Reason Karua got 43,000 votes in 2013.

[Githunguri]

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Martha Karua.

43K-2013 Presidential Race.
120K-2017 Gubernatorial race.
She got 43K vote because of fighting Uhuru in 2013.She lost supported Uhuru in 2017 and got 120k votes against Waiguru 160K vote due to Six piece voting.Now that she has inherited Uhuru political base in GEMA through his blessing.She will give Raila 60%.

Uhuru Kenyatta.

1997 Gatundu South-10k Votes Vs Moses Mwihia 22k Votes.
2002 Presidential election-250k Kikuyu vote Vs Kibaki 650K.
2005 Referendum-90K GEMA vote against Kibaki Millions.
2007-00
2013-4MN GEMA Vote.

As you can see from both,Uhuru lost in 1997-2007 because of opposing Kibaki against the common enemy Moi while Karua lost in 2013 because of opposing Uhuru against the common enemy ICC.After she mended fences with kenyatta in 2017 and Uhuru annointed her days ago,Her popularity has soared.

Now,you will meet a Kalenjin who will tell you Uhuru doesn't have support in GEMA.That is a lie.He got 27% in 2002 while a political toddler.In the previously concluded by elections in kiambaa juja muguga the reason was 50UDA 50JUBILEE.Now Karua has inherited that 40% from Kenyatta,The more she sells herself as GEMA hero because of he4 tough image in 2007/8 The more she attains GEMA support and peaks at 65%-70%.

The strategy now is to demonize Ruto to make him look like Moi and reminding GEMA who Rigathi was in Moi gov which makes Gachagua and Ruto pork in GEMA.

It's downhill now for Ruto.He is being kept buy in GEMA.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Good luck trying to demonize Ruto,you think mlima doesn't know Ruto,Mzito paid off his debt when he supported gatheca twice, Rigathigi is the weakest link in Rutos establishment I don't see how he can be demonized more than what is known already.
In short am saying mlima has already made its decision many months ago,mlima people cant be easily flipped its too little too late.
Karua is trying but it's like pushing an elephant 🐘 on the good side Karua has come back to national limelight funny thing he has excited luos and luhya most
Try telling church wamama about baba na mama those are the staunchest Ruto suporters,they will exorcise whatever demons they think you have, honestly  I don't know which Kura Karua is looking for.

[Githunguri]

Good luck trying to demonize Ruto,you think mlima doesn't know Ruto,Mzito paid off his debt when he supported gatheca twice, Rigathigi is the weakest link in Rutos establishment I don't see how he can be demonized more than what is known already.
In short am saying mlima has already made its decision many months ago,mlima people cant be easily flipped its too little too late.
Karua is trying but it's like pushing an elephant 🐘 on the good side Karua has come back to national limelight funny thing he has excited luos and luhya most
Try telling church wamama about baba na mama those are the staunchest Ruto suporters,they will exorcise whatever demons they think you have, honestly  I don't know which Kura Karua is looking for.

Idiot.

[RV Pundit]

She is swimming against the current once again.. politics is dynamic.. uhuru was supported because Kikuyus felt kibaki dropped the ball in 2007 and uhuru stepped up to defend the community.That plus nailing a peace deal with Ruto or kalenjin made him popular.Now he has become so unpopular, jubilee so dead and name it for embracing Raila and bringing misfortune including dead economy, corona.. Martha once again has made a huge blunder.She is selling the hated Raila and she has unpleasant job.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Martha Karua.

43K-2013 Presidential Race.
120K-2017 Gubernatorial race.
She got 43K vote because of fighting Uhuru in 2013.She lost supported Uhuru in 2017 and got 120k votes against Waiguru 160K vote due to Six piece voting.Now that she has inherited Uhuru political base in GEMA through his blessing.She will give Raila 60%.

Uhuru Kenyatta.

1997 Gatundu South-10k Votes Vs Moses Mwihia 22k Votes.
2002 Presidential election-250k Kikuyu vote Vs Kibaki 650K.
2005 Referendum-90K GEMA vote against Kibaki Millions.
2007-00
2013-4MN GEMA Vote.

