

Nyoro got 240K votes in 2013 gubernatorial race against Kabogo 480k.Nyoro ran on a NARC ticket against the TNA three piece suit.That was maybe about 20% or so.He is not a political greenhorn.

Raila got 7% in 2017 presidential vote kiambu county.Turnout was 83% I think.

Governor Nyoro start with the Raila vote advantage of 10% against his competitors.He may get lots of votes around kikuyu kabete and limuru.If they go 5050 with matangi he has second advantage.In Gatundu Uhuru still has some support there so it's matangi Nyoro and kuria 30:30:30 which gives him third advantage.Jungle takes thika.Kabogo takes ruiru and Githunguri.Kabogo and jungle go 30:30:30 with matangi in Juja due to UDA advantage.

Nyoro wins.

[RV Pundit]

Politics is not analyzed mechanically. Human as ARE NOT machines. As much as regionalism is important - it not the most important. Wamatangi by fact that he won UDA nomination despite joining the last minute shows he has the Kiambu popular vote. Start from and whittle down from there.

In short Wamatangi will carry the day for simple reason he already won UDA nomination which most popular party in Kiambu.

Nyoro as incumbent as twice as hard a job unless he deliver - which doesnt seem the case.

I expect 2nd to Kabogo.

I dont see Moses Kuria last whole hog...he is using Kiambu as negotiation point - and is more interested in following Ruto around. When Sudi and Ruto visited him in Dubai they must have ink a deal...that will see him as minister as minimum.

The 3rd will either be Jungle or Nyoro.

Jungle messed by being 50-50 - mara UDA mara independent mara UDA mara independent - bad signals.

Nyoro is seen as impostor- people elected Waititu - and will come last.

Understand the emotions of politics....this why Sakaja is winning Nairobi...Sonko Mombasa.

Dont rush to tribal maths or sub regional maths or sub-ethnic.

Start with candidates FIRST...otherwise such mechanical analysis assume every random Kikuyu will be popular.

So Kiambu.... understand the VIBE - what is overriding goal of the residents - it appears to me first to punish JUBILEE, UHURU, MAMA NGINA AND ANYONE associated with it. NOW ADD RAILA.
..for whatever reason residents feel disappointed. Therefore associating with Jubilee and Raila will start  Negative majority of votes.

Kiambu has twelve constituencies.

022 KIAMBU 111 GATUNDU SOUTH 75,858 140
022 KIAMBU 112 GATUNDU NORTH 67,598 126
022 KIAMBU 113 JUJA 114,761 184
022 KIAMBU 114 THIKA TOWN 147,323 230
022 KIAMBU 115 RUIRU 159,337 240
022 KIAMBU 116 GITHUNGURI 99,384 174
022 KIAMBU 117 KIAMBU 80,730 132
022 KIAMBU 118 KIAMBAA 95,413 154
022 KIAMBU 119 KABETE 85,446
022 KIAMBU 120 KIKUYU 91,157 149
022 KIAMBU 121 LIMURU 87,258 153
022 KIAMBU 122 LARI 76,655 142

(A) Kuria comes from Gatundu which has total 130K votes.

(B) Jungle bedrock is in Juja and Thika where he used to own quarries and processing nuts.They have 260k votes

(C) Kabogo comes from Ruiru.His father was a chief in Ruiru back in the 1970s but their origin is Githunguri constituency.Both Ruiru and Githunguri have 260k votes.

(D) Wamatangi is Kabete born while Nyoro I think is from Ndeiya or those Kikuyu sides.These two basically come from the same region.Kiambaa Kabete Lari Limuru region where these two come from has bout 330k votes.

Battle ground is Kiambu and Kiambaa which have 170k votes.

Nyoro got 240K votes in 2013 gubernatorial race against Kabogo 480k.Nyoro ran on a NARC ticket against the TNA three piece suit.That was maybe about 20% or so.He is not a political greenhorn.

Raila got 7% in 2017 presidential vote kiambu county.Turnout was 83% I think.

Governor Nyoro start with the Raila vote advantage of 10% against his competitors.He may get lots of votes around kikuyu kabete and limuru.If they go 5050 with matangi he has second advantage.In Gatundu Uhuru still has some support there so it's matangi Nyoro and kuria 30:30:30 which gives him third advantage.Jungle takes thika.Kabogo takes ruiru and Githunguri.Kabogo and jungle go 30:30:30 with matangi in Juja due to UDA advantage.

Nyoro wins.

[Nefertiti]

Wamatangi likely to win yes. Due to party and Nyoro incompetence - in politics and job performance. So party and candidate. I see no big grief against Kenyatta there - that is your jaundiced view you project all over. Dude scorned your man Ruto -- but Kiambu ni wakikuyu sio wakale.

Equally Sonko is not leading in Mombasa and I don't see him easily beating Nassir at 40% ab initio. There is also no popular intention to punish ODM in Mombasa. Bad parallel to draw.

[Nefertiti]

your anti-Uhuru inobjectivity is a big minus. Folks will surprise you. There is a briefcase poll saying Kihika, Jumwa, Mbarire, Kidero wanakunywa maji. I agree with it


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/gender/karua-boosts-female-aspirants-poll-ratings-3829092

[Nowayhaha]

Sonko is winning Mombasa Hands down. Even Luo Odm in Mombasa have a soft spot for him. If Raila does not whip them well some of them  might be inclined to vote for Sonko Governor and Raila President similar to what happened in Nairobi Senator elections in 2013.
Robina you live in your own world. Reality on ground is different .