As you can see from both,Uhuru lost in 1997-2007 because of opposing Kibaki against the common enemy Moi while Karua lost in 2013 because of opposing Uhuru against the common enemy ICC.After she mended fences with kenyatta in 2017 and Uhuru annointed her days ago,Her popularity has soared.

Now,you will meet a Kalenjin who will tell you Uhuru doesn't have support in GEMA.That is a lie.He got 27% in 2002 while a political toddler.In the previously concluded by elections in kiambaa juja muguga the reason was 50UDA 50JUBILEE.Now Karua has inherited that 40% from Kenyatta,The more she sells herself as GEMA hero because of he4 tough image in 2007/8 The more she attains GEMA support and peaks at 65%-70%.

The strategy now is to demonize Ruto to make him look like Moi and reminding GEMA who Rigathi was in Moi gov which makes Gachagua and Ruto pork in GEMA.

It's downhill now for Ruto.He is being kept buy in GEMA.

Uhuru amewacha Raila kwa mataa as expected. There is nothing Karua can do except tell Raila to accept the results, as in Linda Katiba. Obviously, Ruto will not get the votes like Uhuru or Kibaki in the mountain, but he will make it up outside the mountain in a big way. Ruto is the most known politician in Kenya, especially among the church people, women, nduti folk, Gema, Kalenjins, all the people in the 47 counties. He is the only person that cannot be defined or demonized! Matharao ticket will lose this elections by miles. I expect NDP/LDP era type loss. Mvurya, Kingi and Mijikenda wamejipanga same as Bukusus/Maragolis in Bungoma/Kakamega/Busia/Transzoia. The only hope for Raila is now wakamba but they are not looking good either. Zoea President William Ruto mapema!

[Githunguri]

2002 Presidential election.
(1) 1992-1998 GEMA gets evicted in Rift Valley.
(2) 1992-2002 GEMA Kalenjin rivalry.
(3) 2002-Kalenjins support Uhuru.
(4) 2002- 30%GEMA support Uhuru in PORK election.

Uhuru managed 30%GEMA vote while in the same political camp with Moi whom GEMA hated.Recent by-elections in  GEMA juja muguga kiambaa went 50:50 with UDA.Now that he has transferred his support to Karua,She is past 50% Mark.Ruto will not get more than 40% GEMA vote because the older generation will vote Karua 80% while the younger generation will go 50:50.

[RV Pundit]

Very funny reasoning or lack of it.Uhuru in 2002 was running for PORK. Kiamba/name them by-elections those are kikuyus running against fellow Kikuyus. Martha is not running for PORK - she is a running mate.

When you replace your model of thinking with Raila - then Raila goes back to what opinion polls are saying highs of 10 -15 percent of Mt kenya.

Raila is the dude on ballot - Not Martha - Not Uhuru. Raila remain a hate figure in Mt kenya. That is difficult job.Uhuru has not made any significant gains in 5yrs. No miracle will happen in 2 months. Poor Martha cannot deliver miracles in two months and turn around Raila from hate figure...in fact the moment she and uhuru pushes Jakom...thye makes Ruto loved even more as protest.

In fact I dont see any serious upswing from Martha - I dont expect mt kenya candidate of Jubilee or Azimio to put Raila pictures or campaign for him - not even Kiraitu is stupid enough to do that.

2002 Presidential election.
(1) 1992-1998 GEMA gets evicted in Rift Valley.
(2) 1992-2002 GEMA Kalenjin rivalry.
(3) 2002-Kalenjins support Uhuru.
(4) 2002- 30%GEMA support Uhuru in PORK election.

Uhuru managed 30%GEMA vote while in the same political camp with Moi whom GEMA hated.Recent by-elections in  GEMA juja muguga kiambaa went 50:50 with UDA.Now that he has transferred his support to Karua,She is past 50% Mark.Ruto will not get more than 40% GEMA vote because the older generation will vote Karua 80% while the younger generation will go 50:50.