Wamatangi likely to win yes. Due to party and Nyoro incompetence - in politics and job performance. So party and candidate. I see no big grief against Kenyatta there - that is your jaundiced view you project all over. Dude scorned your man Ruto -- but Kiambu ni wakikuyu sio wakale.

Equally Sonko is not leading in Mombasa and I don't see him easily beating Nassir at 40% ab initio. There is also no popular intention to punish ODM in Mombasa. Bad parallel to draw.

[Nowayhaha]

Ati Kihika , Mbarire, Jumwa wanakunywa maji ? Wacha bangi Kunywa Ribena.
You used to sing elected Mps Senators etc then they all dedected to UDA last minute including your favourite Kingi and Mutua then you went mute on elected politicians . Now you are singing opinion polls  opinion polls where as all of them are bought . Come Aug 09 utachelea Chooni.

your anti-Uhuru inobjectivity is a big minus. Folks will surprise you. There is a briefcase poll saying Kihika, Jumwa, Mbarire, Kidero wanakunywa maji. I agree with it


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/gender/karua-boosts-female-aspirants-poll-ratings-3829092

[Githunguri]

a) Jungle lost for three reasons..He was not well know as Matangi,Jungle is only known around Juja,Kiambu and Gatundu North.Flawed nominations and anger from macadamia and avocado farmers because he is a broker.Now you will see a Kalenjin fool arguing with me.

b) UDA is overrated.Out of 1.4MN registered voters in Kiambu only 15% came out to vote.I would exepect if it was the most popular party for it to have a larger turnout looking at the stakes in the nominations.If you look at Kiambaa Juja Muguga they were 50:50 UDA Jubilee.So what will change this time?NOTHING.

c) Raila got 7% in kiambu during 2017 elections.These were not Kikuyu voted but Luo Luhya Kamba.I expect more of them to push that number to 10% this time.

d) If 60% Kikuyu vote in Kiambu is divided between Kabogo Matangi Jungle and Kuria while Uhuru gets 40% with his Jubilee and 10% Raila tribes.Nyoro wins.If Uhuru managed to get 30% Kikuyu vote in 2002.I don't see how he can't pull that this time.

e) Majority people from Gatundu N & S will vote Moses Kuria and James Nyoro..The battle there is between Uhuru and Kuria intact Jubilee MP candidates will win in those constituencies.In Juja Thika and Ruiru it will be between Jungle and Kabogo.In Lari Kabete Kikuyu Limuru it's between  matangi and Nyoro.

f) My prediction 100% right.IREVERSIBLE GUARANTEE

1) Nyoro.
2) Matangi.
3) Kabogo.
4) jungle.
5) Kuria.

Instead of stupid arguments.Pin that thread.I put 100% on it.

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru has chicken out and left Jubilee aspirants on their own devices. Martha can come to your Nyoro rescue. I dont see any governor or senator or women rep surviving UDA wave in entire Mt kenya - not even in Meru. Few Mps and MCas outside UDA will make it - but county is too big to make in unpopular party like Jubilee.

A survey by Mizani Africa shows that if elections were held today, Kimani Wamatangi would clinch the Kiambu Gubernatorial seat with 34.2% of the votes, followed by William Kabogo with 22.3% and the incumbent James Nyoro would come 3rd with 21.5% pic.twitter.com/6jwuCZl8aW

— Thika Town Today - 3T (@ThikaTowntoday) May 14, 2022

a) Jungle lost for three reasons..He was not well know as Matangi,Jungle is only known around Juja,Kiambu and Gatundu North.Flawed nominations and anger from macadamia and avocado farmers because he is a broker.Now you will see a Kalenjin fool arguing with me.

b) UDA is overrated.Out of 1.4MN registered voters in Kiambu only 15% came out to vote.I would exepect if it was the most popular party for it to have a larger turnout looking at the stakes in the nominations.If you look at Kiambaa Juja Muguga they were 50:50 UDA Jubilee.So what will change this time?NOTHING.

c) Raila got 7% in kiambu during 2017 elections.These were not Kikuyu voted but Luo Luhya Kamba.I expect more of them to push that number to 10% this time.

d) If 60% Kikuyu vote in Kiambu is divided between Kabogo Matangi Jungle and Kuria while Uhuru gets 40% with his Jubilee and 10% Raila tribes.Nyoro wins.If Uhuru managed to get 30% Kikuyu vote in 2002.I don't see how he can't pull that this time.

e) Majority people from Gatundu N & S will vote Moses Kuria and James Nyoro..The battle there is between Uhuru and Kuria intact Jubilee MP candidates will win in those constituencies.In Juja Thika and Ruiru it will be between Jungle and Kabogo.In Lari Kabete Kikuyu Limuru it's between  matangi and Nyoro.

f) My prediction 100% right.IREVERSIBLE GUARANTEE

1) Nyoro.
2) Matangi.
3) Kabogo.
4) jungle.
5) Kuria.

Instead of stupid arguments.Pin that thread.I put 100% on it.

[RV Pundit]

Kihika is more than shoe-in - the rest we can argue. Kihika should already be busy forming her goverment. Lee should be busy looking for another job.

your anti-Uhuru inobjectivity is a big minus. Folks will surprise you. There is a briefcase poll saying Kihika, Jumwa, Mbarire, Kidero wanakunywa maji. I agree with it


https://nation.africa/kenya/news/gender/karua-boosts-female-aspirants-poll-ratings-3829092