[Nefertiti]

2002 Presidential election.
(1) 1992-1998 GEMA gets evicted in Rift Valley.
(2) 1992-2002 GEMA Kalenjin rivalry.
(3) 2002-Kalenjins support Uhuru.
(4) 2002- 30%GEMA support Uhuru in PORK election.

Uhuru managed 30%GEMA vote while in the same political camp with Moi whom GEMA hated.Recent by-elections in  GEMA juja muguga kiambaa went 50:50 with UDA.Now that he has transferred his support to Karua,She is past 50% Mark.Ruto will not get more than 40% GEMA vote because the older generation will vote Karua 80% while the younger generation will go 50:50.

Boss i love your patience to dig up facts despite the lame attempt to delegitimize you as jaduong. What has really happened - Uhuru is not hated or afraid - he is strategic and weighs the pros of cons of very hard economic times. With covid, Russia maneno, global inflation incumbents are in trouble everywhere. Aussie PM just lost badly.

Before Martha Ruto was unopposed and the hubris made him pick his thug twin. With Karua one thing is certain: Gema is going to the wire. It is a swing zone but Ruto confuses himself with Kamau. The more it remains the focus the more the split will even out as people weigh their interests. It is a LUO vs a KALENJIN - both aliens - there is no Uhuru this time.

[RV Pundit]

If we took Mizani polls seriously - Karau has taken the undecided while Ruto support remain stubbornly high. Nobody who supported Ruto despite all the barrage about PEV/Uhuru/Wizi/all 5yrs of propagad  before is about to change their support because of Martha Karua. 

Ruto support in Mt kenya is direct injection. It's not like Kalenjin support for Uhuru in Jubilee - which was proxy support. That is big difference - and that is why the choice of running mate from mt Kenya - WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT - and which why we advised Raila to try lock Kamba vote.

Those who will vote Raila - were always going to vote Raila in Mt kenya. Ruto people are diehard LIWE LIWALO because Ruto long consumated his marriage with Mt kenya. Gachagua need Ruto. Mt kenya leaders need Ruto...Ruto doesnt need them...Ruto is a Mt kenya kingpin

What Martha will do is to solidfy the 15 percent who will support Raila - otherwise it remain fickle support - susceptible to last minute propaganda by Kurias and Gachaguas.

Before Martha Ruto was unopposed and the hubris made him pick his thug twin. With Karua one thing is certain: Gema is going to the wire. It is a swing zone but Ruto confuses himself with Kamau. The more it remains the focus the more the split will even out as people weigh their interests. It is a LUO vs a KALENJIN - both aliens - there is no Uhuru this time.

[Fairandbalanced]

Whoever is saying jubilee is dead is dead wrong. There are so many candidates who will run and win with a jubilee ticket in central Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

It alive in Northern Kenya and may become the leading party there - if the tabs of finance ministry are still running. Oparanya appointment has soiled that.
In Mt kenya they have about 30mps defending their seats.
If it was normal election - you'd expect about 60 percent to retain their seats - 18mps
But party will kill about half of those - so roughly 9 will make it - by sheer force of their personality and work.
Someone like Maoka Maore of Ntonyiriri has been elected in almost any party.
Someone like Kamket or Arama of Nakuru may get elected in any party.
So a few of those..
But in Central proper - Jubilee may get punished.
Kiamba - Kariri was 70 percent popular - got bought by Uhuru - 2nd guy was also bought by Uhuru - Ruto went for young man Kawanjiku - unkown hustler
And he won.
Jubilee right now popularity nationwide is 3-5 percent.
Generally Jubilee will score better than Wiper - about 20-30 MPs - with heavy funding from Uhuru and gov coffers.
ODM will be around 40-50mps
Wiper usual 20mps
The rest less than that.
UDA will get almost 200mps

Whoever is saying jubilee is dead is dead wrong. There are so many candidates who will run and win with a jubilee ticket in central Kenya.